Are Sanctions on Iran Really about Oil?

Published in Nanfang Daily
(China) on 16 April 2012
by Fang Kecheng (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Michelle Deeter. Edited by Casey J. Skeens.
On April 10, Iran announced that it was going to stop exporting oil to Spain, and very soon it may stop selling oil to Germany and Italy. Four days later, Iran met with major powers of the world in Istanbul to discuss its nuclear program.

As the situation in Iran has become more and more urgent, the voices in the streets are getting louder and louder: The West, in particular the United States, is constantly stirring up trouble, and ultimately its goal is to get more oil. As it moves from Afghanistan to Iraq, from Libya to Iran, has the U.S. Army really been rushing towards oil fields instead of battlefields?

Interestingly, in March, China reiterated its disapproval of Washington’s unilateral sanctions on Iran. On the other side of the Pacific Ocean, there are many Americans who believe that China does not support America’s unilateral sanctions on Iran because China wants Iran’s oil.

As nations make complex calculations on national interests, energy issues strongly affect diplomacy and decisions to go to war. However, the relationship between nations is not as simple as fighting a war to rob another country of its oil.

America Fights Wars While China Gets a Free Ride

Even though the Middle East is undoubtedly an oil depot for the rest of the world, the total amount and the percentage of oil that the United States imports from the Middle East has already begun to gradually decrease.

Since 2008, the average amount of crude oil that the U.S. has imported from Iraq has fallen from 627,000 barrels, to 449,000 barrels, to 415,000 barrels, and finally 460,000 barrels (barrels of oil per day). That is approximately 31.22; 22.36; 20.67; and 22.21 million tons of oil per year, respectively. Before the Iraq War started in 2001, the U.S. imported 795,000 barrels of oil per day, or approximately 39.59 million tons of oil per year.

Meanwhile, China’s imports of crude oil from Iraq since 2008 have increased from 1.86 million, to 7.16 million, to 11.24 million, to 13.77 million tons per year.

After enduring a controversial war in Iraq for eight years and sacrificing the lives of thousands of soldiers, the amount of oil that the U.S. has gained from Iraq has not increased. In the meantime, Iraq has increased its oil exports to China. In 2009, the new Iraqi government held a second public bid for its oil fields, and a joint venture of BP and the China National Petroleum Corporation won the bid for the largest field, called Rumaila.

In truth, America’s biggest source of crude oil in the Middle East — Saudi Arabia — is a strategic ally. The U.S. imports more oil from Canada and Mexico than it does from Saudi Arabia. In 2011, these three countries provided more than half of the crude oil that the U.S. imported. In comparison, Iraq’s oil is not nearly as important.

“If America went to war in Iraq to get its oil, then after the war, it should have the decisive power to obtain oil in Iraq, and it should also have advantages in terms of trade and investment,” Bo Kong, assistant research professor at the Energy, Resources and Environment Program at John Hopkins University, said. “But that is not the case.”

The situation in Iraq played out again in Afghanistan. In 2011, after the Taliban regime collapsed, the first company to win the bidding to develop the gas and oil fields was China National Petroleum Corporation. Of course, Afghanistan is not a country with abundant petroleum resources. It depends on imports for diesel, gas and other fuels. The agreement between the Afghan government and CNPC was the first international oil production agreement signed by Afghanistan for several decades.

As for Libya, it stopped being a source of oil for the United States in 1983. After the economic sanctions were lifted in 2003, the amount of oil that the U.S. imported from Libya decreased to an almost negligible amount, while CNPC made major investments in Libya. According to statistics, approximately 11 percent of its crude oil is exported to China. In 2009, Libya was listed ninth on the list of Top Ten Suppliers of Oil to China.

The sudden war caused CNPC, who had just signed a contract with the Gadhafi regime, to sustain major losses. However, CNPC has already returned to Libya in search of new opportunities.

“The U.S. mobilized a great amount of military resources, but China barely committed any military resources. China had an opportunity to get a free ride,” said Chen Fengying, director of the Institute of World Economic Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. An open and competitive market, a stable supply of oil and reasonable prices: These are the things that China and other emerging markets gained “for free” after the war.

Oil as an Economic Sanction on Iran?

If the war was not to get oil, then what was it for?

According to Chen, America values the strategic importance of these countries. “America needs oil, but it will not start a war purely for oil. Even though resources are important, they do not totally define America’s diplomatic strategy,” she said.

Bo pointed out that the motivation for the war was related to U.S. foreign policy priorities. “Both the Bush administration and the Obama administration are strongly against nuclear proliferation; it is one of the most important priorities in US foreign policy. After 9/11, Americans realized that the threat of a nuclear terrorist attack had increased. This terrorist attack could be an airplane crashing into nuclear facilities in the US, or it could be a small scale radiological weapon.”

Thus, Iran’s nuclear program has become one of the biggest worries troubling the Obama administration. To prevent the Middle East situation from getting mixed up with nuclear weapons, America has repeatedly recommended sanctions on Iran.

What is interesting is that one of the main weapons the U.S. has for implementing economic sanctions is oil. In March, President Obama authorized one of the strongest economic sanctions on oil on Iran. According to the measure, once sanction takes effect on June 28, any foreign financial institution that does business with Iran related to the oil trade will be subject to U.S. sanctions.

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hong Lei opposed the sanctions. “China has to consider its own economic development,” he said. “China legally imports oil from Iran through normal channels in a reasonable and fair manner. It is not violation of any UN resolution and does not impair the interests of any third party or international community. China has always been against unilateral sanctions imposed by any one country on another. We especially do not accept unilateral sanctions that are forcibly imposed on a third-party country.”

“It has always been difficult for Washington to win Beijing’s support,”* Brookings Institute Chinese Energy Research Fellow Erica Downs said. Downs believes that China has great economic interests in Iran and Beijing thinks strict sanctions are an effective strategy for solving global disagreements.

But in reality, China has already adjusted some of its economic activities in Iran according to the sanctions policy outlined by the U.S. and the United Nations. In August 2011, CNPC limited its investment in South Pars natural gas fields to $18 million, which was lower than the $20 million threshold stated in the U.S. sanction policy, and was much lower than the $400 million that Iran was expecting. At the same time, China followed the U.S. plan and did not take up the projects that were abandoned by Europe and Japan.

China was not only considering the importance of Sino-U.S. relations when it made these decisions. It had other considerations as well.

“China must consider the worries that other Middle Eastern countries have about Iran. Facing the pressure of its security misgivings and U.S. public relations, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly asked China to put economic sanctions on Iran,” Downs said. According to Downs, “Saudi Arabia promised to supply oil to China, and China does not want Saudi Arabia to be forced to develop nuclear weapons for self protection, which would disrupt oil production in the Middle East.”*

In terms of the distribution of China’s oil imports, 50 percent of oil comes from the Middle East. Clearly, China does not want this area to go to war.

This is where China and the U.S. have a common interest. If war broke out, world oil prices would increase, which would negatively impact the recovery of the U.S. economy and influence Obama’s re-election. Vice President Joe Biden spoke quite plainly: a military conflict in Iran would end Obama’s presidential career.

Chinese Diplomacy Limits Oil Profits

Since the 21st century, the percentage of oil imported to the U.S. from the Middle East has decreased, from 28.6 percent in 2001 to approximately 15 percent in 2011. The percentage of imports is gradually increasing for other countries on the American continent.

When this superpower no longer needs Middle Eastern oil, some observers become more worried about the possibility of war. For the past 20 years, the U.S. has not imported a single barrel of oil from Iran. Does that mean that Iran will start a war without considering any consequences?

Gao Shixian, Director of the Energy Economics and Strategy Research Center of the National Development and Reform Commission, said to the media: “When the U.S. decreased the amount of oil it imports from the Middle East, it may allow a more chaotic situation in the Middle East.”

An analyst at English oil giant BP talked with Chen about the possibility of the U.S. abandoning the Middle East, but Chen disagreed. “Unless the U.S. is no longer the strongest superpower and becomes the third or fourth biggest economy in the world, it is very unlikely to leave the Middle East. The Middle East does not only have oil, it is in a strategic location.”

She also pointed out, “America’s decreased presence has given other countries an opportunity to move forward, why not use it?”

Many people were worried that China’s dependence on foreign oil is reaching an alarming level of 60 percent. This could threaten China’s energy security. The International Energy Agency even predicted that China’s oil demand would increase to 10 million barrels per day in 2030, and at that point, its dependence on imported oil would reach 80 percent.

Chen believes that there is no need to exaggerate the situation. “As a result of geopolitics, China is different than America. America can use the American continent as a source of oil, while China will always be dependent on the Middle East,” she said. She added, “Furthermore, Middle Eastern Countries need to sell their oil, so they depend on China. Relations between China and Saudi Arabia have improved considerably recently.”

The fact that China’s oil reserves are insufficient has hindered China’s foreign policy. “Take the Iran question, for example. China’s oil interests mean that it has a limited room for maneuver in its foreign policy,” Bo said. “As long as a country imports oil, then there are a lot of factors that a local government cannot control. Considering China’s increasing dependence on the international oil market, China will continue to have to deal with uncontrollable factors, no matter whether or not there are changes in the source of imported oil.”

But the strategic significance of oil is decreasing. First, as the economies of many countries are recovering, there have not been any oil shortages. The price of oil actually dropped from its height at the end of last year before the holidays. Second, unconventional gas and renewable energy is booming, which is changing the game for world energy.

Shale gas is a unconventional gas which is extracted from shale. It is difficult to exploit and costly, but some progress has been made in North America recently. According to predictions, between 11 trillion and 13 trillion shale gas reserves exist in the world, greatly surpassing the approximately 400 billion tons of conventional oil reserves.

Bo said, “China’s unconventional natural gas reserves surpass even that of the United States. If China can revolutionize the shale natural gas industry, that would mean that China would have new bargaining chips and a completely new status concerning the international oil and gas market.”


*Editor's note: the original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.


美国为首的西方国家制裁伊朗,真是为了石油?

2012年4月10日,伊朗宣布已经停止向西班牙出口石油,可能很快还会中止对德国和意大利的石油销售。四天后,伊朗与世界主要大国将于伊斯坦布尔重启核问题谈判。
  随着伊朗局势再度告急,坊间流传甚广的声音再度高涨:以美国为首的西方国家四处“挑事儿”,最终目的都是为了石油。从阿富汗到伊拉克,从利比亚到伊朗,美国大兵们真的是冲着油田而去的吗?
  有趣的是,2012年3月,中方再次明确表示反对华盛顿提出的对伊朗单边制裁。在大洋彼岸,也有不少美国人认为:中国不支持美国对伊朗的单边制裁,完全是为了从伊朗获得石油。
  在国家之间复杂的利益计算中,能源的确深刻影响着外交和战争决策,但它们之间的关系并非“打仗抢石油”那么简单。
  美国打仗,中国“搭便车”
  尽管中东作为世界“油库”的地位毋庸置疑,美国从中东进口的原油数量及其占总进口的比重都已逐年下降。
  2008年以来,美国每年从伊拉克进口的原油量为:627、449、415、460千桶/天,约合3122、2236、2067、2291万吨/年。战争发动前的2001年,这个数字是795千桶/天,约合3959万吨/年。
  而中国在2008年以来每年从伊拉克进口原油的变化情况为:186、716、1124、1377万吨/年。
  经过8年饱受争议的伊拉克战争,付出数千名士兵的生命为代价,美国从伊拉克获取石油的份额并未上升,反倒是伊拉克出口到中国的石油大增。2009年,伊拉克新政府重启石油公开招标,中标最大项目鲁迈拉油田的,是中石油和英国石油公司(BP)组成的联合团队。
  实际上,美国在中东的最重要原油供应地是其战略同盟——沙特,而来自加拿大和墨西哥的原油供应量比沙特还多。2011年,这三个国家共同为美国提供了超过一半的原油进口。相比之下,伊拉克的石油地位并不那么重要。
  “如果美国发动伊拉克战争是为了获取石油,那么战后它首先应该获得资源分配上的决定性权力,以及贸易上、投资上的绝对优势。”美国约翰•霍普金斯大学能源、资源及环境项目研究主任孔博说,“但这三点都不存在。”
  与伊拉克类似的情节在阿富汗重演——2011年,塔利班政权垮台后的第一个油气田 开发竞标,获胜者还是中石油。当然,阿富汗并不是一个拥有丰富石油资源的国家,该国的柴油、汽油等燃料甚至完全依赖进口。阿富汗政府与中石油的合同,是过 去几十年里的第一项国际石油生产协议。
  至于利比亚,它从1983年开始就不再是美国的石油来源地。2003年制裁解除 后,美国从利比亚的原油进口也少到几乎可以忽略,而中国石油企业则在利比亚大量投资。数据显示,利比亚大约11%的原油出口中国。2009年,该国还登上 了“中国十大原油来源国”榜单,位居第九。
  突如其来的战争令与卡扎菲政府签订合同的中国石油企业损失惨重,但现在它们已经重回利比亚,寻求新机会。
  “美国动用了那么多的军事力量,中国在军事方面没有丝毫付出,但获得了‘搭便车’的机会。”中国现代国际关系研究院世界经济研究所所长陈凤英说。开放的商业竞争、稳定的石油供应、合理的价格水平,这些都是包括中国在内的新兴市场国家在战后搭上的“便车”。
用石油制裁伊朗?
  如果打仗不是为了抢石油,那是为了什么?
  陈凤英认为,美国看重的是这些国家的战略地位。“美国需要石油,但不会纯粹为了石油发动战争。资源虽然重要,但不是外交战略的全部。”
  孔博则指出,战争的动机与美国外交政策的优先次序有关。“不论是布什政府还是奥巴马政府,反对核扩散都在外交政策中排得相当靠前。因为9•11以后,美国人认识到,美国受到核恐怖事件的威胁增加了。这种核恐怖事件有可能是飞机撞向美国的核设施,也可能是小规模脏弹。”
  于是,伊朗的核计划成为奥巴马政府的心头大患。为了防止中东局势被核武器搅乱,美国屡次三番提出制裁伊朗的建议。
  有趣的是,美国对伊朗制裁的主要武器之一,正是石油。2012年3月,奥巴马核准了一项有史以来对伊朗最大的石油经济制裁。根据这项法案,美国政府可在6月28日后制裁仍与伊朗从事有关石油交易的外国银行。
  中国外交部发言人洪磊对此表示反对:“中国从自身经济发展需要出发,通过正常渠道 从伊朗进口原油,合情合理合法,不违反联合国安理会有关决议,也不损害第三方和国际社会的利益。中方一贯反对一国根据其国内法对另一国实施单边制裁,更不 会接受将单边制裁强加于第三国的做法。”
  “华盛顿很难获得北京的支持。”布鲁金斯学会中国能源研究员邓丽嘉(Erica Downs)认为,中国在伊朗有大规模的经济利益,而且,北京从不认为严格的制裁是解决国际纠纷的有效手段。
  但实际上,中国已经依据美国和联合国的制裁方针调整了部分在伊经济活动。2011 年8月,中石油在南帕斯天然气田的投资只有1800万美元,低于美国制裁法案的2000万门槛,更远远低于伊朗期望的4亿美元。同时,中国依照美国的法 案,没有接手欧洲和日本企业抛弃的工程。
  这些做法不仅出于顾及维持中美关系的重要性,还有其他方面的考虑。
  “中国必须考虑其他中东国家对伊朗的疑虑。沙特阿拉伯在自身安全顾虑和美国公关的双重压力下,屡屡劝说中国加入对伊朗的制裁。”邓丽嘉分析,“沙特向中国保证了石油供应,而中国也不希望沙特为了自我防卫而开发核武器,从而扰乱中东石油产地的秩序。”
  中国的石油进口版图中,来自中东地区的石油达到51%,显然中国并不愿看到这片区域陷入战争。
  在此方面,中美具有共同利益。如果战争爆发,世界油价将被推高,这对美国经济的复苏也会构成巨大的冲击,并影响奥巴马的连任目标。美国副总统拜登曾直言:与伊朗发生军事冲突可能终结奥巴马的总统生涯。
中国外交受限石油利益
  进入21世纪以来,来自中东的原油在美国原油进口中的比例已经从2001年的28.6%下降到了2011年的15%左右,美洲国家的比重则逐渐上升。
  当这个超级大国不再像之前那样需要中东的石油,又令一些观察者产生了战争的忧虑:美国已经20年没有从伊朗进口过一桶原油了,这是否会令它可以更从容地挑起战争?
  发改委能源经济与发展战略研究中心主任高士宪曾对媒体表示:“当美国减少从中东进口石油后,美国可能会容许一个局势更加混乱的中东存在。”
  英国BP的一位分析师也曾与陈凤英谈起过美国“放弃中东”的可能性,但陈凤英并不同意:“除非美国不再是最强大的帝国,退到世界经济体的第3、第4位,否则它不可能退出中东。因为中东不只有石油,还有重要的战略地位。”
  她同时指出:“美国的收缩,就给我们留出了前进的空间,为什么不去利用呢?”
  很多人担心,中国的石油对外依存度已经接近60%的警戒线,这可能给能源安全带来威胁。国际能源机构甚至断定:中国的石油需求将在2030年达到每天1000万桶,而那时进口石油的比例将占到80%。
  陈凤英则认为,这种担忧无需夸大。“地缘政治决定我们跟美国不一样,美国有美洲作为石油来源地,我们则绕不开中东”,她说,“何况,中东国家的石油需要卖出去,它们也依附于我们。最近,中沙关系就得到了明显的改善。”
  中国在石油储量上的不足也限制了中国的外交决策。“比如伊朗问题,石油利益的确使 中国外交的回旋余地受到了限制。”孔博说,“只要有石油进口,就有当地政治造成的很多不可控因素。鉴于中国对国际石油市场不断加深的整体依赖,这种不可控 因素的影响并不会因为具体进口来源的变化而从本质上减少。”
  但石油的战略意义正在下降。一方面,由于各国经济复苏缓慢,石油并未陷入短缺,欧美汽油价格甚至在上一个冬季用油高峰——年末长假前稳中有降;另一方面,非常规油气和新能源的开发如火如荼,也正改变着世界能源格局。
  页岩油气是来自岩石中的非常规油气资源,开采难度大、成本高,但最近在北美取得突破进展。据预测,全世界页岩油储量约11万亿至13万亿吨,远超4000多亿吨的世界常规石油储量。
  孔博介绍说,“中国的非常规天然气储量甚至超过美国,如果中国的页岩天然气革命能够实现,那就意味着中国在以后的国际油气市场谈判中,拥有完全不一样的筹码和地位。”

This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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