TPP Implementation Relies Heavily on US Congress

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 25 May 2015
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Maisha Kuniyuki. Edited by Joanna Kenney.
The fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership relies heavily on the decision of U.S. Congress. What will it decide? Congress should be aware of its great responsibility and quickly pass a bill promoting the advancement of TPP negotiations.

Negotiations between the 12 participating Pacific Rim countries are currently at a standstill. The Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) bill, which would give President Obama the authority to fast track the trade pact, has been delayed due to congressional recess. And although the Senate finally passed the bill last week, the House of Representatives has yet to make its decision.

If the TPA bill passes, Congress will not be able to amend the negotiated trade agreements. Congress will only be able to either accept or reject the trade pact in its entirety. If this bill does not pass, there are fears that U.S. amendments to TPP terms will return negotiations to step one. For this reason, the countries participating in negotiations commonly agree that that the TPA bill should be passed.

Behind the bill’s delay is a spreading skepticism toward free trade among U.S. Congress members. The belief that free trade will take away U.S. jobs and impact the economy has spread not only to the strongly protectionist Democratic Party, but also to some members of the Republican Party. Members of Congress from states with many manufacturing bases are opposed to the repeal of taxes on automobile parts.

As the value of the dollar rises, many more are beginning to believe that measures curbing foreign exchange operations should be incorporated into the bill. Although the bill that passed through the Senate settled on weak government restrictions, the House of Representatives might make changes and submit a different bill.

The TPP may be in danger if the TPA bill is delayed because of adjustments from the Senate and the House. As next fall’s presidential election draws closer, it is not unlikely that anti-free trade feelings could increase even more as the U.S. political season draws near.

Furthermore, there are many difficult issues to discuss during TPP negotiations, such as the unification of the protection period for copyrights and medical data. In order to advance the negotiations, Japan must also take up a position of leadership.

The acceleration of trade and investments and the spread of high quality regulations throughout Asia and the Pacific will promote economic prosperity in the area. A critical moment is approaching, and it will decide whether the TPP will be implemented and become a driving force behind this.


TPP実現へ重大な責任を負う米議会

 米国の議会がどんな決定を下すのか。それによって、環太平洋経済連携協定(TPP)の命運が大きく左右される状況になってきた。米議会は責任の重さを自覚し、交渉の推進を促す法案を速やかに成立させるべきだ。

 環太平洋地域の12カ国が参加するTPP交渉は、いま足踏みした形になっている。米大統領に貿易促進権限(TPA)を与える法案の成立が遅れ、閣僚会合が事実上開けなくなっているからだ。米上院は先週末にようやく法案を可決したものの、下院の審議の行方はなお不透明だ。

 TPA法案が成立すれば、米議会は自由貿易交渉で合意した内容を修正できなくなり、合意案を一括で承認するか拒否するかの二者択一しかできなくなる。これが通らないと、合意後に米国から修正案が出され、交渉が振り出しに戻ってしまう恐れがある。このため、交渉合意の大前提はTPA法案の成立というのが交渉参加国にとっての共通理解になっている。

 法案成立が遅れている背景には米議員の間で自由貿易への懐疑論が広がっていることがある。自由貿易で米国の雇用が奪われ、経済も打撃を受けるとの考え方が、保護主義的な勢力が強い民主党だけでなく、共和党の一部議員にまで広がっている。製造拠点が多い州から選ばれた議員は自動車部品の関税撤廃などに反対している。

 ドル相場が上昇するなかで、外国による「為替操作」に歯止めをかける内容を法案に盛り込むべきだとの声も強まっている。成立した上院の法案は、政府に対する拘束力が弱い内容で落ち着いたが、下院はこれと異なる法案が提出される可能性もある。

 上下院の調整などでTPA法の成立に手間取れば、TPPの実現が危うくなる恐れもある。米国は来年秋の大統領選挙へ向けて「政治の季節」を迎えようとしており、自由貿易に反対するムードが一段と強まりかねない。

 TPP交渉は著作権や医薬品のデータの保護期間の統一など、なお難航している分野が少なくない。米国だけでなく、日本も交渉の前進に向けて指導力を発揮していかなければならない。

 アジア・太平洋で貿易や投資が加速し、質の高いルールが行き渡ることは、地域の経済的な繁栄を促す。その推進力になるTPPが実現するかどうか、大きな正念場を迎えつつある。
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