Tomorrow

Published in Excélsior
(Mexico) on 3 November 2014
by Ana Paula Ordorica (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Guido Montesano. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
The foretold Republican victory tomorrow will be because of resentment votes against Barack Obama.

Tomorrow, the U.S. will have its midterm elections. Americans will vote on who will occupy the 435 seats of the House of Representatives, 33 of the 100 seats of the Senate, and 33 local governments and 46 local legislatures.

The stage is set for a Republican triumph; they would keep control of the House of Representatives, as well as taking for themselves multiple governments and the Senate. It's a catastrophic outlook for Obama and his administration — catastrophic for a president with a record-low approval rating.

What is going on in the United States? Why is there such anger and disapproval toward Obama?

Tomorrow's election will not be a show of support for Republicans and their neoconservatism, but rather a reflection of people's disappointment with Obama.

It's not about the triumph of the right over liberals; instead, it's a complaint against a president who can't be a leader, according to American feelings: at least not what the leader of the U.S. requires during these times of huge issues as regards geopolitics, economics and even health, considering the Ebola outbreak.

The issue is that since the foretold Republican victory tomorrow will be because of resentment votes against Barack Obama and not positive votes for the right, the Republican Party's victory will be merely Pyhrric — a victory that the Republicans lose when they win.

Why? If they don't understand that they won because the voters chose to punish Obama, a fact they refuse to accept, Republicans will favor their party's far right. Such an extreme turn will most likely cost them the presidential election in 2016.

Americans don't like the tea party. They also don't like the avoidance on part of the state regarding the social and economic issues of the common folk. They despise how Wall Street is the favorite and Main Street forgotten.

But Republicans don't seem to understand that. By favoring their most far-right sectors, as they have been doing since George W. Bush's administration, they will be digging a hole so deep they won't be able to come out with a suitable presidential candidate for 2016.

This is the challenge for Republicans once the midterm election is over.

On the other hand, Democrats can't simply blame Obama for their very likely defeat. Representatives, senators and governors have also failed a large part of their voters.

There are three sectors of the population that have consistently supported the Democrats, and now feel disappointed with them, and have abandoned such allegiance or have turned toward Republicans. I'm talking about women, the young and Hispanics. The three groups were essential for Obama's victory in 2008 and 2012; now, the polls show a drop in the allegiance of these three populations to the party.

Starting Wednesday, both Republicans and Democrats will have to start working on their presidential strategies for 2016, taking all these factors into account.


Mañana

El anunciado triunfo de los republicanos el día de mañana se deberá a votos de castigo hacia Barack Obama

Mañana son las elecciones intermedias en Estados Unidos. Se renuevan los 435 escaños de la Cámara de Representantes; 33 de los 100 escaños del Senado; 38 gubernaturas y 46 legislaturas a nivel local.

El escenario pinta para que los republicanos arrasen, manteniendo el control de la Cámara de Representantes y arrebatando, además de varias gubernaturas, el control del Senado.

Un escenario calamitoso para Obama y su gobierno. Para un Presidente con índices de aprobación récord, por lo bajos.

¿Qué está pasando en EU? ¿Por qué tanto enojo y desaprobación para Obama?

La elección de mañana será no una reivindicación para los republicanos y su neoconservadurismo, sino un reflejo de la decepción con Obama.

No se trata del triunfo de la derecha sobre el liberalismo, sino una queja con un Presidente que, los americanos sienten, no ha sabido ser un líder. Cuando menos, no el líder que requiere EU en momentos de enormes retos geopolíticos, económicos y hasta de salud, por aquello del ébola.

El tema es que, como el anunciado triunfo de los republicanos el día de mañana se deberá a votos de castigo hacia Obama y no votos de premio para la ideología de derecha, la victoria para el Partido Republicano podrá acabar siendo una victoria pírrica. Una victoria en la que ganando, pierden los republicanos.

¿Por qué? Porque si no entienden que ganaron como castigo a Obama —cosa que no parecen aceptar— los republicanos tenderán a premiar a la ultraderecha de su partido. Y ese viraje tan a la derecha podrá, muy probablemente, costarles la elección presidencial de 2016.

A los estadunidenses no les gusta el Partido del Té. Tampoco les gusta este enorme desentendimiento del Estado sobre los asuntos sociales y económicos de la gente de a pie. Detestan que se premie más a Wall Street que a Main Street.

Pero los republicanos parecen no entender esto. Y al premiar a sus cuadros más ultraconservadores, como lo han venido haciendo desde la presidencia de George W. Bush, estarán cavando un agujero más profundo del cual muy probablemente no salgan a tiempo para presentar un candidato atractivo para la presidencial de 2016.

Ése es el reto para los republicanos una vez pasada esta elección intermedia.

Por su parte, para los demócratas, no todo es señalar a Obama como el culpable de su muy probable debacle. También han sido los senadores y representantes y algunos gobernadores los que le han fallado a parte importante de su electorado.

Hay tres sectores de la población que han apoyado consistentemente a los demócratas y que hoy se sienten decepcionados y han o abandonado esa simpatía o la han mudado hacia los republicanos.

Me refiero a las mujeres; los jóvenes y los hispanos. Los tres grupos fueron fundamentales para el triunfo de Obama en 2008 y 2012. Ahora, las encuestas muestran un descenso en la simpatía de estos tres sectores poblacionales hacia el partido.

A partir del miércoles, tendrán tanto republicanos como demócratas, que poner manos a la obra para sus estrategias hacia las presidenciales de 2016 tomando estos factores en cuenta.

This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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