American Counterterrorism: The Stronger the Opposition, the Stronger the Response?

Published in Global Network
(China) on 12 September 2014
by Haidong Li (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jessica Moore. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
September 11 happened 13 years ago today, completely changing the American concept of security and making the war on terror America’s top priority. With strong public support, the Bush administration defined a counterterrorism strategy that used the military to drive out and overthrow the Taliban, only to find out later that Saddam Hussein’s regime had no affiliation with al-Qaida. While the United States succeeded in crippling the source of al-Qaida’s 9/11 attacks, it was unable to extricate itself from the post-war reconstruction quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Obama’s criticism of the Bush administration’s counterterrorism strategy won him the presidential election. Henceforth, his rise to power focused on enacting policies to completely withdraw U.S. armed forces from Iraq starting in 2011, and from Afghanistan by 2014. The Obama administration originally hoped that withdrawing troops from the Middle East would ease the domestic political and economic predicament.

The Islamic State beheaded two American reporters last month in appalling videos and took control of a majority of the region, including the eastern part of Syria and the northern part of Iraq, which is forcing the Obama administration to reconsider its counterterrorism strategy in the Middle East. The return of U.S. armed forces to Iraq essentially throws Obama’s five-year effort to withdrawal U.S. troops from the region down the drain, paying no heed to America’s 10-year presence in the Middle East and the complete failure of U.S. counterterrorism efforts in the region. Obama is sitting on the fence, caught in a difficult dilemma. To demonstrate a renewed resolve to fight terrorism and prevent domestic criticism, the Obama administration declared a “proxy war” through the creation of three key initiatives intended to block the Islamic State’s tactics: carrying out air raids to cripple their power, backing Iraqi and Kurd troops to encircle and annihilate them, and supporting the Syrian opposition in getting rid of the Islamic State within Syria’s borders. However, don’t America’s initiatives to defeat the Islamic State have the clear-cut characteristics of extreme terrorism in and of themselves?

In fact, as if to reopen Pandora’s box, the United States is likely to re-enter the fight against terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa as if enchanted by a spell: U.S. armed forces will overthrow or cripple anti-American powers, only to have even more anti-American factions emerge soon after. After Saddam Hussein was overthrown, various extremist groups, including the Islamic State, treated Iraq as a haven to recharge their batteries; after the fall of the Gadhafi regime, a variety of anti-American extremist forces emerged in North Africa; and after Assad was weakened, entrenching Syria in a civil war, the Islamic State overtook a large area of the eastern part of the country. American efforts to counter terrorism in the Middle East are genuine, but always result in more chaos in the region. The Obama administration’s desire to finally break the curse in the Middle East and defeat the Islamic State is worth a further look.

Most importantly, it will take time to put all three stages of the strategy into place, as he will run into numerous domestic political, economic and social issues, making the outlook for the plan’s successful implementation during the remaining two years of his term not very optimistic. If Obama is unable to completely eradicate the Islamic State during his term, then there is a high degree of uncertainty whether it will be possible for the next president to continue to carry out these policies. If Obama focuses all of his international security strategy from here on out on coming up with a response to the Islamic State, then his repeated advertisement of the importance of engineering diplomacy and rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific is likely to be reduced to nothing, eventually becoming a mockery. Regardless of how he handles it, he is bound to leave his successor with a mess.

Over the past five years, the Obama administration’s international security strategy has been defined by the following characteristics: a clumsy display of “soft power” at the diplomatic level and the withdrawal of U.S. armed forces at the military level. The Obama administration never anticipated the challenge brought about by the Islamic State, and the necessity to deploy the use of military force on a large scale, which is why Obama remarked, “We don’t have a strategy yet to combat ISIS” in an interview last month. Constrained by domestic pressure, the Obama administration may be planning future air raids as a means of restoring military presence in Iraq and Syria, reviving strong criticism of the Bush administration’s counterterrorism policies in the Middle East. Of course, the Obama administration insists the military will not become involved in fighting a war on the ground, but this is just a far-fetched excuse to justify his decision to withdraw U.S. armed forces from the region. However, with such reluctance to involve the U.S. military, how will he manage to defeat the Islamic State?

It must be said that the Obama administration’s vow to build a global coalition against the Islamic State is a solid resolution, but whether or not it will actually succeed in defeating the Islamic State’s tactics remains to be seen. What is more clear is that in response to the Middle East’s extreme anti-American acts of terrorism, America is likely to return to the use of large-scale military force, but this time spread even more unchecked.


13年前的今天发生的“9·11事件”彻底改变了美国的安全观,让反恐成为美国战略规划的第一要务。在强大民意支持下,小布什政府确定了以军事手段反恐的策略,先以战争赶走了支持恐怖主义基地组织的塔利班政权,再以战争推翻了后来证明与基地组织毫无关联的萨达姆政权。美国确实削弱了发起9·11恐怖袭击的基地组织,但它却深陷入阿富汗与伊拉克战后重建泥潭,难以自拔。
  奥巴马以抨击小布什政府军事反恐而赢得总统大选。上台伊始即采取“撒手”政策,于2011年将美军完全撤出了伊拉克,并计划2014年底撤出驻阿富汗美军。奥巴马政府原本希望以体面撤军来缓解国内政治与经济面临的困局,并将军事聚焦点移向亚太,但事与愿违。阿富汗境内塔利班势力在美军撤出后大有卷土重来之势,伊拉克已然成了恐怖极端势力滋生蔓延的温床。
  ISIS在过去一个月内斩首两名美国记者的骇人视频及其控制叙利亚东部与伊拉克北部广大区域的现状,迫使奥巴马政府不得不重新考虑中东反恐战略。如美军“撤出”后再“重返”伊拉克,奥巴马5年时间里已完成的撤军进程将前功尽弃;如置之不理,美国过去10余年里在中东地区的反恐努力将彻底以失败告终。奥巴马骑墙难下,左右为难。为展示反恐决心,堵塞国内指责,奥巴马政府基本确定下了以“代理人战争”为关键举措的三阶段消灭ISIS的策略:美军空袭削弱ISIS强劲势头、支持伊拉克和库尔德等武装力量地面围剿ISIS、支持叙利亚温和反对派武装力量清除叙境内ISIS。但这能铲除中东地区以反美为鲜明特色的极端恐怖主义力量吗?
  实际上,如同频繁打开潘多拉的盒子那样,美国很可能会再次进入其在中东北非反恐的“魔咒”之中:美军推翻或削弱了一个反美力量,随后就会有更多的反美力量出现。  萨达姆被推翻后,包括ISIS在内的中东各种极端力量将伊拉克当作了自身养精蓄锐的避难所;卡扎菲政权垮台后,利比亚成了北非各种反美极端力量奔往的国家;阿萨德被削弱后,比基地更为极端的ISIS控制了深陷内战之中的叙利亚东部广大区域。美国在中东的反恐意愿应该是真诚的,但是其反恐结果总是会引发区域更多的混乱出现。此次奥巴马政府对ISIS的强力围剿会否打破反恐背景下始终困扰美国的“魔咒”,这值得人们仔细观察。
  更为重要的是,三阶段策略的实施将耗费时日,面临国内众多政治、经济、社会议题挑战的奥巴马政府能否在余下两年多任期内成功落实该策略,依然不容乐观。如奥巴马任内无法完成对ISIS的彻底清除,那么下一届美国总统会否延续此策略,这也存在高度的不确定性;如果奥巴马将其今后两年的外交安全关注焦点放到应对ISIS上来,那么他任内反复标榜作为最重要“外交工程”的“亚太再平衡战略”很可能会因彻底空壳化而最终变为一个笑话。不论奥巴马如何处理其外交政策,留给其继任者的都必将是个烂摊子。
  奥巴马政府过去5年多外交与安全战略实践记录显示出如下鲜明特点:外交层面在全球范围内笨拙地展示“巧实力”,军事层面则是在全球范围内总体收缩。  奥巴马政府未曾料及ISIS带来的挑战会令美国大规模动用武力应对的程度,这也是为什么奥巴马在上月底接受媒体采访时说“美国在如何应对ISIS威胁问题上还没有策略”的原因所在。迫于国内压力,奥巴马政府以“空袭”方式军事重返伊拉克并可能计划未来空袭叙利亚,而这在某种程度上又回到了其之前强烈抨击的小布什政府中东反恐政策的老路。当然,奥巴马坚持美军介入以不参与打地面战为前提,这也是奥巴马为其第一届任期内撤军伊拉克决定的牵强辩解。但以如此勉强或犹豫的意愿来动用美国武装力量,如何能达到其预期目标呢?
  应该说,奥巴马政府誓建全球反对ISIS联盟的决心是坚定的,但是其击败ISIS的策略会否取得成功则仍需观察。较为明确的是,中东地区以反美为鲜明特色的极端恐怖主义力量很可能会因美国再次大规模动用武力而更为泛滥。
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