Giving Snowden Asylum, Russia Increases Its International Prestige and Geopolitical Status
Sheremetyevo prisoner Edward Snowden has finally crossed the state border. At the same time, the border was crossed in the Russian-American dialogue that deals with the extradition of the former CIA fellow back to his motherland. We let ourselves be more honest not in words but in actions, and showed our American partners what we think about their "unilateralism." The notorious worriers were present on the spot: "Oh my god this is war!" Indeed, the step Russia took to give Snowden asylum against the U.S. can be regarded as a defiant move or insanity, but in any case it is a precedent.
Leonid Ivashov, KM.ru military expert and the president of the Academy of Geopolitical Issues talks about the consequences of such a move:
Generally Speaking, the Americans Can't Do Anything to Russia
In this situation, Russia doesn't risk anything. Maybe someone from Putin's entourage takes some risks — those who have their personal interests and bank accounts. More likely, the Americans will strike them, but we are not threatened in any way. At the same time, Russia significantly increased its international prestige and geopolitical status. This year, Russia demonstrated some degree of its sovereignty, mainly from the United States. First, on the Syrian issue, then at the G-8 summit, and now with Snowden. The fact that we didn't shiver under the pressure of Washington is a big gain. We gained because now Russia has some friends that are confident that they will be protected; ever since Gorbachev, all of them were betrayed.
Russia has also improved the level of its relations with the U.S. Generally, there is nothing that the Americans can do to Russia. All the hints that Barack Obama might not come to Moscow in September are not Russia's but Obama's problem. If he does not come the losses would be only his. He indeed found himself in a complicated position: If he does not come then how can the world's issues be solved without American presence? If he does come it would mean that the Americans accept the defeat. Although maybe in the future they will be more cooperative when it comes to giving runaway criminals and defrauders asylum, since right now they do not extradite anyone.
It needs to be kept in mind that any American president, whether he is a Democrat or a Republican, sticks to one foreign policy. The only difference is that some smile broadly, and others keep a gloomy face. In relation to Russia, it is only the rhetoric that changes, but the policy stays the same. Therefore, there is no need to react to their threats. We need to keep our political course worthy and keep in mind that Americans have never been our friends or even reliable partners. It's only when we have mutual interests, whether it's World War II or problems of nuclear disarmament, that they are willing to meet halfway, although they never renounce their interests. That is why their rhetoric is not worth worrying about.
Snowden Will Reveal Everything He Hasn't Told Yet
Apparently, there is a big chance that Snowden will stay in Russia forever. I suppose his family will move here as well: All of his relatives are now under tremendous pressure from the secret services, administrative authorities and public opinion. As for Snowden's relation with our secret services — if I was him, I would have hated them unless they worked with me, and they actually did, for so many days in the transit zone of Sheremetyevo. And I'm sure they will keep working. There is no doubt about it: These are the laws of shadow policies. They are the same in every country in the world. Obviously, there will be an effort to extract everything he knows. All means are justified when it comes to state security.
Maybe someone will refer to Putin's ban on Snowden harming the U.S. Putin himself has his interests, which include personal ones. The demand not to harm the U.S. was spoken publicly. Of course, Russian authorities will do their best to keep Snowden from posting new information online. However, one way or another, it will eventually become the legacy of our relevant authorities. All that hasn't been told yet will be revealed. And that's the best card we have up our sleeve.
Leonid Ivashov, KM.ru military expert and the president of the Academy of Geopolitical Issues talks about the consequences of such a move:
Generally Speaking, the Americans Can't Do Anything to Russia
In this situation, Russia doesn't risk anything. Maybe someone from Putin's entourage takes some risks — those who have their personal interests and bank accounts. More likely, the Americans will strike them, but we are not threatened in any way. At the same time, Russia significantly increased its international prestige and geopolitical status. This year, Russia demonstrated some degree of its sovereignty, mainly from the United States. First, on the Syrian issue, then at the G-8 summit, and now with Snowden. The fact that we didn't shiver under the pressure of Washington is a big gain. We gained because now Russia has some friends that are confident that they will be protected; ever since Gorbachev, all of them were betrayed.
Russia has also improved the level of its relations with the U.S. Generally, there is nothing that the Americans can do to Russia. All the hints that Barack Obama might not come to Moscow in September are not Russia's but Obama's problem. If he does not come the losses would be only his. He indeed found himself in a complicated position: If he does not come then how can the world's issues be solved without American presence? If he does come it would mean that the Americans accept the defeat. Although maybe in the future they will be more cooperative when it comes to giving runaway criminals and defrauders asylum, since right now they do not extradite anyone.
It needs to be kept in mind that any American president, whether he is a Democrat or a Republican, sticks to one foreign policy. The only difference is that some smile broadly, and others keep a gloomy face. In relation to Russia, it is only the rhetoric that changes, but the policy stays the same. Therefore, there is no need to react to their threats. We need to keep our political course worthy and keep in mind that Americans have never been our friends or even reliable partners. It's only when we have mutual interests, whether it's World War II or problems of nuclear disarmament, that they are willing to meet halfway, although they never renounce their interests. That is why their rhetoric is not worth worrying about.
Snowden Will Reveal Everything He Hasn't Told Yet
Apparently, there is a big chance that Snowden will stay in Russia forever. I suppose his family will move here as well: All of his relatives are now under tremendous pressure from the secret services, administrative authorities and public opinion. As for Snowden's relation with our secret services — if I was him, I would have hated them unless they worked with me, and they actually did, for so many days in the transit zone of Sheremetyevo. And I'm sure they will keep working. There is no doubt about it: These are the laws of shadow policies. They are the same in every country in the world. Obviously, there will be an effort to extract everything he knows. All means are justified when it comes to state security.
Maybe someone will refer to Putin's ban on Snowden harming the U.S. Putin himself has his interests, which include personal ones. The demand not to harm the U.S. was spoken publicly. Of course, Russian authorities will do their best to keep Snowden from posting new information online. However, one way or another, it will eventually become the legacy of our relevant authorities. All that hasn't been told yet will be revealed. And that's the best card we have up our sleeve.