With New Secretary of State, Curse of Sino-US Mistrust May Be Lifted

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 23 January 2013
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dagny Dukach. Edited by Hana Livingston.
Barack Obama, now serving his second term as president of the United States, has nominated former presidential candidate John Kerry as the new secretary of state. It is hardly surprising that Kerry is at last becoming America’s secretary of state. He has no competitors for the position and is an experienced senator, having been on the foreign relations committee of the U.S. Senate for quite some time.

Will Sino-U.S. relations in the next four years be much of an improvement over the last four years? The answer to this question will determine the strategic atmosphere for the entire Asia Pacific region, and it will have considerable influence on expectations regarding the nature of international relations in the 21st century.

To be fair, during the last four years under Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, no great conflicts have taken place between the U.S. and China. Nevertheless, suspicions have worsened between these two great powers across the Pacific. Both covert and semi-public rivalry between the two countries has increased. To keep relations from worsening, each nation’s tactics must become progressively more earnest. Objectively speaking, Hillary’s Sino-U.S. strategies have only encouraged the continuous brewing of mutual suspicion.

The U.S. and China have gradually come to a crossroads. The two countries must comprehensively and irreversibly expand their spheres of contact with one another, thus naturally shaping the nature of their future relations. Or, the mutual mistrust will be ignored, causing us to move toward increasing hostilities and forcing the direction of bilateral relations through these sorts of subjective methods.

America is a world hegemon and China, too, has grown into a strategic global role. A mutual understanding between two such countries cannot be created overnight; it must grow one layer at a time. The next four years will play a large part in determining whether future relations between the U.S. and China become more peaceful or more strained.

Over the next four years, the disparity in power between the U.S. and China may shrink further. Nearly all past experience in international politics demonstrates that there are real grounds for the exacerbation of tensions in Sino-U.S. relations. China’s strength is fast reaching that of the U.S. A select few people might soon cast a political curse over these two great nations, and that is for certain. In this day and age, both spontaneity and empiricism are dangerous.

Hillary was a strong secretary of state and has left her personal mark on America’s diplomatic relations toward China. Her conviction in the superiority of her value system and her aggression in international relations engendered many misunderstandings between the U.S. and China. Her approach was not mutually suitable for both countries.

Kerry participated in the Vietnam War, his personal experience is more complex, and his way of thinking is formed from a more diverse background. Most experts believe he might be a more “peaceful” secretary of state. I can only hope this will be true.

Ultimately, the U.S. and China’s attitudes toward one another will hinge upon the two nations’ strategic interests. The actions of individuals will not really make that much of a difference, although at this particular time the ideologies and styles of our leaders have special significance. In reality, Sino-U.S. relations have a strong and secure foundation. The source of tensions is, for the most part, a question of geopolitical issues — an ideological matter.

Ever since America became the top world power, especially since the end of World War II, it has always been more than capable of overcoming all geopolitical challenges. America is utterly unfamiliar with China’s situation. It needs to develop new ideologies in order to understand China. Its ways of thinking cannot remain the same as they were in past eras.

Strategic Sino-U.S. interaction could yield improvements for all of human civilization. Success would signify the end of a long history of great powers being unable to rise to power peacefully. It would change the tragic state of politics between the global powers and would put an end to war forevermore. Failure would be a great setback for humanity, as it would have us continue to fumble around painfully in this labyrinth of international politics.

The American president’s second term in office comes as a relief to the general public, as it may reveal the president’s true colors. Obama’s life story and experience give the outside world reason to have relatively high expectations. The world is changing; diversification on a global scale is growing endlessly on every level. Whether or not America’s national interests will be able to accept more openness will depend on Obama’s next four years.


社评:换国务卿,中美互疑魔咒莫越念越紧
2013-01-23 07:17环球时报1586字号:TT

  连任美国总统的奥巴马提名前总统候选人约翰·克里出任新国务卿,由于克里没有竞争者,他又是老牌参议员,长期在参议院外交关系委员会任职,他最终成为美国国务卿几无悬念。
  接下来的四年,中美关系能比前四年好些吗?这个答案的真实展开将决定整个亚太地区的战略氛围,并实质性影响人们对21世纪国际关系性质的预期。
  其实希拉里当国务卿的这四年,中美也没发生什么严重冲突,但两大国隔太平洋互视的疑心加重了。两国的暗中或半公开较劲在多起来,为防备关系恶化而各自做的筹划逐渐变得认真。希拉里客观成了中美战略互疑不断发酵的推手。
  中美两国逐渐来到十字路口:或者全面扩大两国的接触,使其不可逆转,由这些接触自然打造两国未来关系的性质;或者放任两国的战略互疑,使其朝着敌视发展,由这样的主观性强制两国关系的方向。
  美国是全球霸主,中国也在成长为全球性战略角色,这样两个国家的相互态度无法一日生成,一定是一层一层夯实的。未来中美关系将有多和平或者多紧张,今后四年将铺垫很厚重的一部分。
  未来四年中美实力差距会进一步缩小,国际政治的几乎全部旧有经验都会视之为中美加剧紧张的现实理由。中国实力与美国越接近,大国政治的魔咒就会被一些人念得越紧,并且深信不疑。冲动和经验主义在这个时代都是危险的。
  希拉里作为一名强势的国务卿,给美国对华外交打上她个人的一些烙印。她的价值观优越感,她的咄咄逼人都被带到国家关系中,制造了中美的更多误读和相互不适应。
  克里参加过越战,个人经历更复杂些,思想材料的来源途径也更多些。分析人士大多认为他会是相对更“平和”的国务卿,希望他的确会是这样。
  中美的彼此态度最终取决于两国的战略利益,个人作用并非大得没边,但领导者的思想方式在这个特殊时期有着特殊的意义。中美关系现实基础非常强大牢固,两国的紧张源头大多来自于地缘政治的解读方式,是一些思想性的东西。
  美国自成为世界头号强国以来,尤其是二战后,它应对所有地缘政治挑战的能力一直绰绰有余。中国的情况是美国极不熟悉的。美国需要新的思想建树来读懂中国,美国的思考方式不能停留在过去的时代。
  中美的战略互动有可能导致全人类文明的一次升级,它的成功将意味着人类结束大国无法和平崛起的历史,终止大国政治的悲剧,从此消灭大的战争。而它的失败也将意味着全人类的重大挫折,我们将继续在大国政治的迷宫中痛苦摸索。
  美国总统的第二任期被普遍认为可以放下包袱,表现总统的思想本色。奥巴马的身世和经历,使外界对他有较多期待。世界在变化,多元化在全球范围内以及在各个层面上生生不息。美国的国家利益能否获得更大的开放性,就看奥巴马接下来的这四年了。

http://opinion.huanqiu.com/editorial/2013-01/3572256.html
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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