Having Failed to Convince the US, Is Russia Preparing to Capitulate on the Issue of the Missile Defense System?

A two-week international conference on the problems of the Ballistic Missile Defense system concludes in Moscow

The political-military leadership of Russia convened a special two-week international conference in Moscow on the problems of the BMD system established by the U.S. and its NATO partners, but did not manage to convince the foreign participants that this system will soon begin to threaten the security of our country. No matter how much the Russian organizers of the event tried to demonstrate, with the aid of computer graphics on a screen, how the missile interceptors of the so-called European BMD system could easily shoot down Russian intercontinental missiles, the experts visiting Moscow – most of all the Americans – stubbornly continued to affirm that the BMD system under development will not threaten Russia.

Actually, this reaction from the guests is almost exclusively a propaganda measure previously predicted by many of our independent experts. On the eve of the conference, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy on Geopolitical Affairs, told the “Russian News Service” in an interview that the event would be absolutely ineffective.

"The Americans are cowboys at heart. They will never yield to the weak. We are not showing the Americans anything new. They well know the condition of our defense systems and track all of our nuclear missile forces online," he explained. "We need to seek other means of neutralizing the BMD threats,"* urged the expert.

The truth of his words was indirectly confirmed by the guests' reaction to those rare threats –also mostly of a propagandistic nature– which the Russian organizers of the event allowed themselves. It had to be difficult for Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Nikolai Makarov to announce from the conference podium, that for "the defeat of BMD components... in the south and the northwest of Russia, new strike weapons could be emplaced, including the deployment of the Iskander missile system in the Kaliningrad area,"* which "shocked" a few of the European guests there.

"He spoke so simply about the possibility of a strike on the countries where elements of the NATO BMD will be located, as if we are still in the middle of the Cold War!" complained a high-ranking western delegate who asked not to be named, in a meeting with a Kommersant correspondent. "This is more like blackmail than an attempt at cooperation."

This begs an opposing question: "And so, do you want Moscow not to react to threats arising in connection with the deployment of the BMD system?"*

However, something still does not allow for the statements by the Russian political-military leadership to be taken too seriously, and that fact, obviously, is felt by our western "partners" as well. Recall that on the eve of the conference, a highly placed Kremlin source told “RIA News” that Russia and the US must agree on the problems of missile defense.

"There needs to be a broader view on BMD. Our evaluation is clear. We need to work together to identify threats. We applaud Obama, who has reviewed it in those specific instances where it has been designed. There is still time before 2018. It is certain that we will agree. There is such a possibility, to agree so that there will be no damage to either their security, or ours."*

And that, we note, was announced by the same mouthpiece who last year factually ordered the Russian representative on the UN Security Council to vote for the resolution which allowed for the removal of the Qaddafi regime. That moment of the abrupt change in Moscow's position on the Libyan issue also marked the first appearance of the "highly placed Kremlin source." And the voice of that nameless mouthpiece turned out to be much more significant than the opinion of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And isn't it a green light from this same "highly placed source" that on the eve of the Moscow conference the head of the Russian General Staff blurted out that Russia takes the Iranian threat into account and therefore has conducted consultations with the Americans on BMD? The indignant reaction of independent Russian experts is, "What the hell, what 'Iranian threat?’" Iran still has no nuclear weapons, and no means for their delivery. Israel, India and Pakistan all have nuclear weapons on hand. Nevertheless, this statement was a planned path toward agreement with the U.S. on missile defense, so "compromise" with the Americans on BMD may be possible, and not far off.

Just what kind of "compromise" that would be is not too hard to predict even now: giving up, which will be very reminiscent of capitulation, parallel to Russia's surrender of its current potential allies. After all, the Americans are not prepared to cede their European BMD. It is noteworthy that when the U.S. Special Envoy for Strategic Stability and Missile Defense, Ellen Tauscher, was asked at the Moscow conference whether the U.S. would relinquish their plans to deploy the BMD system if there were no threat from Iran, the American firmly answered, "No, all four phases [of European BMD]."*

*Editor's note: This statement, while accurately translated, could not be verified.