A Hesitant Obama

Published in Le Temps
(Switzerland) on 4 February 2015
by Stéphane Bussard (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Beth Holding. Edited by Emily Chick.
In order to understand Obama’s treatment of Russian politics concerning the conflict in Ukraine, all we need to do is ask ourselves how John McCain would have done it differently.

Although a firm believer in diplomacy, the American president has no option other than to increase U.S. sanctions against the Kremlin following the annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of eastern Ukraine. He convinced Europe to impose even stricter sanctions against Moscow. Yet, such measures weren’t enough to stop Vladimir Putin from openly disregarding the Minsk peace agreement, and so Washington is faced with increasing pressure to take a harder line.

Should we provide Kiev forces with defensive weaponry? If we’re looking for equal treatment, then the answer is yes. Pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have acquired heavy weapons and military equipment from Russia, despite government denials. If we were to do the same with the Ukrainian army, this could mean giving them a chance to actually defend the sovereignty of their country. It could also mean putting a stop to Putin himself, who, it is feared, may undermine the very foundations of Europe. Does such a strategy have a chance at success? It’s hard to say.

If Barack Obama seems hesitant, it’s simply because he doesn’t like war, nor does he like having to take a back seat. That is, rely on drones and air strikes, as was the case in Iraq. He has other priorities to be dealing with. In Syria, he was confronted with a similar situation: should he arm the so-called moderate rebel forces? Today, nobody can claim to have a definitive answer to this question.

If he were to opt for aggressive military reinforcement, he would be running the risk of dividing the united American-European front against Russian dictator Putin.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, advisor to former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, admits that U.S.-Russian relations could potentially turn frosty. But he remains optimistic. The Russian middle class, he predicts, will be the ones to unite western Russia, those who have no interest in a U.S.-Russian conflict, and who value former president Dmitry Medvedev’s sense of internationalism.


Pour réaliser ce qu’a été la politique russe de l’administration de Barack Obama par rapport au conflit ukrainien, il suffit de se demander ce qu’elle aurait été avec le faucon républicain John McCain à la Maison-Blanche. Le président américain, qui a toujours laissé la porte ouverte à la diplomatie, ne pouvait laisser impunies l’annexion de la Crimée et la déstabilisation de l’est de l’Ukraine par le Kremlin. Il a convaincu les Européens d’appliquer de sévères sanctions contre Moscou. De telles mesures n’ayant pas empêché Vladimir Poutine de bafouer l’accord de Minsk, les appels à durcir le ton se multiplient à Washington.

Faut-il livrer des armes défensives à Kiev? Si on applique le principe de symétrie, la réponse est positive. Les livraisons d’armements russes lourds aux séparatistes de l’est de l’Ukraine sont massives en dépit des dénis de Moscou. En faire de même avec l’armée ukrainienne, c’est donner à cette dernière une chance de défendre la souveraineté du pays. C’est freiner un maître du Kremlin dont on craint qu’il sape les fondements mêmes de l’Europe. Est-ce qu’une telle stratégie a une chance de succès? Difficile à dire.

Si Barack Obama hésite, c’est parce qu’il n’aime pas la guerre, ne la menant qu’à distance (drones, frappes aériennes en Irak). Il a d’autres priorités. En Syrie, il a été confronté à une situation semblable. Fallait-il armer les rebelles dits modérés? Personne ne peut prétendre aujourd’hui avoir la réponse définitive à une telle question.

S’il devait opter pour une aide militaire musclée, bien que défensive, Washington prendrait néanmoins un risque: celui de diviser le front uni américano-européen contre l’autocrate Poutine.

Ancien conseiller du président Jimmy Carter, Zbigniew Brzezinski admet que les relations entre Moscou et Washington vont sans doute subir un gros coup de froid. Mais il reste optimiste. Ce qui rapprochera la Russie de l’Occident, prédit-il, c’est la classe moyenne russe qui n’a aucun intérêt à une conflagration russo-américaine et qui appréciait l’internationalisme de l’ex-président Dmitri Medvedev.
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