Of Course, the Dictator Assad No Longer Persona Non Grata

Published in Diário de Notícias
(Portugal) on 16 March 2015
by LEONÍDIO PAULO FERREIRA (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Bryce Bray. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
It was easy to find reasons to overthrow Bashar al-Assad: The regime killed the opposition, relied on a religious minority for support, and had become a monarchy disguised as a republic. Four years after the start of the rebellion, the United States concedes that it’s necessary to hold talks with the Syrian leader: from Dictator Assad to President Assad, just in case John Kerry’s words confirm a change in American strategy. What has changed since 2011? The rise of the Islamic State, Assad’s ability to survive, and, you might say, disillusionment with the "Arab spring."

Kerry admitted to holding talks with the Syrians in a CBS interview in Egypt. Now, this is a country that saw its dictator Hosni Mubarak overthrown and imprisoned, then elected a president, overthrew him, and once again, put a general into power, albeit out of uniform. Worse off are two other countries that also took advantage of the winds of the "Arab spring." One is Libya, which, after the death of Moammar Gadhafi, lives in a climate of civil war. The other, Yemen, with the negotiation of Ali Saleh’s departure, has remained plagued by rebellion.

The exception was Tunisia alone, which was the leader, freeing itself of the dictator Ben Ali, now exiled in Saudi Arabia. However, the little country from the Maghreb has always shown itself to be the most prepared for democracy, not least because of its secular tradition, freedom for females, and even economic development.

Returning to Assad, who has been in power since 2000, he disappointed when he failed to come through with promises of transparency, but it is also true that, supported by the Alawites, Christians and Druze, and by the Sunni elite of Damascus and Aleppo, he appeared to have the country under control. And, as can be seen in a photo of a dinner in 2009 with then Sen. Kerry, he was very much worthy of courtship.

From one moment to the next, Assad was abandoned by the West, but above all by the [Persian] Gulf and Turkish monarchies, which became the financiers of the rebels, some rebel groups being obvious extensions of al-Qaida, as in the case of the al-Nusra Front.

To resist, Assad has only been able to count on Russia, which protected him in the United Nations and on Iran, until last year when the fear caused by the Islamic State group led the United States to attack jihadi bases in Syria as well as in Iraq, with previous communications about flights to the Syrians. Even controlling just part of the territory, it has become evident that imagining a Syria without Assad is utopian, not a working scenario.

In his last book, Henry Kissinger discusses the eternal U.S. dilemma between following its ideals and conducting realpolitik. When he overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003, George W. Bush was not aware of the chaos he was creating in Iraq. The idealist Barack Obama, who is relying on Kerry to make his mark on the Middle East (from the Israeli-Arab dossier to nuclear Iran), has perhaps understood that reality is complicated.


Foi fácil encontrar razões para o derrube de Bachar al Assad: o regime matava opositores, apoiava-se numa minoria religiosa e tinha-se transformado numa monarquia disfarçada de república. Passados quatro anos sobre o início da revolta, os Estados Unidos admitem que é preciso falar com o líder sírio. De ditador Assad a presidente Assad, caso as palavras de John Kerry confirmem uma mudança de estratégia americana. O que mudou desde março de 2011? A ascensão do Estado Islâmico, a capacidade de sobrevivência de Assad e, diga-se, a desilusão com a Primavera Árabe.
Kerry admitiu dialogar com os sírios numa entrevista à CBS no Egito. Ora, aqui está um país que viu o seu ditador, Hosni Mubarak, ser derrubado e preso, para depois eleger um presidente, derrubá-lo, e voltar a pôr no poder um general, ainda que sem farda. Pior estão dois outros países que também aproveitaram os ventos da Primavera Árabe , essa Líbia que depois da morte de Muammar Kadhafi vive em clima de guerra civil e esse Iémen que, negociada a saída de Ali Saleh, se manteve assolado por rebeliões.
Exceção só a Tunísia, que foi pioneira em livrar-se do ditador, um Ben Ali hoje exilado na Arábia Saudita. Mas o pequeno país do Magrebe sempre se mostrou o mais preparado para ser uma democracia, mais não fosse pela tradição laica, pela emancipação feminina e até pelo desenvolvimento económico.
Voltando a Assad, no poder desde 2000, este desiludiu quando falhou as promessas de abertura, mas também é verdade que, apoiado pelos alauitas, pelos cristãos e drusos e pela elite sunita de Damasco e Aleppo, parecia ter o país controlado. E era bastante frequentável, como mostra a foto de um jantar em Damasco em 2009 com Kerry, então senador.
De um momento para o outro foi abandonado pelo Ocidente, mas sobretudo pelas monarquias do Golfo e Turquia, que se transformaram nos financiadores dos rebeldes, alguns, caso da Frente al-Nusra, óbvias extensões da Al-Qaeda.
Para resistir, Assad só pôde contar com a Rússia, que o protegeu na ONU, e com o Irão. Até que desde o ano passado, o susto causado pelo Estado Islâmico levou os Estados Unidos a atacar as bases jihadistas tanto na Síria como no Iraque. Com comunicação prévia de voos aos sírios. E mesmo controlando só parte do território, passou a ser evidente que imaginar a Síria sem Assad é utopia, não um cenário de trabalho.
No seu último livro, Henry Kissinger fala do eterno dilema dos Estados Unidos entre seguir os seus ideais ou fazer realpolitik. Quando derrubou Saddam Hussein, em 2003, Bush filho não percebeu que estava a criar o caos no Iraque. O idealista Barack Obama, que aposta em Kerry para deixar legado no Médio Oriente (do dossier israelo-árabe ao nuclear iraniano), talvez tenha entendido que a realidade é dura.
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