Pulling the U.S. to Scare China Is a Joke on the South China Sea

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 7 May 2014
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anthony Chantavy. Edited by Robert O'Connor.
U.S.-Philippine joint military exercises commenced on the 5th, clearly as a threat to China. As if Manila’s support of the United States was not enough, there are some people in the U.S. who agree that Washington should launch its own strategy to prevent China's encroachment on islands and reefs in the South China Sea. These people’s descriptions of the South China Sea policy and hopes for the U.S. are quite simplistic and labeling, far from Asia-Pacific geopolitical realities.

What is happening in the South Sea? Is China really an unscrupulous bully to the small countries around it? If that were the case, then the Philippines and Vietnam would not occupy so many islands and reefs in Nansha. Seeing how the Philippines often appears savage, if aliens came to the South Sea I fear they would view the Philippines as the boss of this region.

Is the United States destined to stage a final China-U.S. military showdown in the South and East China Seas? It’s not that simple. The Philippines and Japan attempt to involve the United States in their territorial disputes with China to save themselves trouble. International relations after the Cold War have never had such blatant logic.

Firstly, disputes over the islands and reefs in the South and East Seas are disputes of national interests. These interests are complexly intertwined, but disputes revolving around them should not lead to strategic confrontation within the country. A conflict of interest will start a game with everyone. In addition to China acting this way with its islands and reefs, the U.S. has also stuck its foot into this affair. Until now, the China-U.S. game has never been so intense in the history of big-power relations.

The extent to which China and the U.S. have fought in the South China Sea comes from both China-U.S. and multi-party interactions. Washington has no decision-making power by itself, and the wish of the Philippines is not a dominant factor. China 's strength and attitude have had more and more flexibility; after all, China is not a soft persimmon that people can pinch however they want.

China and the U.S. are the world's major powers. They both have a big day to pass through. The issue of the islands and reefs has cut into China-U.S. relations. China should not hope for the U.S. to remain truly neutral in the dispute, and the Philippines and Japan should not hope for the U.S. to repair China-U.S. relations for their sake. America can only work with the dispute depending on how it intends to get along with China’s strategies.


China has gradually gained confidence to withstand its game with the United States from the assessment of the overall strategic situation in the Asia-Pacific region. The U.S. needs China, and not allowing China-U.S. relations to break down is in its interests. Washington is not at all willing to let its fleet confront China’s navy in the South Sea.


What’s important is that China has not truly provoked the U.S. The South China Sea dispute has lasted a while, and people with the slightest bit of knowledge can distinguish between restraint and caution in South Sea policies. China is not an imperialist country. In the recent friction in the South Sea, China has neither used military force nor threatened war with the Philippines.

Countries involved must let go of naive ideas to pull the United States along to help them confront China. Their disputes with China ultimately depend on their respective negotiations with Beijing being resolved. They have no strength to challenge China or ability to acquire such strength from the U.S. Reasoning with China is more in line with their interests.


The United States Seventh Fleet could not frighten China. The United States' military equipment in Guam, as well as its newly deployed military power in the Asia-Pacfic, has little effect on China. The circling of its warships in the South Sea produces completely different psychological effects on the Philippines and on China.

China does not hope that U.S. military presence in Asia will be orderly, but we are gaining more and more power and means to counter its various tricks. Continually accumulated experience and ability can help us work with the U.S. in the new framework of big-power relations.

The Philippines and Japan should not attempt to cover themselves with America’s big banner. They must completely re-understand China and change the ways they handle conflicts of interest. To scare China with the United States is a concept of a small country.


美菲“肩并肩”联合军演5日开启,剑锋明显指向中国。马尼拉对美国的支持仍嫌不够,美国国内也有一些人鼓吹华盛顿应当推出自己的南中国海国家战略,阻止中国对南海岛礁的“蚕食”。这些人对中国南海政策的描述和对美国的期待相当简单化和标签化,与亚太地缘政治现实相去甚远。

  南海在发生什么?真的是中国在“肆无忌惮欺负周围小国”吗?如果真是那样,菲律宾、越南就不会占着南沙那么多岛礁了。看看菲律宾经常表现出的猖狂样子,如果外星人来到南海,恐怕他们会错以为菲律宾才是这个地区的实力老大。

  美国来南海、东海,就注定这里将最终上演中美的军事摊牌吗?事情也远非这么简单。菲、日等试图把它们与中国的领土纠纷转化成中美之间的直接对抗,这对它们来说太省事了,冷战后的国际关系并不存在这样赤裸裸的逻辑。

  南海及东海岛礁之争首先是国家利益之争,这些利益盘根错节,性质复杂,但围绕它们的纠纷本不应导致域内国家的战略对抗。利益冲突会引起各方的博弈,除了中国与岛礁声索国在这样做,美国也插进脚来。但中美迄今于南海地区的博弈,在大国关系史上算不上是激烈的。

  中美在南海斗到什么程度,是由中美双方及多方的互动共同打造的。华盛顿单独决定不了,菲律宾的愿望更不是主导性因素。中国的力量和态度都在这当中有了越来越强的塑造力,说到底,中国不是谁想怎么捏就可以怎么捏的软柿子。

  中美都是世界大国,两国都有“很大的日子”要过。东亚岛礁问题已切入进中美关系,中国休要幻想美国会在涉及中国的岛礁之争中保持真正“中立”,菲日等则休要幻想美国会为它们的利益修定中美关系的性质。美国只会利用亚洲岛礁之争,它怎么在这里挑唆,它自己出头到什么程度,很大程度取决于它打算怎么同中国战略相处。

  中国逐渐有了能够承受与美在南海博弈的自信,这部分来自于对中美两国亚太整体战略态势的评估。美国需要中国,不让中美关系破裂符合美国的利益。华盛顿并不愿意它的舰队在南海同中国海军尖锐对峙。

  重要的是,中国并没有真正刺激美国。南海争议由来已久,世界稍有见识的人都能分辨出中国南海政策的克制和谨慎,中国不是一个帝国主义国家。最近的南海摩擦中,中国都未使用军事力量,也未对菲律宾等进行战争威胁。

  有关国家都需放弃美国帮它们对抗中国的幼稚想法,它们同中国的纠纷最终要靠各自同北京通过谈判双边解决。它们没实力同中国来硬的,美国的实力它们根本调动不了。与中国讲理,比拉着美国做靠山对中国耍横,更符合它们的利益。

  美国第七舰队吓唬不住中国,美在关岛的军事装备集结和其军事力量在亚太的新部署难以转化成现实遏制力,因而对中国起不了多大实际作用。它的军舰在南海兜几圈,对菲律宾和对中国产生的心理作用完全不同。

  中国不幻想美国在亚洲的军事存在会规规矩矩,但我们正越来越有力量和手段抵消其在这里的各种“小动作”,不断积累的经验和能力能够帮助我们在新型大国关系框架下,同美在南海周旋。

  菲日等别再试图拉美国这张大旗做虎皮,它们需要全面重新认识中国,改变它们同中国利益摩擦的方式。总想用美国吓唬中国,这是小国之见。
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