Netanyahu and Romney

Published in Veja
(Brazil) on 5 July 2012
by Ciao Blinder (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jane Dorwart. Edited by Audrey Agot.
Iran’s belligerent rhetoric has increased these past days (Yes, that is possible). With the beginning of the European oil embargo and a lack of prospects in the nuclear negotiations with the international community (such as the accusations of Iran's military aspirations, which the Tehran denies). We are met with Iranian promises of launching missiles to destroy 35 American bases in the Middle East and Central Asia, in a matter of minutes. Also, new missile tests have been performed, capable of attacking Israel. And in the fusillade of bravado, there are renewed threats of closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's commercial oil supply passes – all this if there is a United States or Israeli attack against Iranian nuclear installations.

Will an attack come or not? There is one theory that President Barrack Obama (who, if we recall, once said all options were on the table) is doing what he can to counter the impetuous Israelis at least up until the November election (his re-election?). What does his Republican opponent Mitt Romney think of all of this?

My guru on the subjects of nuclear iran, Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic said that Romney is an odd position after his announcement that he will be in Israel, probably at the end of July, to meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu. If Israel attacks right after his visit, it could have the smell of a conspiracy – it is no secret that Netanyahu prefers a Republican like Romney in the White House. On a less sinister note, a visit would at the least signify Romney’s endorsement of the more belligerent plans of Israel.

These American electoral presidential visits outside the country are unusual. Four years ago Obama and then-candidate Sen. John McCain also were in Israel during the campaign. Obama never returned to the country as president, which is a just reason for needling on Romney’s part. With this upcoming visit, the Republican candidate wants to court the Jewish electorate in the U.S., who are overwhelmingly in favor of the Democrats.

Goldberg now considers it improbable that an Israeli attack will occur this early and estimates that Romney’s visit may hinder Netanyahu. But clearly he protects himself with the expression that “anything is possible." I'll follow his lead and say the same.


Netanyahu & Romney

A retórica beligerante iraniana aumentou nos últimos dias (sim, isto é possível), com o início do embargo petrolífero europeu e a falta de perspectivas nas negociações nucleares com a comunidade internacional (com as acusações de propósitos militares, o que é negado por Teerã). Temos as promessas iranianas de lançar mísseis e destruir 35 bases americanas no Oriente Médio e Ásia Central, em questão de minutos. Também foram realizados novos testes com mísseis, capazes de atingirem Israel. E na fuzilaria de bravatas, há as renovadas ameaças de fechamento do estreito de Ormuz, por onde passam 20% do petróleo comercializado no mundo. Tudo isto se houver um ataque dos EUA ou de Israel às instalações nucleares iranianas.
E o ataque vem ou não vem? Existe a teoria de que o presidente Barack Obama (que de vez em quando lembra que todas as opções estão na mesa) faz o que pode para conter os ímpetos israelenses pelo menos até a eleição de novembro (e sua reeleição). E o que o oponente republicano Mitt Romney acha de tudo isso?
Meu guru para assuntos nucleares iranianos, Jeffrey Goldberg, da revista e site The Atlantic, diz que o anúncio de Romney de que estará em Israel, provavelmente no finalzinho de julho, para se encontrar com o primeiro-ministro Benjamin Netanyahu, o coloca numa posição esquisita. Se Israel atacar na sequência da visita, pode cheirar conspiração (não é segredo que Netanhyau prefere um republicano como Romney na Casa Branca). Sendo menos sinistro,  a visita pode pelo menos significar um aval de Romney aos planos mais beligerantes de Israel.
Estas visitas eleitorais de presidenciáveis americanos ao exterior são de praxe. Há quatro anos, Barack Obama e o então candidato republicano John McCain também estiveram em Israel durante a campanha (Obama nunca voltou ao país como presidente, o que é motivo justo de alfinetadas da parte de Romney). E com a visita agora, o candidato republicano quer cortejar o eleitorado judaico nos EUA, maciçamente a favor dos democratas.
Goldberg ainda considera improvável que ocorra um ataque israelense tão cedo e avalia que esta visita de Romney inclusive bloqueia Netanyahu. Mas claro que ele se protege com o clichê “tudo é possível”. Eu também.
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