US' Intentions to Re-Cut the Global Wealth Map

Published in China Newsweek Network
(China) on 28 August 2012
by Zhang YuGui (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Leah Averitt. Edited by .

Edited by Peter L. McGuire

Three years ago, when Obama came before the G-20 summit in Pittsburgh putting forth a slogan of global economic rebalancing, many Chinese people believed that it was an American attempt to divert the international community. They believed Obama was creating diversions by arranging for a tactical reform of the financial system. However, in recent years, it has been shown that the U.S. is genuine in this case. On one hand, the U.S. continues to get help from China’s power for its stable economic fundamentals. On the other hand, through the launch of a new industrial revolution, it is attempting to re-occupy the global economic system’s high points. American financial leaders also decided to change its economic development preferences over the coming years.

The U.S. is well-aware of the excessive pursuit of the financial industry’s development in the past. Moreover, relying on the U.S. dollar as the standard and the globalization dividend method is not conducive to the continued prosperity and stability of the U.S. economy. Especially after the enhancement of the China’s economic competitiveness by abandoning preferences for “financial witchcraft,” there has been an emphasis on real industry and exports. This is to reverse the decline of the United States in international economic competition. Indeed, the financial sector is overdeveloped, and this has a very strong negative effect. Manufacturing represents real industrial development. A longer industrial chain can achieve a reasonable distribution of wealth, which is especially important in raising the employment rate.

One of the significant signs of the U.S. layout of economic transformation is the cultivation of the industrial revolution and technological progress. From a historical perspective, often the most difficult economic period is the critical time when there is a preliminary round of exploratory discussions regarding technology and the industrial revolution. Economic recovery after a crisis, in addition to the macroeconomic policies to stimulate the economy, often result in new technologies and new industries. Today, big data, smart manufacturing and the Wi-Fi revolution are representatives of the third time that technological change is brewing and beginning to take shape in the U.S. If these three representatives of the new technological revolution are able to set off a new round of industrial revolution (plus the Apple platform is speeding up the economy and extending market boundaries), the U.S. industrial system will create a new engine of economic growth in the next decade.

After China surpassed them in the field of traditional manufacturing industries, the United States vowed to maintain a leading edge in high-end manufacturing. High-end manufacturing is the core objective of the U.S.’ "re-industrialization" strategy. The United States has officially launched a high-end manufacturing plan. In the fields of nanotechnology, high-end batteries, new energy, the new generation of microelectronics research and development, high-end robots and other fields aiming to increase investment in science and technology, the United States intends to promote the development of high-end talent, essentials and innovation at home. The U.S. also wishes to maintain its lead in the research and development in the field of high-end manufacturing, leading technologies and manufacturing leadership. Leading research and development infrastructure, the advantages of financial services as well as a wealth of new experience in the technology industry make it possible for the United States to again occupy the high points of the new round of the global industrial system of labor division.

With the weakening of China’s cost dominance, more and more U.S. companies are considering the move of production bases originally located overseas back to the U.S. “Made in the USA” cost dominance is emerging. The British Financial Times reported that from early 2010 until now, U.S. manufacturing employment grew by 2.9 percent. Germany and Canada’s rate increased by 2.4 percent and 1.9 percent respectively. From 2002-2010, U.S. manufacturing unit labor costs in dollar terms fell by 11 percent. Japanese and German manufacturing unit labor costs in U.S. dollars rose by 3 percent and 41 percent respectively. In a recently released report, the Boston Consulting Group believed that in the next five years, it is most likely that manufacturing industries returning to the U.S. will include means of transport, electronic equipment and instruments, furniture, plastic and rubber products, machinery, metal products and the computer industry. Nearly 70 percent of the merchandise in these categories of goods accounted for U.S. imports from China. On average, U.S. consumers’ annual consumption of these goods amounted to $2 trillion.

Over the past decade, China’s manufacturing industry has obtained remarkable production abilities. In 2010, manufacturing output in China surpassed the United States’ for the first time. It accounted for 19.8 percent of global manufacturing output and was among the “world’s first,” leading the U.S. by 0.4 percentage points. China is also regarded as one of the few countries that has a global manufacturing sector that is high, medium and low, representing a relatively complete industrial chain.

The recent series of economic competitiveness in the U.S. economy is based on forging strategic considerations. If, while the United States is restructuring its entities of industrial competitive advantage, there is successful devaluation of the American dollar, the appreciation of the yuan will achieve rapid growth in exports. This may not only break the American consumer with Chinese production’s division of labor, but it will also greatly squeeze China's core interests in the global value chain. On the other hand, if the United States were to make a major breakthrough in the field of new energy technology research combined with its still powerful advantage of financial services and its rich experience in the industrialization of new technologies, the United States would undoubtedly turn to build a new economic high wall against China. This is all when China is not only finding it difficult to economically compete with the United States as equals. This also will create a situation of loss for the original owners of traditional economic advantages.

In the future, while China is increasing investment in human capital, it should lead the overall industrial structure’s upgrade of prospective technical inputs and high-quality technological innovation. At this stage, some possess relative competitive advantages in enterprises that should be on the foundation of undertaking international technology transfer. This will improve the status and quality of Chinese enterprises in the global value chain. China should focus on the end of the financial crisis. Opportunities and challenges in the global industry may reshuffle. Efforts to enhance the financial markets, research and development designs, systemic integration and other professional services’ capabilities, the strengthening of financial services, technology supply, operational management functions and, in particular, the ability to manage the global supply chain are all key technology investments that will increase strategic emerging industries.

Innovative environment, financial services and its supporting policies, as well as new technology industrialization (and other aspects) will maked up for missed lessons as quickly as possible. We should reduce barriers to market access as soon as possible and promote market-oriented reforms of factor prices. In addition, we should stimulate the market’s main business endowments and enthusiasm in technological innovation. This is all with a view to achieve breakthroughs in core technology bottlenecks in key industries. This pertains to China's future status with regard to international divisions of labor. The formation of industrialization should also be considered. Ultimately, this is all to create a group that can support the long-term competitive advantage of China's economic cross-industry.


章玉贵:美国意图重新切割全球财富版图
2012-08-28 08:06中国新闻周刊网1字号:

三年前,当奥巴马在二十国集团(G20)匹兹堡峰会前提出全球经济再平衡的口号时,不少中国人认为这是美国转移国际社会关于金融体系改革视线的一种战术安排。然而,近年来的情况表明美国这次是来真的。美国一方面继续借助中国之力稳定经济基本面,另一方面通过发动新产业革命,力图重新占据世界经济的制高点,而美国财经领袖也决定改变多年来的经济发展偏好。

美国深知,过去那种过度追求金融产业发展,并依靠美元本位和全球化红利的模式不利于美国经济的持续繁荣与稳定,尤其是随着中国实体经济竞争力增强后,放弃“金融巫术”偏好,重视实体产业和出口,才能扭转美国在国际经济竞争中的颓势。的确,金融业过度发展负面效应非常强烈,以制造业为代表的实体产业的发展,则可以在较长产业链上实现财富的合理分配,尤其有利于提高就业率。

美国布局经济转型的显着标志之一,便是深耕产业革命与技术进步。从历史经验看,经济最困难时期往往也是技术与产业革命酝酿的关键时期,危机之后的经济复苏,除了宏观经济政策刺激之外,新技术和新产业常常出现。而今,以大数据、智能制造和无线网络革命为代表的第三次技术变革正在美国酝酿并初见端倪。假如上述三大技术为代表的新技术革命能够掀起新一轮产业革命,加上以苹果为代表的平台经济加速延伸市场边界,美国有可能在未来十年里打造出经济增长新引擎的超产业体系。

在传统制造业领域被中国超越之后,美国誓言要在高端制造业保持领先优势,高端制造是美国“再工业化”战略的核心目标。美国已经正式启动高端制造计划,意图在纳米技术、高端电池、新能源、生物制造、新一代微电子研发、高端机器人等领域加大科技投入,推动美国高端人才、高端要素和高端创新集群发展,并保持在高端制造领域的研发领先、技术领先和制造领先。而领先的研发基础、金融服务优势以及丰富的新技术产业化经验,有可能使得美国再次占据全球新一轮产业分工制高点。

随着中国成本优势的削弱,越来越多的美国企业正在考虑将原先位于海外的生产基地搬回美国本土,“美国制造”的成本优势正在显现。英国《金融时报》称,自2010年初至今,美国制造业就业人数增长了2.9%,德国和加拿大分别增长了2.4%和1.9%。2002年~2010年间,以美元计的美国制造业单位劳动力成本下跌11%,而以美元计的日本和德国制造业单位劳动成本分别上涨3%和41%。在新近发布的一项研究报告中,波士顿咨询集团认为,未来五年,最有可能回流美国的制造业行业包括运输工具、电子设备和器械、家具、塑料和橡胶制品、机械、金属制品和电脑行业。这些类别的商品占美国从中国进口商品的近70%,美国消费者对这些商品年均消费额为2万亿美元。

中国制造业在过去十年间取得了惊人的生产能力。2010年,中国制造业产值首度超越美国,位居“世界第一”,在全球制造业产值中的比重为19.8%,领先美国0.4个百分点。中国也被视为全球制造业高、中、低三个产业链均比较完整的少数国家之一。

美国近来的一系列经济动作正是基于锻造美国经济竞争力战略考虑,如果美国在重整实体产业竞争优势的同时,成功地通过美元的贬值、人民币的升值实现出口的快速增长,则不仅有可能打破“美国消费-中国生产”的分工格局,而且将极大地挤压中国在全球价值链环节的核心利益。另一方面,假如美国在新能源技术研究领域取得重大突破,结合其依然强大的金融服务优势以及丰富的新技术产业化经验,美国无疑又将针对中国筑起新的经济高墙;届时中国不仅难以与美国展开平等经济竞争,而且将失去原先拥有的传统经济优势。

  未来一段时期,中国在加大对人力资本投资的同时,应以前瞻性的技术投入和高质量的技术改造引领产业结构整体升级。现阶段,某些具有相对竞争优势的企业理应在承接国际技术转移的基础上,通过自主创新,提高中国企业在全球价值链中的地位与获益程度。另一方面,中国应着眼于本次金融危机结束后全球产业可能重新洗牌的机遇与挑战,着力提升金融市场、研发设计、系统集成等专业服务能力,强化金融服务、技术供给和运营管理功能,特别是管理全球供应链的能力,加大对战略新兴产业领域的关键技术投资;必须在创新环境、金融服务、政策配套以及新技术产业化等方面尽快补课,尽快降低市场准入门槛,推动要素价格市场化改革,激发市场主体的营商禀赋与技术创新积极性,以期在关乎中国未来国际分工地位的关键产业领域突破核心技术瓶颈,形成产业化,最终打造一批能够支撑中国经济长期竞争优势的跨产业集群。(章玉贵)
责任编辑:王京涛
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