Myanmar President's US Visit and Obama's 'Western Front Strategy'

Published in Sina
(China) on 21 May 2013
by Li Mingpo (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Christine Chou. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
On May 17, Myanmar President Thein Sein began his historic visit to the U.S. This reformist leader, on whom the West has placed high hopes, is the first from Myanmar to visit the U.S. in 47 years. Thein Sein’s trip is not only a courteous return visit following Obama’s trip to Myanmar last year, but also indicates a major adjustment in Myanmar’s foreign policy.

If you look from a higher strategic level, I believe Myanmar is Obama’s greatest gain since he launched his “pivot to Asia” strategy almost two years ago. Obama’s strategy consists of three fronts: the Korean Peninsula on the eastern front, the South China Sea and East China Sea on the central front, and Myanmar on the western front. When examining the actual results, the U.S. has achieved gains along all three fronts, but in the short term, no major breakthroughs have occurred on the eastern and central fronts. In comparison, the Obama administration has realized a historic achievement only with Myanmar on the western front.

The Obama administration’s contest over Myanmar highlights the country’s important international geopolitical position. In an atmosphere where China has abruptly risen as the world’s second largest economy, Obama proposed a “pivot to Asia” strategy. If you apply the “clash of civilizations” paradigm, the U.S. has changed the direction of its international strategy since the Obama administration took office. In fact, the most economically competitive civilization, China, has become the U.S.’ main contender for supremacy.

The Obama administration’s strategic decision recognizes that the real threat to the U.S.’ international hegemonic position lies in economic strength. Of course, Obama’s reluctance to interfere includes personal factors: From his family background and educational environment while growing up, Obama is a veritable “product of the Pacific Rim” and is the White House leader who most lacks a “European complex” in U.S. history. It is also because of this strategic decision that Obama still refuses to intervene in Syria with military force after more than two years of continued crisis.

But just as I said earlier, Obama’s change in direction is actually an important strategic decision, especially as this historic shift occurred during a major adjustment in the Middle East’s strategic situation. Clearly, Obama’s decision was not affected by the turbulent circumstances in the Middle East. Thein Sein’s visit to the U.S. precisely reflects how Obama continues to adhere to this change in stance in his second term.

Regarding the U.S., can Obama’s strategic decision withstand the test of history? Republicans are currently seizing on the mistakes in Obama’s Middle East policy, especially the Benghazi embassy attack and the retreat from the “red line” on Syria’s chemical weapons, criticizing Obama as weak. In this writer’s opinion, in Obama’s choice between the Middle East and Asia, he made a challenging strategic decision between an immediate contradiction [in policy] and a long-term contradiction. As for whether it was right or wrong, perhaps only history can make an objective judgment.


  本月17日起,缅甸总统吴登盛开始了他对美国的历史性访问。这位被西方寄予厚望的改革派领导人,成为47年来首次访问美国的缅甸领导人。吴登盛访美,不仅是对奥巴马去年底访缅的礼节性回访,更是缅甸外交政策进行重大调整的标志事件。

  如果从更高战略层面看,笔者认为,缅甸成为奥巴马重返亚太战略推行近两年来的最大收获者。奥巴马的重返亚太战略,不外乎三条战线:东线的朝鲜半岛、中线的南海与东海、西线的缅甸。从实际效果看,美国在三条战线虽然都有所收获,但东线和中线短期内均无大突破,相比之下只有西线的缅甸,奥巴马政府获得了历史性成果。

  奥巴马政府对缅甸的争夺,也彰显了缅甸在国际地缘政治中的重要位置。在中国全面崛起成为全球第二大经济体的国际大气候下,奥巴马历史性提出了“重返亚太”战略。如果套用“文明冲突论”的范式,奥巴马政府上台以来美国的国际战略“转向”,其实是把主要争雄对象,转向最有经济竞争实力的华夏文明。

  奥巴马政府的战略选择,是因为他们看到了对美国国际霸主地位的真正威胁是经济实力。当然,奥巴马的“不顾干扰”中也包含其个人的情感因素:从家庭出身和生长教育环境,奥巴马是名副其实的“环太平洋出品”,也是有史以来最缺乏“欧洲情结”的白宫主人。也正是因为这样的战略决断,奥巴马在叙利亚危机持续两年多之后,依然拒绝武力介入。

  但正如笔者此前所言,奥巴马“转向”其实是一种重大的战略决断。特别是当这种历史性转变恰恰遇到中东地区战略格局大调整。很显然,奥巴马的战略决断并没有受到中东变局的干扰。吴登盛的访美,恰恰反映了奥巴马在第二任期内继续坚持他的“转向”。

  对美国而言,奥巴马的战略决断能否经得住历史考验?共和党人现在抓住了奥巴马中东政策的失误,特别是班加西使馆遇袭和叙利亚化武“红线”上的退缩,狠批奥巴马“软弱”。依笔者之见,奥巴马在中东和亚太之间的战略选择,其实是在“眼前矛盾”与“长远矛盾”之间做出了一个艰难的战略决断。究竟是对是错,恐怕只能由历史做出客观评判。
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