The preliminary deal reached last Thursday between Washington and Tehran represents an initial step on the path to contain Iran’s nuclear program, and thus, to prevent that nation from eventually developing an atomic weapon. The actual terms of the agreement will not be fully known until June 30, when the final version of the text will be signed. Nonetheless, the fact that the Iranian regime has agreed to reduce the scope of its nuclear program, as well as to allow regular visits from United Nations inspectors represents a positive sign.
The United States, the European Union and the United Nations will now have to tweak, alongside Tehran, the technical details of the agreement in order to avoid possible misinterpretations that may, in the long term, render the deal null. If in exchange for the termination of Western economic sanctions, Iran truly keeps its promise to reduce its centrifuges by 75 percent and to cap its uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent (lower than the requirement to fabricate a bomb), this will all have entailed significant progress.
The Iranian regime’s historical antecedents nurture reasonable skepticism. Not only did it develop a secret nuclear program despite having signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, but in the midst of negotiations taking place in November 2013, it continued its uranium enrichment plan, reaching levels close to those required for the development of a nuclear weapon. For these reasons, it is crucial that the final document stipulate clearly the scope and reach of international inspectors’ duties in order to guarantee compliance with the agreement.
The document that was signed in Switzerland does not come close to meeting Barack Obama’s initial stipulations for reaching a deal with Iran, which entailed the total closure of Iran’s nuclear program. For this reason, Washington’s task is now to convince its allies in the Middle East — particularly Israel and Saudi Arabia, which oppose any type of accord — that the current deal will promote peace.
EL ACUERDO preliminar alcanzado el jueves pasado entre Washington y Teherán es un primer paso en el camino por contener el programa nuclear iraní e impedir que ese país pueda eventualmente desarrollar una bomba atómica. Los términos reales del pacto sólo se conocerán el 30 de junio, cuando se firme el texto definitivo. Sin embargo, es una señal positiva que el régimen iraní haya aceptado reducir los alcances de su programa nuclear y permita las visitas regulares de inspectores de Naciones Unidas.
Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea y Naciones Unidas deben afinar ahora con Teherán los detalles técnicos del acuerdo para no dar pie a eventuales interpretaciones que, a la larga, terminen convirtiendo el documento en algo estéril. Si efectivamente Irán cumple con su compromiso de reducir en un 75% sus centrífugas y evitar que el enriquecimiento de uranio supere el 3,67% (menor al nivel requerido para fabricar una bomba), a cambio del levantamiento de las sanciones económicas de Occidente, será un avance importante.
El historial del régimen iraní motiva un razonable escepticismo. No sólo llevó a cabo un programa nuclear secreto pese a firmar el Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear, sino que en medio de las negociaciones en noviembre de 2013, siguió adelante con su plan de enriquecimiento de uranio hasta un nivel cercano al requerido para la fabricación de una bomba nuclear. Por ello, es clave que el documento final deje en claro las facultades y los alcances de la labor de los inspectores internacionales para velar por el cumplimiento del pacto.
El texto firmado en Suiza está lejos de cumplir con las condiciones iniciales de Barack Obama para llegar a un acuerdo con Irán y que contemplaban el cierre completo de su programa nuclear. Por ello, el desafío de Washington es convencer a sus aliados en Medio Oriente, en especial a Israel y Arabia Saudita -que se oponen a cualquier acuerdo- que se trata de un pacto que favorecerá la paz.
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