Obama’s Mouth and Romney’s Money

Published in Nanfang Daily
(China) on 9 July 2012
by Dang Jian Jun (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Lanlan Jin. Edited by Jonathan Douglas.
A recent report claimed that U.S. President Barack Obama has been calling his wealthy supporters in the hope that they would contribute more capital toward his campaign, because he “cannot complete the work for re-election alone.”* Or to put it more bluntly: hurry up and donate, or else my re-election dream bubble will burst.

The backdrop to Obama’s words is that Romney’s campaign funds exceeded that of the Obama camp for the first time during May of this year; simultaneously, the curtain has just been lifted for the presidential election. Many are aware that Romney is a billionaire with many other billionaires backing him. After beating out the other Republican nominees, Romney’s fundraising machine has clearly accelerated. His momentum has placed immense pressure on Obama and the Obama campaign’s camp. Before calling his rich supporters, Obama once said that unless his supporters increase their contributions, he might become the first president in recent U.S. history to have a running opponent with greater campaign funds.

Generally speaking, the speech savvy Obama should have an easier time winning over crowds than the often incoherent Romney. The reason that Obama was able to stand out among the Democrats and win the election back in 2008 was precisely because of his eloquence. Obama’s oratory skills not only won over a great number of supporters, but also secured substantial donations. In fact, in the 2008 election, Obama’s campaign funds exceeded that of any single presidential candidate in American history, including that of the Republican candidate. It can be said that high popularity combined with a high monetary basis together delivered Obama to the White House. Perhaps his past experience has taught Obama that copious amounts of campaign finance is essential for a campaign’s success.

The current situation can be attributed to the variability of public opinion, especially that of neutral voters and swing voters. These voters are unlike hardcore Republican or Democratic supporters who have relatively fixed and defined political expectations; their positions may shift as a result of external influences, and their votes are more likely to change depending on the tides of political sentiment. At the same time, such groups often hold decisive significance on the outcome of presidential elections.

Undoubtedly, these voters comprise the major space for contention between Obama and Romney, and are the primary target audience for various campaign ads. In order to attract this portion of the electorate, one needs to influence their desires and emotions, and elicit contempt for the opponent to make them cast a vote for oneself. Yet to have an impact on voters, one needs to be constantly churning out campaign ads and continually launching them at prime time on mainstream TV and mainstream news publications to gain the upper hand in the battle of the campaign ads. All of these tactics require a considerable sum of money. Just as Obama has said, whether or not he can gain more votes from swing states supporters depends directly on the quantity and quality of his campaign ads, as well as the generosity of his wealthy supporters. His success is thus contingent upon whether or not he has sufficient campaign funds.

In other words, no matter how eloquent Obama can come off, if the number of Obama campaign ads is less than Romney’s and if his propaganda megaphone is more hushed than Romney’s, he just might lose to the ostentatiously wealthy Romney, who has ads covering from land to sea. More simply put, in this U.S. presidential election, Obama’s mouth might not work as well as Romney’s money.

*Editor’s Note: The quotation, though accurately translated, could not be verified.


党建军:奥巴马的嘴和罗姆尼的钱

近日有报道说,美国总统奥巴马向支持自己的富豪们打电话,希望他们为其连任竞选捐更多的钱,因为他“自己无法完成竞选连任这项工作”。更直接点说就是,“赶紧捐钱吧,不然我的竞选连任梦就要泡汤。”

  奥巴马说这番话的背景是,今年5月,罗姆尼竞选阵营筹款金额首次超过了奥巴马阵营;与此同时,美国总统大选的大幕才刚刚拉开。很多人都知道,罗姆尼是个亿万富翁,在他的身后还站着不少亿万富翁支持者;在击败共和党党内对手,获得总统候选人提名后,罗姆尼的筹款机器已明显加速。这样的势头已经让奥巴马及其竞选阵营感受到了莫大压力。在给富豪支持者们打电话之前,奥巴马就曾说过,除非支持者们增加捐款,否则,他可能成为美国现代历史上第一个竞选资金被对手超过的在任总统。

  当然,这并不是说,美国总统大选就是单纯的筹款竞赛,但竞选资金多少无疑与竞选的成败有着重大关系。就像奥巴马本人所说,他的竞选能力和在关键摇摆州的广告能力都直接取决于富有支持者的慷慨程度。

  一般都认为,面对讲话经常不着调的罗姆尼,擅长演讲的奥巴马更容易笼络人心。要知道,奥巴马当年之所以能在民主党内脱颖而出,并在2008年的总统大选中胜出,靠的就是其雄辩的口才。奥巴马的口才为他赢得的不只是大批支持者,还有随之而来的大笔捐款。实际上,在2008年的总统大选中,奥巴马的竞选资金就超过了美国历史上任何一名总统候选人,当然也包括他的共和党对手。可以说,高人气加上巨额资金,一起将奥巴马送进了白宫。或许,也正是这段经历让奥巴马意识到,充足的竞选资金是竞选成功所必不可少的。

  之所以如此,因为民意的变化向来无常,尤其是中间选民和摇摆选民。这些选民并不像铁杆的共和党或民主党支持者那样,有着相对固定且明确的政治意愿;他们的立场更因外部因素的影响而变动,他们手中的选票更可能因政治情绪的波动而改变方向。与此同时,这样一个群体对大选的结果往往又具有决定性意义。

  毫无疑问,这些选民正是奥巴马和罗姆尼争夺的主要对象,他们也恰是各种竞选广告的主要目标。为吸引这部分选民,就需要影响他们的意愿、情绪,让他们讨厌对手,投自己的票;而要影响选民,就需要不断地推出竞选广告,在主流电视台的黄金时段和主流报纸的黄金版面连续轰炸,在竞选广告的大战中占据上风。所有这些,都需要巨额的资金。正如奥巴马所说,他能否在关键摇摆州的支持者中获得更多的选票,直接取决于竞选广告的质量和数量,即取决于富有支持者的慷慨程度,从而也就取决于竞选资金的充足与否。

  换句话说,奥巴马即使口才再好,如果竞选广告不如罗姆尼多, 向民众喊话的声音不如罗姆尼大,他也可能会输给财大气粗、竞选广告铺天盖地的罗姆尼。更简单点说,在美国总统大选中,奥巴马的嘴可能不比罗姆尼的钱更管用。
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