Sanctions Dispel Illusion of Improved US-Iran Relations

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 2 August 2013
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Mary Young.
The inauguration of Iranian moderate President Hassan Rouhani is imminent, bringing with it a sliver of hope for improved relations between the U.S. and Iran; however, the passing of a bill for fresh sanctions against Iran by the U.S. Congress has abruptly dispelled that illusion.

The bill is intended to further curb Iranian oil exports, targeting a reduction of 1 million barrels per day. Since the tightening of sanctions by the West, particularly the oil embargo by the EU, Iranian oil exports have shrunk dramatically, from 2.2 million barrels per day to approximately half that figure, at the same time falling from second to sixth place among OPEC nations. If the new sanctions are implemented, Iranian oil exports will become virtually nonexistent, being under the equivalent of a wholesale oil embargo. Iran will not only lack even the slightest foreign exchange revenue and the funds to develop nuclear weapons as per the design of the U.S. Congress, but it will also face the likely collapse of its currently fragile economy.

The bill in the House must still undergo a vote in the Senate and will only be officially put into force after being signed into law by President Obama; as such, it is still far from implementation. But this sends a hostile signal and seems particularly jarring given that Rouhani and Obama have been exchanging amicable phrases from across the globe. Several members of the House of Representatives have said that Rouhani should be given a chance.

Hardliners Capitalize, New Administration Woes

In the final tally, the bill passed with 400 votes in favor to 20 against, evincing the prevailing opinion in the House that a hard stance must be taken against Iran. This policy of unrelentingly harrying Iran is the exact opposite of the course favored by the White House, which is to extend the hand of friendship. The weeks and months ahead will not be easy for Obama, and even less so for Rouhani. After the newest Iranian president's election and proposal to open dialogue with the U.S., Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned that the U.S. lacked even the slightest credibility and must be guarded against carefully. These actions by the U.S. House of Representatives only serve to prove Khamenei's wisdom. Hardliners will display a greater amount of self-righteousness in their insistence on opposing the West; Rouhani will find any action to the contrary more difficult.

In fact, one could say that the U.S. only harms others with no tangible benefit to itself by closing off Iranian oil exports, as the dearth of said oil will trigger an unavoidable rise in prices and, as the world's largest economy, the U.S. will be the first to suffer. Meanwhile, its allies Japan and South Korea, both fairly dependent on Iranian oil, will have their share of difficulties as well. Somewhat earlier, over 130 members of Congress signed an appeal to Obama to seize this opportunity to explore every diplomatic means available for improving relations with Iran. Where are they now?


伊朗温和派总统鲁哈尼上台在即,为伊美改善关系带来一线希望,不过美国国会众议院通过新制裁伊朗议案,一下子把幻想戳破。

  这项议案,旨在进一步阻止伊朗石油出口,把其每日输出量再削减一百万桶。自西方收紧制裁特别是欧盟实施石油禁运后,伊朗石油出口大幅缩减,由原本每日二百二十万桶,降至一半左右,在石油输出国组织排名榜上,亦由第二跌到第六位。如果新制裁推行,则伊朗石油出口几乎变成零,等于受到全面石油禁运,伊朗不但像美国众议院设计般毫无外汇收入,缺乏经费去研发核武,目前疲弱经济更难免崩溃。

  美国众议院这项议案,尚要经过参议院表决通过,再由总统奥巴马签署后,才会正式落实,可说十画只得两撇,然而,这却是一个敌意讯息,在鲁哈尼和奥巴马隔空言来语往,互摆友善姿态之际,尤其显得突兀,一些众议员就说,应该给鲁哈尼一个机会。

  强硬派借势新政府艰难

  议案最终在四百票支持、二十票反对下通过,显示强硬对付伊朗在众议院属于主流,这种棍棒交加取态,跟主张伸出友谊之手的白宫,恰恰相反。奥巴马未来难做,鲁哈尼更加不易。在鲁哈尼当选提议与美国对话后,伊朗最高精神领袖哈梅内伊便警告,美国毫无诚信可言,必须小心提防,美国众议院今次做法,正好证明哈梅内伊的英明,强硬派与西方对抗到底,愈显理直气壮,鲁哈尼难免举步维艰。

  其实,禁绝伊朗石油出口,美国可谓损人不利己,国际市场少了伊朗出口,油价无可避免飙升,全球最大经济体的美国,首当其冲,同时,对伊朗石油相当依赖的美国盟友日本和韩国,日子也不会好过。美国国会一百三十多名议员,较早前曾联署要求奥巴马抓住机会,尽一切外交方法改善美伊关系,这个当儿他们不知跑到哪里去了?
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