Highlighting the US GDP

Published in El Espectador
(Colombia) on 3 February 2013
by Andrés Duarte (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Norma L. Colyer. Edited by Rachel Smith.
The fourth-quarter growth for the U.S. economy was -0.1 percent. This is the preliminary figure. The final data will surely change up, as happened with the data for the third quarter.

According to current data, the 2012 GDP would be 1.2 percent, indicating weak growth. Calm reigns due to increased business sales and the conviction that the economy will recover. This is important because recovery would provide a road map for the rest of the world, especially for economies that are currently experiencing problems.

The quarter’s poor performance can be attributed to a slowdown in inventory investment, and especially to lower government spending. State purchases fell 6.6 percent, annualized. Why stop to focus on this now when the country’s stock market indexes have finally reached their highest level since 2007 and the markets, especially including emergent ones, are behaving favorably?

The reason is that while on the subject of the U.S. “fiscal cliff,” an agreement was reached regarding the tax component, but the issue of the debt ceiling and cutting the budget still needs to be resolved. If the weak fourth quarter GDP can be explained by cuts in government spending, we need to be alert to what ultimately happens with the budget, as the current requirement is to take a giant cut from defense and federal spending, and we now know that this could reduce U.S. growth significantly.


Con el dato actual, el PIB 2012 sería de 1,5%, un crecimiento pobre. Hay tranquilidad debido al incremento que hubo en el rubro de ventas finales y se tiene la convicción de que esta economía va a recuperarse. Esto es importante dado que su recuperación jalonaría al resto del mundo, especialmente a las economías que actualmente tienen problemas.
El mal desempeño del trimestre se explica por una desaceleración en la inversión en inventarios y especialmente en una baja en el gasto del gobierno. Las compras estatales bajaron 6,6% (anualizado). ¿Por qué detenerse a mirar esto hoy cuando los índices bursátiles de dicho país finalmente llegan a su nivel máximo desde 2007 y los mercados, incluyendo especialmente a los emergentes, se comportan de manera favorable?
La razón es que si bien en el tema del “Fiscal Cliff” estadounidense se llegó a un acuerdo sobre el componente tributario, aún falta por arreglar el tema del techo de la deuda y el de recorte al presupuesto.
Si el deficiente PIB del cuarto trimestre se puede explicar por la baja que se dio en el gasto gubernamental, debemos estar muy atentos a lo que ocurra finalmente con el presupuesto, pues el requerimiento actual es que se dé un recorte gigante en el gasto de defensa, así como en el gasto federal, y ahora vemos que esto efectivamente puede reducir el crecimiento estadounidense notablemente.
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