Boston Terror Attack Creates Difficult Problem for Obama

Published in Nanyang
(Malaysia) on 18 April 2013
by Zhang Jingwei (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Daniel Chow. Edited by Mary Young.
On the afternoon of April 15 in the U.S., multiple bombings occurred at the Boston Marathon’s finish line, causing three deaths and more than 100 injuries. After the tragedy happened, images of the sadness and confusion on-site quickly spread to all corners of the world through the Internet. The U.S. has already classified this as a terror attack. President Obama has given an emergency speech, and major cities such as New York and Washington have entered a state of emergency.

The incident is still under investigation, but its impact on American society is obvious. Whether the terror attack was carried out by a foreign terrorist organization or was a case of tragic cannibalism by Americans themselves, the incident has created a difficult problem for the Obama administration.

A Hole in the U.S.’ Local Counterterrorism Network

If the attacks were perpetrated by foreign terrorists such as al-Qaida, it would mean that there is a huge hole in the local counterterrorism network set up by President Bush Jr. and that the Americans' efforts have been wasted. There were no voices of dissent in the U.S. against President Obama’s “burden reduction” strategy of pulling out of Iraq and Afghanistan. This attack has provided the opposition with an excuse to attack Obama.

Before this, the world’s counterterrorism situation and the situation in the Middle East seemed to be developing in ways that would benefit the U.S. Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, who was shot dead during Obama’s time in office, was considered the main instigator of the 9/11 attacks. This was an achievement in counterterrorism that Obama could be proud of. In addition, the Middle East was swept by a current of democracy, with wave after wave of street demonstrations. The Gadhafi regime in Libya was overthrown while the Syrian government, hated by the U.S., has been continuously harassed by the Western-backed rebels. Because of this, the U.S. turned its back on the Middle East and focused on Asia, which had been neglected due to the war on terror.

The Conflict between the U.S. and the Muslim World Not Over Yet

Everything can be explained dialectically. The Obama administration’s neglect of counterterrorism strategy would have caused terrorist forces to rally. The attack in September of last year, during which the U.S. ambassador to Libya and three diplomats were killed, can be interpreted as a sudden, sharp warning to the U.S.: See the error of your ways. Although the secretary of state at the time, Hillary Clinton, said that she was heartbroken by this incident, the hard truth shows that even after the revolution in Libya and the restructuring of Iraq by the U.S., Americans are still not safe in these areas. Broadly speaking, the confrontation between the two great civilizations is still present, and the real conflict between the U.S. and the Muslim world has not been appeased. Solving the problems left by Bush Jr.’s war on terror is not something that Obama can do in two terms.

If it is eventually proven that the Boston terror attack was carried out by Islamic extremists, it shows that the counterterrorism situation in the U.S. has devolved to a pre-9/11 state. The U.S. will face a security crisis on both domestic and foreign fronts, and the phenomenon of general anxiety and social panic similar to that after 9/11 will arise in the U.S. again. Obama will be facing heavy domestic pressure. At this time, no one will mention Obama’s success at eliminating the threat of bin Laden; people will only focus on Obama’s policy mistake of giving up on the war on terror. They may even yearn for the “good times” of the Bush Jr. administration.

U.S. Security May Be Criticized by the Public in Both Speech and Writing

Of course, it cannot be ruled out that the terror attack may have been carried out by U.S. citizens. This may ease the American public's tension, but it will still cause strong dissatisfaction among the people whose country is already associated with numerous shooting sprees. They will then criticize the security situation during Obama’s time in office in both speech and writing. Obama will not be able to contain them and will remain in a difficult position.

The Boston terror attack will affect Americans’ view of security. Obama will be forced to reflect on his mistakes with regard to counterterrorism. Under the pressure of multiple domestic and economic issues, U.S. counterterrorism strategies cannot be as aggressive and enthusiastic as those of the Bush Jr. administration. The U.S. can only take a defensive approach, pulling back part of its strategic power and using it to guard against attacks on American soil.

As such, the U.S.’ leadership power in Asia will be decreased, creating a chain reaction that will affect China-U.S. relations and the entire area’s geopolitical situation.


美国时间15日下午,波士顿马拉松比赛终点位置发生连环爆炸,导致3人死亡,百余人受伤。不幸发生后,现场悲戚混乱的图片伴随着互联网络迅速传到世界各个角落。美国已经将此事件界定为恐怖袭击,奥巴马总统发表紧急讲话,纽约、华盛顿等重点城市也随即进入紧急状态。

事件还在调查中,对美国社会的冲击可想而知。不管恐袭来自外部恐怖组织或是美国人的自残悲剧,都给奥巴马政府出了相当大的难题。

美国本土反恐网络出现漏洞

若是外部恐怖分子所为,比如来自基地组织,意味着9.11事件后小布什总统搭建的美国本土反恐网络出现了大漏洞,也说明美国的反恐战争打了水漂。奥巴马总统从伊拉克和阿富汗撤军的战略“减负”,美国国内并非没有反对声音,此番恐袭为反对派攻击奥巴马提供了口实。

在此之前,世界反恐局势和中东形势,似乎朝着有利于美国的方向发展。奥巴马时代击毙了基地组织的头目奥萨马,他被认为是发动9‧11事件的元凶,这是奥巴马引以为傲的反恐胜果。此外,中东迎来一波波街头运动的民主潮流———利比亚的卡达菲政权也被推翻;美国讨厌的叙利亚政府,也被西方支持的“造反派”搅得不得安宁。也正因为如此,美国从中东掉头,转向因为反恐战争而被忽略的亚洲地区。

美国和回教世界矛盾未缓解

凡事都是辩证的。奥巴马政府轻忽反恐战略,必然导致恐怖势力的反弹。去年9月,美国驻利比亚大使和三名外交官遇袭身亡,算是给美国以猛然棒喝。虽然当时的希拉丽国务卿对此事“心都碎了”,但无情的事实说明,即使是在革命后的利比亚以及美国重整后的伊拉克,美国人在这些地方也不安全。大而言之,两大文明的冲突根源犹在,而且美国和回教世界的现实矛盾也未缓解。消化小布什反恐战争的负遗产,不是奥巴马两个任期就能完成的。

如果最终证明波士顿恐袭确为极端回教分子所为,凸显美国的反恐局势已经退化到911事件之前。美国将面临着海外国内两头难安的安全危势,美国社会将重现类似911事件后的全民焦虑和社会恐慌现象,奥巴马将面临着国内多重压力。此时,不会再有人重提奥巴马击毙本.拉登的成果,人们只会紧盯奥巴马放弃反恐战争的政策失误,甚至会怀念小布什时代的“好”来。

美国治安或令民众口诛笔伐

当然,也不排除恐袭是美国公民所为。这或许会缓解美国民众的压力,但联想到之前发生的多起枪击事件,也同样会形成强烈的民意不满,对奥巴马时代的治安混乱予以口诛笔伐,奥巴马同样会招架不住,陷入难堪。

波士顿恐袭事件,将影响美国人的安全观。奥巴马不得不检讨在反恐方面的失误。在经济民生的多重压力下,美国的反恐战略不可能再像小布什时代那样积极进取,而只能采取防御之策,将一部分战略力量回收,用于防范恐怖分子对美国本土的突袭上。

如此,美国在亚洲的领导力恐会有所降低,这对中美关系以及整个区域的地缘政治形势,也会产生连锁反应。
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