G-8: Obama and Hollande Face Merkel

227

June 3, 2012

Published in Le Figaro
(France) on 18 May 2012
by Pierre Rousselin (link to original link to original)

Translated from by Eliza Perrotta. Edited by Tom Proctor .

The immediate purpose of the "union" unfolding between Hollande and Obama regarding growth is to face the possibility of Greece’s exit from the eurozone.

While Angela Merkel thinks that Greece’s exit from the eurozone would be manageable, Obama fears that this might trigger a major crisis in Europe, which would quickly spread to the U.S. and ruin his chances of re-election in November. This is the reason why the U.S. president supports Hollande’s stance and wants the G-8 to give priority to the Greek crisis.

This Franco-American union risks antagonizing the German chancellor, who would like the June 17 legislative elections in Greece to be a referendum on the euro. (The Greek translation of her proposals seems to have caused some misunderstandings in Athens....) This implies that a Greek “no” to the euro would be followed by Greece’s exit from the EU. Such a precedent would open a Pandora’s box and risk triggering a dismantling of the eurozone. It’s a risk that Paris (supported by Washington) is not ready to take, even if it means showing “solidarity” and relaxing the conditions made in Athens, which Berlin does not want to hear about....

La "convergence" qui se dessine entre François Hollande et Barack Obama à propos de la croissance a pour objet immédiat la conduite à tenir face à l'éventualité d'une sortie de la Grèce de la zone euro.

Alors qu'Angela Merkel pense qu'une sortie de la Grèce de la zone euro peut être gérable, Barack Obama redoute que cela ne déclenche une crise majeure en Europe, qui se propagerait très vite aux Etats-Unis et ruinerait ses chances de réélection en novembre. C'est la raison pour laquelle le président américain soutient la position de Hollande et veut que le G8 se penche en priorité sur la crise grecque.

Cette convergence franco-américaine risque de contrarier la chancelière allemande qui voudrait que les législatives du 17 juin en Grèce soient un referendum sur l'euro (la traduction en grec de ses propos à ce sujet semble avoir suscité une certaine incompréhension à Athènes...).Cela implique qu'un "non" des Grecs à l'euro serait suivi par la sortie de la Grèce de l'Union monétaire. Un tel précédent ouvrirait une boîte de Pandore et risquerait de déclencher un démantèlement de la zone euro. C'est un risque que Paris (soutenu par Washington) n'est pas prêt à prendre, quitte à faire preuve de "solidarité" et assouplir les conditions faites à Athènes. Ce dont Berlin ne veut pas entendre parler...

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