International oil prices have experienced a steady downward trend since June. Two indicators are causing concern for Ecuador and could impact the National Treasury. The West Texas Intermediate, which is the crude marker for our country, has fallen at the start of September to $93 after having been more than $102 per barrel. Today, Oriente Crude sells at $87.9, while in June, it reached $105. Both make up the Ecuadorian sale of 550,000 barrels per day. Discount must be added to the quality of Ecuadorian oil, which despite not being rated as high quality, currently costs around $10 for each oil barrel exported. Various converging factors have caused this variation: the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere, which reduces the amount of fuel consumption; the expectation of reserves and exploitation of shale oil in the United States (oil “fracking”); and the maintenance of extraction levels in Iran and the Arab countries. Certainly, what is taking place in Syria and Iraq could affect prices, especially the American bombing of wells controlled by the Islamic State, which continues to sell oil in the areas it has captured. Normally, conflict will cause prices to rise. In Ecuador's case, setting oil prices is key to financing the general budget for 2015.
Los precios internacionales del petróleo han experimentado una tendencia sostenida a la baja desde el mes de junio. Dos indicadores inquietan al Ecuador y podrían impactar en el Erario Nacional. El West Texas Intermediate -que es el crudo marcador para nuestro país-, después de estar a más de USD 102 por barril, ha caído a principios de septiembre a USD 93. El Crudo Oriente se paga hoy a 87,9 mientras en junio alcanzó los USD 105. Ambos componen la oferta ecuatoriana de 550 000 barriles diarios. Se debe añadir el castigo para el crudo nacional por la calidad, que pese a que en los últimos años no se estimó en un rango elevado, actualmente bordea los USD 10 por cada barril de petróleo exportado. Para esta variación de precios convergen varios factores. La temporada veraniega en el Hemisferio Norte, que baja los niveles de consumo de combustibles; la expectativa por las reservas y explotación del petróleo de esquisto en Estados Unidos (‘fracking’ petrolero), y el mantenimiento de los niveles de extracción de Irán y los países árabes. Ciertamente lo que ocurra en Siria e Iraq podría mover el tablero de precios, sobre todo por el bombardeo estadounidense a los pozos controlados por el Estado Islámico, que sigue comercializando el crudo de las áreas tomadas. Normalmente los conflictos empujan el precio hacia arriba. En el caso ecuatoriano, la determinación del precio del crudo es clave para el financiamiento del Presupuesto General para el 2015.
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We are faced with a "scenario" in which Washington's exclusive and absolute dominance over the entire hemisphere, from Greenland and Canada in the north to the southern reaches of Argentina and Chile.
Venezuela is likely to become another wasted crisis, resembling events that followed when the U.S. forced regime changes in Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq.
We are faced with a "scenario" in which Washington's exclusive and absolute dominance over the entire hemisphere, from Greenland and Canada in the north to the southern reaches of Argentina and Chile.
The message is unmistakable: there are no absolute guarantees and state sovereignty is conditional when it clashes with the interests of powerful states.
