Will Ukraine Turn into a Second Syria?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 21 February 2014
by Liu Zhilin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Xiangyi (Apple) Jia. Edited by Eva Langman.
Ukraine’s first shot of the civil war has been fired, with the most obvious sign being the fact that extremists within the U.S. and EU-supported opposition party have taken up weapons, turning violent protests into gunfire.

Under public support from Western countries, Ukraine’s anti-government protests have leaned toward violence from the beginning. Protesters used bulldozers to charge at police barricades, forcefully overtook City Hall and several other government buildings, camped out in Kiev’s Independence Square, burned tires, set up a “firewall” and responded violently to police clearances.

The U.S. and EU have always supported the anti-government forces and have even sent high-ranking officials to Kiev’s Independence Square to cheer on the protests, which consequently have intensified, leaving the protesters fearless. Yesterday, “peaceful protesters” carrying weapons chased after and shot at policemen who were under orders to retreat. Some policemen were even beaten to death despite having had provided relief to the injured, while dozens of military police were taken as captives. The U.S. and EU, however, only partially criticized the Ukrainian government’s bloody repression of “peaceful protests.”

The U.S. and Western countries are abandoning the democratic electoral system for which they have consistently advocated, and instead support violent street demonstrations and overturning the legal government with “street democracy” movements. The classic example is the U.S. and Western countries’ full support of Egypt’s mass protests and overthrowing Mohammed Morsi, the democratically-elected president, and now they are using the same trick to overthrow the Ukrainian government. People wonder, “Would Washington, London and Paris allow these kinds of ‘peaceful protests?’”

The extremists out of the U.S.-backed protesters have robbed arsenals of large quantities of weapons, including missile launchers. The Ukrainian army has been forced to intervene, proposing an anti-terrorism slogan. If the U.S. continues to support the extremists’ use of force to confront the Ukrainian army, the result will be civil war.

Both the U.S. and Russia are fighting over Ukraine, putting Ukraine in a predicament. The direct cause for Ukraine’s turmoil is President Viktor Yanukovych’s trade agreement with Moscow, leaving the EU feeling neglected. Since Ukraine currently faces economic difficulties and is in dire need of economic aid, the EU has taken advantage of this. The bailout proposal will not only consist of little money and arrive after some delay, but also comprises political conditions: the release of Yanukovych’s political opponent.

Yanukovych was strapped for money, while the EU feigned ignorance. Under these circumstances, Yanukovych’s only option was Moscow, from which he received the desperately needed $15 billion worth of funding and cheap natural gas. As a result, the U.S. and EU were infuriated and, in order to force Yanukovych into submission, disregarded the democratic and moral principles they have long preached, and openly supported the violent anti-government activities.

Once Civil War Erupts, the Brutality Shall Far Surpass That of Syria

Ukraine has an area of 233,900 square miles and a population of 45.55 million people. Ukrainian speakers are concentrated in Western Ukraine and lean toward joining the EU. On the contrary, the majority of Russian speakers are found in the East, the region closest to Russia itself.

The root of Ukraine’s problems lies in the dissolution of the Soviet Union, of which NATO took advantage to expand eastward and squash Russia’s territory of impact. This very day, the bulldozer that the U.S. and Western countries have been driving has arrived at Russia’s walls. How can the re-emerging Russia sit still?

Russia has maintained a low profile on the Ukraine issue, expressing little opinion. However, Russia holds a critical weapon, natural gas and other natural resources, which Ukraine and European countries need. The U.S. has no better counterattack than to stir up violent protests. The supposed crackdown that the U.S. and Western countries have proposed is at most what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov calls “blackmail.” If the EU decides on economic sanctions towards Ukraine, it will only push the country towards Russia. The latter has served as a traditional market for Ukrainian goods whereas EU countries do not.

If the U.S. and EU instigate and support the Ukrainian civil war, a full-scale battle will be inevitable, since a third of military enterprises were located in East Ukraine during the Soviet era and the majority of Russian-speaking Ukrainians wish to maintain the traditional relationship they have with Russia.

Once the civil war erupts, its brutality shall far surpass that of Syria, for neither the EU nor Russia will back down. One possible result is the division of the country between East and West. When the Republic of Moldova declared its independence, Russians within the country also declared the founding of the Transnistria Republic, thus setting a precedent — though even today, it receives recognition from no one.

If the U.S. instigates the EU to use force against Ukraine, it may evoke a full-scale European war, not ruling out the possibility of a devastating blow to EU countries by Russia’s powerful nuclear arsenals.

Ukraine is our country’s imperative military-industrial partner. We ought to pay close attention to the aggravation of chaos in the Ukraine.


乌克兰内战枪声已打响
  乌克兰内战的枪声已经打响。其主要标志是美国和欧盟全力支持的反对派中的极端分子已经拿起了武器,暴力示威抗议活动演变成了枪战。
  在西方公然支持下,乌克兰反政府示威活动一开始就具有暴力倾向,示威者用推土机冲击警察设立的防护栏,抢占市政府大楼和多座政府办公楼,强占执政党党部大楼,在基辅独立广场安营扎寨,焚烧轮胎,设立“火墙”,暴力应对警察清场。
  美国和欧盟一直力挺乌克兰反政府力量,甚至派出高官到基辅独立广场,为反政府示威呐喊助威。所以,抗议活动才越演越烈,有恃无恐。昨天竟然发生了手持武器的“和平抗议者”追击并向正在奉命撤退的警察开枪,有人甚至活活打死正在救助受伤示威者的警察。冲突中,被打死的人中包括全副武装的警察,而数十名军警成了“和平示威者”们的俘虏。美国和欧盟竟然片面指责乌克兰政府血腥镇压了“和平示威”。
  美国和西方国家正在抛弃自己一贯倡导的民主选举制,改而支持街头暴力示威,推翻合法政府的“街头民主”运动。最典型的事例就是美国和西方国家全力支持埃及示威人群,推翻民选总统莫尔西。现在又在乌克兰重新导演通过街头暴力示威,推翻合法政府的把戏。人们会问:华盛顿、伦敦和巴黎能允许这样的“和平示威”吗?
  美国支持的示威者中的极端分子从军火库抢走了大批武器,包括导弹发射器。乌克兰军队被迫介入,提出了反恐的口号。如果美国继续支持极端分子用武力与乌克兰政府军对抗,那后果就是内战。
  美国和俄罗斯都在争夺乌克兰,乌克兰处境两难。乌克兰动乱的直接起因是总统亚努科维奇与莫斯科签订了贸易协议,冷落了欧盟。因为乌克兰目前面临经济困难,急需经济救助。欧盟向乌克兰提出的救助方案不仅钱太少,不能及时到位,而且附加了政治条件,必须释放亚努科维奇的政敌。
  亚努科维奇等米下锅,而欧盟却画饼充饥。在此情况,亚努科维奇只好转向莫斯科,得到了急需的150亿美元资金和廉价天然气。于是美国和欧盟气急败坏,为了逼迫亚努科维奇就范,不顾自己一直宣扬的民主和道德原则,公然支持反政府的暴力活动。
  一旦内战全面爆发,残酷性将远超叙利亚
  乌克兰是一个面积为60.37万平方公里,4555万人口的国家。说乌克兰语的人主要集中乌克兰西部地区。他们倾向于加入欧盟。说俄语的乌克兰人主要集中在靠近俄罗斯的东部地区。
  乌克兰问题的实质是苏联解体后,北约乘机东扩,极力压缩俄罗斯的影响空间。如今,美国和西方用推土机挖到了俄罗斯的墙角下,正在崛起的俄罗斯岂能坐以待毙?
  在乌克兰问题上,俄罗斯一直保持低调,没有多说话。但是,俄罗斯手中握有重要武器——乌克兰和欧洲国家需要的天然气等自然资源。
  美国除了煽动暴力抗议之外,手中并无反制利器。美国和西方提出的所谓制裁,充其量也就是俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫所说的“讹诈”。如果欧盟对乌克兰搞经济制裁,只能把乌克兰进一步推到俄罗斯一边。因为俄罗斯是乌克兰产品的传统市场,而乌克兰的产品在欧盟国家市场上很难销售。
  如果美国和欧盟鼓动和支持乌克兰内战,战争必然是高水平的。因为苏联时期的军工企业有1/3位于乌克兰东部,而这一地区说俄语的乌克兰人大多希望保持与俄罗斯的传统关系。
  一旦内战全面爆发,其残酷性将会大大超过叙利亚。欧盟和俄罗斯都不会让步。其结果之一可能是乌克兰被分裂成东西两部分。摩尔多瓦共和国宣布独立后,其境内的俄罗斯人也宣布成立了“德涅斯特河沿岸共和国”,就是先例。虽然迄今无人承认。
  如果欧盟在美国唆使下敢于对乌克兰动武,有可能诱发欧洲大战,不排除欧盟国家遭到俄罗斯强大核武库毁灭性打击的可能性。
  乌克兰是我国重要的军工合作伙伴。我们理应关注乌克兰正在日益恶化的混乱局面。(作者是前外交官)
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