A Cautious U.S.Welcome Given to al-Sisi

U.S. officials have been making unremitting efforts to assess the repercussions of Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi’s decision to get rid of prominent military leaders last Sunday. It seems that the new defense minister, General abdul-Fattah al-Sisi, has gained the confidence of these officials. He enjoyed a strong relationship with the United States during his time as head of Egyptian military intelligence.

Evidently the extensive that President Morsi had made to Egypt’s military leadership, such as his forcible retirement of the Defense minister and unit commanders, who were appointed by former president Hosni Mubarak, have come as a surprise to the United States. However, U.S. officials did not voice concern last Sunday night. They pointed out that what happened is nothing but a natural change that is due to the emergence of a new generation, a process that has led the current leaders to dispense with figures who have lost popularity and become isolated in post-revolution Egypt.

U.S. officials denied rumors spread last Sunday evening that al-Sisi is an Islamic figure who conducts a classified relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood. On the contrary, officials believe that he is a well-known figure to the U.S. military, having spent a year in vocational training in the United States. He is generally seen as an active head of Egyptian military intelligence. What is certain is that the Muslim Brotherhood, which Morsi has long been a member of, has tightened its grip on Egypt. The organization recently took control of the army, the presidency and the parliament, which can be seen either as an example of democracy with civilian control over the military or as a coup d’état by the Muslim Brotherhood, depending to viewpoint of the person making the judgement. In reality, it is probably a combination.

The U.S. viewpoint is that the substitution of aging senior military commanders does not raise concerns in itself. What would raise U.S. concerns is if Morsi were to proceed with making changes in the judiciary, a government branch that has remained a significant independent stronghold since the revolution that toppled Mubarak in February 2011. Concerns about the Egyptian judiciary were increased by Morsi’s appointment of eminent judge Mahmoud Mekki as vice president. It is feared that Mekki, as a former judge, will reject the decisions made by the courts.

Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who has been dismissed from his post as defense minister, has become a symbol of the isolation and incompetence of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, a group that ruled the country until Morsi arrived in power. It was clear that the Council's days were numbered, yet Morsi‘s measures came as suddenly as a coup d’état. U.S officials do not have evidence that the cleansing process has been planned or discussed between leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. Instead, Morsi took advantage of the terrorist attack perpetrated in Sinai last week, which resulted in the killing of 16 Egyptian soldiers, using it as a pretext for appointing new army commanders. The first major change occurred last Thursday, when Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Murad Muwafi, who had been praised by U.S., European and Israeli officials, was dismissed because he was pushing for several months to thwart terrorist groups in the Sinai.

Al-Sisi was seen as an assistant to Muwafi, although he is less linked to the fight against terrorism. He has met with John Brennan, the head of the White House’s counter-terrorism unit. One military official said about Sisi that: “He is a serious man who demonstrates a serious level of cooperation.” (Please check quote, Mouhsine). Sisi, like Muwafi, is in contact with the Israeli leadership as head of military intelligence. It is said that the Israelis are more concerned about the process of cleansing carried out by Morsi on Sunday. What worries them is the possibility that Morsi might take other steps that could lead to a clash with Israel. However, for the United States and Israel monitoring developments in Egypt is similar to riding a tiger: it could quite ferocious, but it is impossible to steer it.