A Masterful Play of International Policy
Published in El Mundo
(El Salvador) on 25 December 2014
by Aldo Álvarez (link to original)
(El Salvador) on 25 December 2014
by Aldo Álvarez (link to original)
Translated from
by Guido Montesano.
Edited by Nicholas Eckart.
There's been a recent international event which, owing to its far-reaching effects and direct importance to us, deserves special coverage and analysis: The declaration on the part of the U.S. and Cuba to restore full diplomatic relations (which have been broken since the ‘60s), and to agree to initiate talks of the highest level so as to end the embargo on Cuba, which, according to multiple analysts and members of the U.S. Democratic Party, has helped and not hindered Castro's regime, as it gave the perfect excuse to blame all manner of errors on the so-called "empire."
I believe this is an event of remarkable historical transcendence; no doubt Obama is thinking of using these last two years to work on how he wants to be remembered by history more than anything else. No doubt, this is a slap to Republicans’ face, as they have blocked almost every single one of Obama's initiatives for reform that were the platform of his campaign, from the health care system to immigration reform. Today Obama “rights” a wrong of American foreign policy and establishes the beginning of the end of an economic embargo that, I repeat, has helped more than harmed Castro's dictatorship.
Obama makes a masterful play of international chess today, taking off the political burden of having to handle establishing diplomatic relations and heaving it on the next president of the U.S., most likely Hillary Rodham Clinton, so he can avoid being worn down by a fight with the Republicans and focus on the meat of the great super-structural reforms that make up his main goal. Additionally, Obama has made a powerful political strategy. A situation of total control of the House of Representatives and the Senate by the Republican Party gives Clinton the perfect enemy to win the election; as things stand she can easily blame the mistakes of the Obama administration more on Republicans’ “stubborn” opposition than on Obama's executive decisions.
Moreover, it seems that Obama is winning the foreign policy match between himself and Nicolás Maduro. First, at the federal level Obama authorized an increase in drilling and fracking so as to obtain more oil from asbestos bitumen, therefore raising the offer of oil in the market, which in turn lowers international prices by flooding the U.S. and Canada with this type of oil. Furthermore, he noticeably decreased American dependence on Venezuelan oil and made a political approach to Venezuela's main ally in the continent: Cuba, with all that it implies.
The Castro brothers, knowing that in the future, due to the rising price of crude oil, Venezuela won't be able to supply them with the oil they need as it has been doing lately, accepted Obama's invitation (with an dose of "hyper pragmatism"), knowing that in doing so they open a road for foreign currencies to enter the island: remittances to family members, which the Castros know will help them make up for the decrease in the Venezuelan aid. At the same time, they have the chance to access a capital market that has been to this day closed to them due to, among other things, the embargo reaching foreign companies doing business both in Cuba and the U.S. Certainly a "masterful" play by Obama and a "clever" play by the Castro brothers (made out of concern for their country).
The one who stands to lose the most here: Nicolás Maduro. It seems the Castros never consulted with him about their decision — which is why Obama's political mind deserves my every praise, as this is high-level foreign policy.
Finally, I must say that Obama understood that the Cuban-American community is not as homogeneous or unified as it once was. A large part of the second and third generation supports steps toward reconciliation with the island. Obama, being the clever politician that he is, knows that with this move he obtains Democratic support in Florida, one of the states that sends the most votes to the Electoral College, which then decides the winner of the presidential election. No doubt Obama has calculated this decision; he's endorsing his party and the almost sure candidate for the Democratic Party for the next presidential election: Hillary Rodham Clinton. With this bold move he has managed to "hit several birds with one stone," both on the level of U.S. internal policy as well as foreign policy. Simply masterful!
I believe this is an event of remarkable historical transcendence; no doubt Obama is thinking of using these last two years to work on how he wants to be remembered by history more than anything else. No doubt, this is a slap to Republicans’ face, as they have blocked almost every single one of Obama's initiatives for reform that were the platform of his campaign, from the health care system to immigration reform. Today Obama “rights” a wrong of American foreign policy and establishes the beginning of the end of an economic embargo that, I repeat, has helped more than harmed Castro's dictatorship.
Obama makes a masterful play of international chess today, taking off the political burden of having to handle establishing diplomatic relations and heaving it on the next president of the U.S., most likely Hillary Rodham Clinton, so he can avoid being worn down by a fight with the Republicans and focus on the meat of the great super-structural reforms that make up his main goal. Additionally, Obama has made a powerful political strategy. A situation of total control of the House of Representatives and the Senate by the Republican Party gives Clinton the perfect enemy to win the election; as things stand she can easily blame the mistakes of the Obama administration more on Republicans’ “stubborn” opposition than on Obama's executive decisions.
Moreover, it seems that Obama is winning the foreign policy match between himself and Nicolás Maduro. First, at the federal level Obama authorized an increase in drilling and fracking so as to obtain more oil from asbestos bitumen, therefore raising the offer of oil in the market, which in turn lowers international prices by flooding the U.S. and Canada with this type of oil. Furthermore, he noticeably decreased American dependence on Venezuelan oil and made a political approach to Venezuela's main ally in the continent: Cuba, with all that it implies.
The Castro brothers, knowing that in the future, due to the rising price of crude oil, Venezuela won't be able to supply them with the oil they need as it has been doing lately, accepted Obama's invitation (with an dose of "hyper pragmatism"), knowing that in doing so they open a road for foreign currencies to enter the island: remittances to family members, which the Castros know will help them make up for the decrease in the Venezuelan aid. At the same time, they have the chance to access a capital market that has been to this day closed to them due to, among other things, the embargo reaching foreign companies doing business both in Cuba and the U.S. Certainly a "masterful" play by Obama and a "clever" play by the Castro brothers (made out of concern for their country).
The one who stands to lose the most here: Nicolás Maduro. It seems the Castros never consulted with him about their decision — which is why Obama's political mind deserves my every praise, as this is high-level foreign policy.
Finally, I must say that Obama understood that the Cuban-American community is not as homogeneous or unified as it once was. A large part of the second and third generation supports steps toward reconciliation with the island. Obama, being the clever politician that he is, knows that with this move he obtains Democratic support in Florida, one of the states that sends the most votes to the Electoral College, which then decides the winner of the presidential election. No doubt Obama has calculated this decision; he's endorsing his party and the almost sure candidate for the Democratic Party for the next presidential election: Hillary Rodham Clinton. With this bold move he has managed to "hit several birds with one stone," both on the level of U.S. internal policy as well as foreign policy. Simply masterful!
Insightful article showing how some in Latin America understand the U.S.