The ‘Silent Majority’ Is the Foundation of US-China Relations

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 16 June 2015
by Wang Dong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
A short time ago, prominent U.S. expert on Chinese affairs David Lampton expressed concern over the state of U.S.-China relations, stating that he believes the relationship is approaching a “tipping point.”

His opinion is characteristic of the growing pessimism that has enshrouded U.S.-China relations over the past few years among some think tanks and the media. Interestingly, however, according to a survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and published on June 2, 67 percent of Americans support “friendly cooperation and engagement with China” in the face of its rising strength.

Support for this is even higher among the Democratic and Republican leadership, standing at 87 percent and 78 percent respectively. Conversely, only 29 percent of Americans favor a policy course that would “limit” China's growth, a proportion that falls even further to 22 percent and 25 percent among Democratic and Republic leaders.

This phenomenon is a reflection of the cognitive gap that exists in the views about U.S.-China relations between the U.S. media and think tanks on one side, and the American people and policymakers on the other. On a recent trip to the United States where I participated in a U.S.-China Strategic Dialogue at the Brookings Institution and had exchanges with the U.S. National Security Council, State Department and Defense Department officials, I was left with much the same impression as shown in the aforementioned results.

This suggests that many within the U.S. media and policy circles may place too strong a focus upon the drama of past differences between the United States and China, while ignoring the sturdy societal groundwork underlying U.S.-China relations. At the same time, there also exist false perceptions and emotionally colored views between the two nations with regard to each other’s intentions. Despite the United States' somewhat heightened misgivings about China in recent years and the subsequent increase in its operations for strategic containment and defense, the U.S. strategy toward China on the whole is still one of hedging its bets. That the two nations' common interests outweigh their differences has not fundamentally changed. We must have more strategic conviction, and even as we resolutely safeguard our national interests, we must come to see a broader view of U.S.-China relations. We must not simply respond in the moment, but must possess greater strategic patience, augment strategic communication and exchange, avoid misreading the other side within this game of nations and bolster our capability to guide and shape U.S. behavior toward peaceful ends.

In the opinion of this author, as we observe and analyze U.S.-China relations, we cannot overlook the “silent majority.” As we direct our gaze down toward the local, grass-roots levels within each nation, we are better able to see the robust societal base underlying U.S.-China relations, a base that grows stauncher with each passing day. From trade, science and technology, to education and culture, interpersonal exchange between the United States and China is growing ever deeper, evidence of converging interests and greater mutual reliance between the two in this globalized age. The annual trade volume between the United States and China now stands in excess of $550 billion, and Chinese investment in the United States is nearing $50 billion. With the environment, clean energy, agriculture and medical technology as representative fields, the two nations have begun close cooperation and innovation. From 2009 to 2014, more than 100,000 U.S. students came to China, and there are now more than 270,000 Chinese students studying in the United States, comprising one-third of its entire contingent of foreign students. Every day, more than 10,000 people traverse the Pacific between the twin coasts of the United States and China, with the number of trips prospectively breaking 5 million in 2015. In one respect, the U.S.-China cultural exchange can be likened to a great net bearing the enormous weight of U.S.-China relations, or perhaps is more similar to the very air itself, omnipresent and breathing life into the relationship between the two powers.

The “silent majority” is fulfilling the new model of great power relations between the United States and China. They vote with their feet, walking a new path of mutual respect and mutual benefit in place of conflict and antagonism. Their voices may rarely be projected in media headlines, but as observers of U.S.-China relations, it is crucial that we not ignore them. The billions of Americans and Chinese and the richly abundant interpersonal exchanges between them will be the font of our optimism for and belief in the future development of U.S.-China relations.

The author is executive deputy director of Beijing University's Institute for China-U.S. People to People Exchange.


  美国知名中国问题专家兰普顿前不久表达了他对中美关系的忧虑,认为中美关系正在接近“临界点”。他的观点代表了近年在美国媒体、智库不断上升的对中美关系的悲观看法。有意思的是,根据芝加哥全球事务理事会6月2日发布的民意调查显示,面对崛起的中国,67%的美国民众主张与中国进行“友好合作和接触”,在民主党、共和党领袖中,持这一主张的比例更高,分别达到87%和78%。相反,只有29%的美国民众主张应主动“制约”中国实力的增长,在民主党、共和党领袖中,这一比例则分别下降到22%和25%。

  这一现象反映出美国媒体、智库圈同美国民众、决策者在看待中美关系上存在认知鸿沟。笔者近期访美,参加了与美国布鲁金斯学会的中美战略对话,也与美国国家安全委员会、国务院、国防部的官员进行了交流,得出了与上述结论一致的印象。

  这表明不少美国媒体和政策界人士可能过于关注当前中美分歧的戏剧性一面,而忽视了中美关系更牢固的社会基础。同时,中美也存在对彼此意图的错误知觉和情绪性认知。尽管近年来美国对华战略疑虑有所上升,战略上牵制、防范等动作也有所增加,但美国对华战略总体上仍属于对冲战略。中美共同利益大于分歧的基本格局并没有发生根本变化。我们要更有战略定力,在坚决维护国家利益的同时,要看到中美关系更大的图景,不为一时一事所动,要更有战略耐心,加强战略沟通与交流,避免中美博弈中的误判,提高我引导、塑造美国偏好和行为的能力。

  笔者认为,观察和思考中美关系不能忽视“沉默的大多数”。如果我们的眼睛越向下,越往两国地方和基层看,就越能看到中美关系的社会基础非常深厚,而且每天都在不断增长。从经贸、科技、教育、文化领域,中美各种人文交流日益频繁深入,见证着全球化时代中美不断增强的利益交融与相互依存关系。中美年度贸易额超过5500亿美元,中国对美投资已近500亿美元。在以环境、清洁能源、农业、卫生科技为代表的一系列领域,中美双方展开了深度合作与创新。2009年-2014年间,有超过10万美国留学生来华,而现在有超过27万中国学生在美国留学,占美国全部外国留学生人数的1/3。中美之间每天上万人往来于太平洋两岸,2015年两国人员往来有望突破500万人次。从一个角度来讲,中美人文交流就像是一张巨大的网,承载着中美关系的厚重,更像是无所不在的空气,维系着中美关系的“生存”。

  “沉默的大多数”是中美新型大国关系的践行者。他们用脚投票,走出了不冲突、不对抗,相互尊重,互利共赢的中美新型大国之路。他们的声音很多时候未必能占据媒体头版,但作为中美关系的观察家,我们绝不应忽视他们。中美千千万万民众及其丰富实践构成的中美人文交流,是我们对中美关系发展未来保持乐观与信心的源泉。

(作者是北京大学中美人文交流研究基地执行副主任)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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