Brace as America’s New Round of 'Democracy' Exports Hits the Asia-Pacific

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 28 March 2014
by Li Ying (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Darius Vukasinovic. Edited by Kyrstie Lane.
The “New Game” of U.S. Democracy in the Asia-Pacific

During the last four years of Obama’s consecutive terms in office, Obama’s promotion of democracy has been stepping up. In one regard, the personnel appointed by Obama in his second term to be responsible for foreign relations and security — for example: new Secretary of State John Kerry and National Security Adviser Susan Rice — have, all along, been absolutely meticulous in their dealings involving democratic rights. In another regard, economic turnaround has allowed Americans to regain their faith while numerous American anti-establishment organizations have renewed their activism. According to the U.S. federal budget report of 2013, the focus on the United States has, amid the many countries around the globe which “accept democracy,” seen a notable increase. This is especially evident in areas of U.S. Asia-Pacific strategy and the government’s 25 percent increase in revenues over the 2013 budget, both of which have spurred nongovernmental organizations like “Freedom House” and “National Endowment for Democracy” to further pursue their political agendas.

In December 2013, Susan Rice gave a public lecture on “rights issues.” This was the latest continuation in the U.S. political assembly’s citizenship debate, since Hillary Clinton’s public speech on Internet freedom. During her speech, Rice clearly outlined the four points of promoting U.S. democracy throughout the world in future: Don’t promote democracy down the barrel of a gun, take the middle road of compromise for the short term during this period of conflict between prosperity and U.S. democracy, use economic sanctions and foreign relations to pressure human rights violators, and promote a 21st century “human rights agenda” — this includes respecting equality between men and women, not discriminating against homosexuals, and protecting the development of a civil society. At first glance, Rice’s four points appear to imply some restraint on America’s attempts to convert other countries to democracy. But given that the U.S. has yet to begin both strongly stressing its own “democratic superiority” and taking on the promotion of “American style democracy” as its responsibility, then it is clear there will be no fundamental changes to the way the U.S. does things.

At the end of 2013, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry also took to the stage many times in the interests of “human rights issues.” On International Human Rights Day in December, Kerry spoke out saying that he would continue supporting those who advocated for human rights and those who had been (wrongfully) imprisoned. Afterward, Kerry called for the seeking out of a civil society leader in Laos, a man who had been missing for a long time, saying that this person had the air of a leader. When Kerry visited Vietnam and the Philippines, he also spoke out many times on human rights issues and even increased pressure on the Vietnamese government. America’s new round of Asia-Pacific democratic change is formed with the Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative. In December 2013, President Obama himself outlined the strategy via video address. In actuality, the U.S. Department of State had already begun related activities a year earlier. Judging by the scale of the activities and the government’s participation in them, the “youth leader” strategy might, in comparison with previous Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s Civil Society 2.0 strategy, become the benchmark project of America’s future four points of democracy reform. As the U.S. documents its strategy, over 65 percent of citizens aged 35 and under in the ASEAN regions are potentially covered by it. The U.S. will engage these potential candidates with ways to competitively cultivate leadership power, come to the U.S. to study, promote cultural exchange within regions, seek solutions to regional disputes, learn industrial technologies and English, and assist and support the cultivation of youth volunteers. All these [initiatives] will be used to promote the United States’ strength and its relations with ASEAN countries. For a long time those within American society have been the major supporters of and participants in the U.S. democratic reform movement. Nowadays, the core of these citizens have also hit upon subversive new techniques for promulgating democracy. For example the recently retired from office New York mayor, billionaire Michael Bloomberg, will soon be engaging vigorously in his newly self-created “consulting business.” In his 12 years in office as mayor of New York, Bloomberg personally paid $6.5 billion to defuse New York’s “economic time bomb,” created tens of thousands of new jobs, and fundamentally eliminated many of the “sicknesses” from which this mega-sized city was suffering. Now, he hopes to take his experience onto the international stage, offering to export his own “New York model” to other megacities around the globe. And of the ten most populous cities in the world, the majority is either in the Pacific or South Asia regions — so we can see that the Asia-Pacific will become a major focus for Bloomberg.

Techniques Will Become Ever More Crafty

Judging by Rice and Kerry’s speeches, along with the examples given involving actions by the U.S. government and its citizenry, Obama’s U.S. democracy export strategy has a unique quality about it. It embodies America’s attempt to “step out again” and propagate varieties of democratic transformation using experience and tutelage. From a theoretical standpoint, Obama’s line of thinking and ex-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s emphasis on soft power are both based on the same fundamentals. They emphasize techniques of nonviolence and noncoercion to promulgate American views and values to the world. In doing so, they protect the human resources engaged in human rights movements and use them to interfere in the internal workings of other countries’ governments. But in terms of concrete application, Obama’s methods are gentler, subtler than Hillary’s — they don’t appear to be a distinct project. The Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative has been in operation for over a year, it has been clearly reported in the media, yet it by far lacks that “mustering of forces” feeling as was seen behind Civil Society 2.0.

Furthermore, when considering its democratic strategy the U.S. is drawing upon its experiences — the Arab Spring, especially, had a profound effect upon its policymakers. Those within the sphere of the U.S. democratic strategy movement believe that not only do movements like the Arab Spring fail to change existing military governments within the regions in which they arise, but they also weaken the rule of law and do nothing to combat deeply entrenched ideologies that undermine civil rights. They also plunge regions into chaos, something that the U.S. does not want to see happen, because such chaos can go on to have a detrimental effect on U.S. foreign relations within the area. History has shown that each and every part of such forms of “democratic movements,” after they evolve into social upheaval, mostly ends in defeat for democratic change. America’s answer is to focus on building a stronger foundation for the shift toward democratic reform, without letting itself appear to be the instigator.

When reflecting on the ideas outlined above, the three major elements that can be seen in America’s democracy export strategy are as follows: First, emphasize the export of rule of law and its methods of resolution. In the past when the U.S. was promoting democracy, it emphasized imitation of the American system. It wanted others to establish a system involving the separation of powers and “one person, one vote.” To this effect, the U.S. normally operated on policies involving the provision of foreign aid and preconditions that relationships would change. But these overarching political ploys could not resolve the social problems that were prevalent throughout emerging nations, and so their successes were limited. Now, the U.S. will plan to export the essences of democratic details by tailoring them to a specific country’s need for democratic reform assistance. For example, in recent years Indonesia and the Philippines have been hit with natural disasters like typhoons and tsunamis. The precise aid that the U.S. provided to these Southeast Asian nations was used to build a disaster prevention and response network, thereby advancing U.S. presence within the region’s civil societies. Southeast Asian nations ordinarily hope to increase their exports to the United States and accept the products of U.S. industry in return. So the U.S. immediately went into the Trans-Pacific Partnership with conditions based on environmental protection, country production restrictions, freedom to form labor unions and arbitration for ultranational militarism. Through the deals it struck with these partner countries, the U.S. was able to export the fundamentals of American society and its economic system under the banner of increasing trade with the United States.

The second element in the strategy is to aim at the youth, the grassroots movements and the middle class — those that will serve as the future support pillars of society. In previous times, the American democratic conversion movement desired to progress using the “top layer route.” It emphasized cultivation, influence and even absorbed the essence of the host country’s political system and trained political representatives within it. In this way, the U.S. hung its hopes on a minority to push forward with American democratic reform within these countries. But as the situations in Iraq, Iran and the revolutions within Central Asia have demonstrated, although these tactics could have a short-term positive effect for the U.S. reform process, over the long term, the representatives they trained would often revert to seeking personal profit before anything else. At the same time, they could even come to have a falling out with the United States. Now the U.S. seeks to broadcast its message of democracy among the youth, the grassroots and the middle class. It uses a variety of methods to export its American values and foster appreciation for them. It promulgates an admiration for American society and its ways of thinking to the populace. The U.S. is especially making cities and the middle class key factors in its strategies. It believes that in the coming international society, the use of cities will become more prominent. In turn, the problems brought along by urbanization and social conflict will then become a focal point. The U.S. will need only to get a grip on a few world leading specialists on city management, and it will then be in an outstanding position to instruct other countries on using them.

The third strategy is especially clever and could have deep and penetrating effects. Rice’s speech demonstrates that the uniqueness of America’s foreign democratic reform strategy is already being put into effect. For the good of its own country, the U.S. can accept the issues of compromise and concession into the civic debate. And by doing so, it creates for the U.S. an even greater gulf between itself and all other nondemocratic countries with which it comes into contact. For example, in the United States’ softening foreign policy changes toward Burma and Vietnam, it doesn’t persist with old quarrels over civil rights. The U.S. also doesn’t pursue unrealistic attempts to change standards of human rights, which were so often issues in its previous relations with these countries. Rather, the U.S. uses access, economics and the prize of diplomacy to induce softer changes on those countries’ national stages — similar strategies have also had a positive effect up until now. These changes have given the U.S. more freedom to move on the foreign policy front, and they give flexibility to its push for democratic reform. By combining its foreign strategy and promises of economic profitability together, more channels are opened. This way the U.S. can incrementally build a solid foundation to export democratic reform, and it can tackle foreign relations and human rights together. Two birds with one stone.

“Here’s the Carrot” Versus “Here’s the Stick” — the Growing Peril

As the examples given above show, the U.S. diplomatic reform movement is changing its methods. It is focusing less on trying to topple and instead opting to instruct and poison. Its methods are becoming more invisible and more complex, eluding discovery by those who are on the watch for them. Just as this democratic reform technique sprouted from change for everyday American citizens, so too do its techniques focus on pandering to the discontent and needs of grassroots citizens. It focuses on education, health care, income and societal management to spread its initiative of American qualities, get action on issues or assist its policies. It is difficult to look into the future and predict how these democratic reform activities will alter ordinary benevolent acts, such as foreign aid, disaster relief and commerce. This implies that the instant a cooperating country starts to become intractable or prohibitory in any way, it could end up harming a great number of its citizens’ personal profits. As a result, there will be a backlash from the people. From this, we can see that the U.S. democratic change movement is already moving away from the hackneyed dichotomy of “infiltrate” and “don’t infiltrate.” Instead, it is engaging with local governments in a war for the civil hearts of the people.

The author is an assistant researcher on the U.S. for China’s Modern International Relations Research Center.


李峥:警惕美国新一轮民主输出冲击亚太
2014-03-28 11:32 环球网 我有话说 字号:TT
《世界知识》2014年第3期 原题:“温柔”的背后——警惕美国新一轮民主输出
美国亚太民主化的“新把戏”
奥巴马连任以来,在推广民主方面相比过去四年更加积极。一方面,奥巴马在第二任期所任命的负责外交、安全事务的官员,例如,新任国务卿克里与新任国家安全事务助理苏珊·赖斯,对民主人权事物一直就十分上心。另一方面,经济转好也开始让美国重拾自信,美国众多非政府组织重新开始活跃。根据美国2013财年预算,美国在全球多数地区的“民主投入”都有显著提升,尤其是在美国的战略重点亚太地区,投入相比2012财年同比增长25%,这足以让“自由之家”、“民主基金会”等非政府组织开辟更多项目了。
2013年12月,苏珊·赖斯就“人权问题”发表公开演讲,这是继希拉里发表“互联网自由”公开讲话以来,美国政界再次聚集“民主”议题。在这次讲话中,赖斯明确提出了未来美国全球民主推广的四个指针:不通过“枪杆子”推广民主;在民主人权与美国国家利益冲突时接受短期折中办法;对侵犯人权行为施以经济制裁和外交压力;推动21世纪的“人权议程”,这其中包括尊重男女平等、非歧视同性恋、保护发展公民社会等。乍一看,赖斯的四点方针好像意味着美国在对外民主化上有所收敛,但只要美国仍然把强调自己的“民主优越性”、推广“美式民主”视为己任,那么其做法就不会有什么根本区别。
国务卿克里也在2013年年底数次为“人权问题”站台。12月,他先在“国际人权日”上发表声明,称将“继续支持那些因为倡导人权而被关押的人们”,后又呼吁寻找老挝一名失踪已久的“公民社会”领导人,称此人“有领导风范”。克里出访越南、菲律宾期间,多次谈及人权问题,还就此向越南政府施加压力。美国新一轮亚太民主化的典型案例是启动“东南亚青年领袖”计划。2013年12月,奥巴马亲自通过视频讲话的方式启动该计划。其实,早在一年前,美国国务院就已经开始了相关活动。从活动的规模和政府的投入来看,“青年领袖”计划堪比前任国务卿希拉里·克林顿提出的“公民社会2.0”计划,将成为美国未来四年民主战略的“标杆项目”。美国在计划书中表示,东盟地区65%以上的民众在35岁以下,均属于计划的覆盖人群。美国将针对其需要提供“领导力培训竞赛”、“赴美留学”、“促进区域内学术交流”、“探索解决地区问题的方案”、“劳动技术和英语培训”及“培训青年志愿者”等方面的援助和支持,借此促进美国加强与东盟的联系。美国社会长期以来一直是美国民主化战略的主要支持者和参与者,如今,这些民间精英也想出了一些隐性推广民主化的“新手段”。例如,刚刚从纽约市长任上退下来的亿万富豪布隆伯格,就将退休后的精力投入到自己新创的“咨询事业”中。在任职纽约市长的12年期间,他自掏腰包6.5亿美元拆解了纽约的“财政炸弹”,创造了数十万就业岗位,根除了这座超大型城市的若干“城市病”。如今,他希望把这些经验推广到全世界,向更多超大型城市输出自己的“纽约模式”。而全球人口最多的十大城市中,大多都分布在太平洋两岸及南亚地区,可见亚太将是布隆伯格施展的重点。
手法更为灵活多变
从赖斯、克里的演说及美国政府和民间近期的一系列举措来看,奥巴马的民主输出战略有其独特之处,体现了美国在经历若干民主化经验和教训后的“重新起步”。在理念上,奥巴马的思路与希拉里·克林顿担任国务卿时期强调的“软实力”一脉相承,强调通过非暴力、非胁迫的方式推广美国世界观和价值观,以保护人权活动人士为名干涉他国内政。但是在具体做法上,奥巴马比希拉里更为柔和、隐蔽,不喜欢搞“形象工程”。“东南亚青年领袖”计划开展一年多来,媒体上鲜有报道,远没有“公民社会2.0”那般兴师动众,但各项工作却稳步推进。
此外,从此轮民主化战略来看,美国吸取了过往的经验,尤其对“阿拉伯之春”进行了深刻反思。美国民主战略思想界认为,“阿拉伯之春”不仅未能改变该地区军人干政、法制薄弱、漠视人权等传统顽疾,还使该地区陷入美国不愿看到的混乱之中,甚至有损于美国外交利益。历史经验表明,凡是此轮“民主化转型”演变为社会动荡后,“民主化”几乎都以失败告终。美国应更重视营造“民主化”发生的基础,而不要做“点火者”。
在上述理念和反思的指引下,美国此轮民主输出呈现出三大主要特点:一是注重输出法律制度和解决方案。以往美国在推行民主化时,强调“照搬”美国制度,要求建立“三权分立”、“一人一票”的制度体系,常以此为提供外援、改善关系的先决条件。但这些“高大上”的政治制度无法解决落后国家的社会发展问题,因此难以成功。如今,美国则将更多精力用在输出“民主的细节”,根据对象国需要制定相应的“民主化援助”计划。例如,近些年印尼、菲律宾先后遭遇海啸台风等天灾袭击,美国恰逢其时地提出“帮助”东南亚国家修建防灾减灾网络,借此推进当地“公民社会”的力量建设;东南亚国家普遍希望扩大对美出口,承接美国产业输出,美国随即在《跨太平洋伙伴关系协议》(TPP)中加入关于环保、限制国企、独立工会、跨国争议仲裁等条款,打着帮助对象国提升在美贸易分工地位的旗号输出美国的各项基本经济社会制度。
二是瞄准青年、草根、中产阶级等未来社会支柱。以往,美国民主化喜欢走“上层路线”,注重培养、影响乃至收买对象国政治精英,培育政治代理人,期望由此类“少数人”推动美国化的内部改革。但伊拉克、伊朗和中亚颜色革命后的情况表明,此类行动虽然可能短期起效,但长期来看这些代理人仍旧“唯利是图”,随时可能与美国翻脸。如今,美国开始将主要目标放在广大青年、草根和中产阶级上,利用各种方式向其输出美式价值观,造就大量欣赏、钦慕美国社会制度和思维模式的普通民众。美国尤其看重城市和中产阶级的作用,认为在未来国际社会中,城市的作用将更为突出,城市化带来的问题将成为社会矛盾的焦点。只要美国能在城市治理上掌握一些领先世界的“绝活”,那么美国就仍然能够居高临下的“指导”他国。
三是手法更为灵活多变,能屈能伸。赖斯的演说表明,民主化在美国对外战略中的“特殊性”正在下降。为了本国国家利益,美国能够接受在民主问题上的“妥协和让步”,使美国在与所谓的“非民主”国家接触中有更大空间和余地。例如,美国改变了对缅甸、越南等国外交的生硬做法,不再追究“民主人权”上的旧账,或以一些不切实际的“人权改善”标准作为改善双边关系的前提条件,而是通过接触和经济、外交方面的“奖赏”促使对象国立场松动,类似做法迄今效果良好。这种改变也使美国在外交行动上有更大的自由空间,可以更为灵活地将民主化、对外战略和经济利益结合在一起,多渠道、慢慢地向对象国输出民主化“基础”,从而在外交和人权两方面一箭双雕。
“糖来了”比“狼来了”更加危险
上述一些事例表明,美国民主化的强制性、颠覆性色彩正在减弱,而诱导性、蛊惑性正在增强,手法变得更加隐蔽、复杂,更难以被发现或防范。由于美国民主化的主要对象已转变为一般民众,其具体措施做法开始积极迎合草根民众的不满和需求,如在教育、医疗、收入、社会治理等方面提出带有鲜明美国特色的倡议、解决方案或援助条件,这些民主化行动很多时候已难以和正常合法的慈善、外交援助、救灾和商业合作区分开来。这意味着,一旦对象国采取强硬手段打击或禁止此类行动,将伤及不少民众的切身利益和感受,遭致反感。由此看来,民主化已经不再是一场“渗透”与“反渗透”斗争,而是美国与当地政府之间争取“民心”的斗争了。(作者是中国现代国际关系研究院美国所助理研究员)
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