2014, When the US Deals with Karzai

With the coming of 2014, the U.S. pulling out of Afghanistan is becoming the focus of attention. The U.S. is concerned about its own agenda and the complicated relationship with the current Afghan government, creating great suspense as to what “post-U.S.” Afghanistan will be. It's difficult for the U.S. to find a strategy that satisfies both governments, and Afghanistan faces a severe challenge with postwar security.

Hamid Karzai Is Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place

For Afghanistan, 2014 not only means Americans are about to “depart” — it also means Hamid Karzai leaving presidential office and Afghanistan's political situation entering a new era. There has been much speculation about whether Karzai will covertly enter the 2014 presidential election, but since he's an “old hand” in the presidential office having already served two terms, he has already publicly expressed that he will not continue on in the elections.

Karzai's position in the presidency was quite awkward, stuck between the anti-American attitude of the Afghan people and U.S. military aid and supplies. It is hard to come up with genuine words to appease both sides. Having served two full terms in office, he cannot participate in the 2014 election, but Karzai clearly does not want to leave office with the impression of being a “traitor.” He has to have a balance between the U.S., the Taliban and the Afghan public. When going over the “security treaty” proposed by the U.S., Karzai nitpicked on a fair number of details, even stating: “To be on a level to ensure public security, NATO troops are a deep source of suffering for Afghanistan, the cause of many casualties,” to the discontentment of the U.S.

Karzai's “subtle movements” are not made independently. Although the U.S. has always pledged to be “Afghanistan's savior,” many members of the Afghan public have lost confidence in U.S. military occupation, because even after all this time, U.S. military action has only brought misery. Although the U.S. military possesses “precision attack” advanced weaponry, consequences for civilians while they carry out attacks against the Taliban isn't news. In these 12 years, the U.S. has always been about anti-terror, but what Afghan citizens really don't understand is that America has always been about anti-terror and attacking the Taliban. However, the public security situation obviously has not improved, with roadside explosions and suicide bombers threatening the security of Afghan civilians anytime, anywhere.

Actually from a battlefield perspective, U.S. actions in Afghanistan appear quite weak. Although after 9/11 the U.S. came together after a great loss, even at that time financial aid to northern Afghanistan was already “a baseless foundation of an anti-Taliban alliance.” They successfully defeated the Taliban, but this victory was more due to the Taliban's hasty retreat into the mountains. After this, the U.S. military did not deploy enough forces to the region to deal with Taliban militants. Even though there was no shortage of soldiers sent to Afghanistan until 2009, they still were unable to effectively deal with threats from the “constantly moving” Taliban.

Karzai cannot avoid a certain fact: In its current state, Afghanistan cannot continue without U.S. economic aid and security assistance. Currently, NATO has about 84,000 troops stationed in Afghanistan, including 60,000 U.S. troops. If an agreement cannot be reached, the U.S. will be forced to withdraw all stationed troops. When that time comes, the Afghan government will have to rely on its own security forces to deal with the Taliban. The Afghan government is hard pressed for funds, the majority of payouts needing international funding aid. There is no way to tell whether or not the Afghan government will be able to “keep up with a desperate crisis” when foreign military forces pull out.

War-Hating Americans

Actually Karzai is not the only one in a difficult position; the U.S. government and military in Afghanistan also have a “mountain” of pressure. On the one hand, it is clear domestically that after withdrawing from Afghanistan, there is a strong possibility that all the reconstruction since 2002 will be undone; but on the other hand, the U.S., with current domestic economic issues and the public anti-war attitude, must choose to reluctantly “withdraw” troops.

In a recent opinion poll, the number of Americans against the war in Afghanistan reached even higher than during the Vietnam War 40 years ago. The poll showed that only 17 percent of Americans support the war in Afghanistan, those against it reaching 82 percent. This is a substantial drop compared to the 52 percent of supporters in the last survey four years ago. The poll also showed that only about 30 percent of Americans think the U.S. is winning the war in Afghanistan. In addition, an overwhelming majority hope the U.S. military can pull out of Afghanistan before the end of Obama's term in office.

Actually, Americans’ loss of confidence in the war in Afghanistan is not unusual; Afghanistan is like a bottomless pit, sucking in a huge part of U.S. resources and manpower over many years. From 2002 to today, the U.S. has already spent $100 billion in financial aid. This, of course, is only “on the surface” — many “secret” funds have been sent. For example, money to entice different Afghan political parties, “bribes” for military factions, construction and supplies used by the U.S. Army stationed in Afghanistan, etc. — these are not calculated.

For so much investment, Afghanistan does not live up to the ideal political and military structure imagined by the U.S. In 2009 during the first Afghan presidential election, U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi publicly criticized Karzai for fraud in the election, calling Karzai unworthy of U.S. support. Previously, on a sudden visit to Afghanistan, Obama criticized Karzai of corruption. In April of last year, The New York Times published an article about the CIA giving Karzai money, which really shocked the American public. The report gave a detailed description of tens of millions of dollars given by the CIA, which was “packed into suitcases, backpacks and, on occasion, plastic shopping bags,” sent to the Afghan presidential office “about once a month.”

Spending so much money and sacrificing that many lives, the Afghan government and military still seem insufferably weak, which doesn't satisfy the American public. Americans are weary of the war in Afghanistan. This failure is, as predicted, on the head of Americans. In the end, all those who have invaded Afghanistan seeking change are drained of all strength.

The U.S. has not decided to completely withdraw. It is preparing to retreat with dignity and to be able to maintain the use of military bases in Afghanistan. The U.S. still hopes for a “security agreement” with the Afghan government in which after the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the situation in Afghanistan will be able to maintain stability. However, with Karzai balancing between politics, conflicts in domestic public opinion, security issues and the anti-war attitude in the U.S. political world, the two countries must give serious consideration and gamble, their decisions playing a big part in the future path of the political world in Afghanistan.