The New Cold War Doomsday Shroud Has Fallen

Published in
(Hong Kong) on July 2nd, 2015
by Bin Sai Man (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chase Coulson. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The military conflict in eastern Ukraine will just not subside; Russian-American relations have hit a new low. Meanwhile, talk of a Cold War revival has been spreading like a desert blaze on a blustery day. During the Cold War, the arms race between America and the Soviet Union yielded a stockpile of enough nuclear firepower to obliterate the entire world, and now, due to developments in the Ukraine situation, the two countries are like fire and ice again. Cooperation in nuclear arms reduction and proactivity in reforming each country’s triggering mechanism policies are not what they used to be. Nuclear war now seems to be right at our very doorstep, making the whole situation indistinguishable from that of the Cold War at its zenith.

Global Zero, a group of experts made up of retired high-ranking military officers from nuclear-armed countries pushing for nuclear disarmament, has drafted a report calling for the elimination of high-tech nuclear weaponry that can be launched instantly, with the aim of ending the threat of cyber attacks accidentally launching nuclear warheads.

Cyber attacks on the Rise

Former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and retired four-star Gen. James Cartwright concurred wholeheartedly with a proposal stressing that a great many of Russian and American nuclear warheads built between the 1950s and the 1980s have faulty alert systems. Beyond that, with the ever-increasing number and sophistication of online hacks, in theory it is possible for the control system to be cracked. Not long ago, the National Nuclear Security Administration, part of the United States Department of Energy, agreed tacitly with a senator’s sentiment that it is impossible to rule out the possibility of nuclear control systems being hacked into.

Global Zero co-founder Bruce Blair stated that the most serious incident of recent times occurred in 1979. At the time, national security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski sent a telegram to President Carter, claiming that a Soviet nuclear strike had been detected by the reporting system, but it was ultimately found to have been caused erroneously by a computer chip glitch.

Similar incidents occurred in the former Soviet Union. In 1983, Soviet-made satellites detected American intercontinental ballistic missiles headed for Soviet territory. A Russian high official was doubtful and notified his superior that it was a false alarm on the grounds that if America were to really launch an attack, it would never consist of just five missiles. After the incident, it was proven the official made the correct call, as solar rays in the high stratosphere had misled the early warning system.

The media are rife with scandal involving negligence on the part of members of the U.S. nuclear forces, which is in itself a reflection of America’s seemingly daily reduction in spending on nuclear security. The situation in Russia is virtually identical. It’s like a zero sum game. The destructive power and degree of complexity of cyber attacks are growing, while Russia and the U.S. have not taken any proactive steps to increase nuclear security. Yet most of the nuclear weapons have been set continuously to high alert without change, because to assert that a nuclear warhead could be set off by mistake is definitely not reds-under-the-beds talk. Gen. Cartwright has strongly advocated for elongating the activation time for nuclear armaments, while President Obama, who won the Nobel Peace Prize based on his vision of a world without nuclear weapons, has been utterly mute on the subject. Could this be a case of Lord Ye's love of dragons?*

Russian-U.S. relations are deadlocked due to the Ukraine situation, resulting in a vicious cycle of playing tit for tat. America has been clicking its tongue and wagging a hoity-toity finger at Russia claiming it has broken the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty by threatening the Eurozone with short-range missiles, while Russia may, perhaps, actually be impelled to treat nuclear deployment as a real retaliatory threat. Having lowered precautionary standards to the nth degree already, it’s like Obama and Putin are locked in a mad game of “ride the wild tiger,” but whoever dismounts is a chicken, literally forcing them to set their white knuckles squarely atop the red button while the rest of the world plays with nuclear fire and brimstone right along with them.

*Editor’s note: This is a reference to the Chinese proverb meaning one professes love for something he fears.



2015年7月2日 (四)

美俄核戰陰霾不散


烏克蘭東部軍事衝突無從平息,美俄關係跌入谷底,冷戰死灰復燃之說不脛而走。冷戰期間,美蘇進行核軍備競賽,兩國擁有的核武足以毀滅地球,如今美俄因烏國問題勢成水火,兩國攜手裁減核武、改革發射核武機制之動力更不如前,核戰一觸即發之局面,與冷戰最嚴峻時期相比無甚分別。

推動裁減核武的專家小組Global Zero,成員包括美俄和多個核武國家之退役軍方高層,組織早前發表報告,呼籲解除可在極短時間內發射核武之高度戒備狀態,以消弭網絡攻擊意外觸發核戰之威脅。
網絡攻擊 日新月異

退役美軍四星上將卡特賴特,曾擔任美國參謀長聯席會議副主席,他對報告提議深表認同,強調美俄的核軍備是上世紀五十至八十年代之產物,不少系統有警報誤鳴問題,又認為日新月異的網絡攻擊,理論上可攻破核武操控系統。不久前,隸屬美國能源部的美國國家核安全局向國會參院一個委員會默認,無法排除核武操控系統被入侵之可能。

Global Zero共同創辦人布魯士.布萊爾稱,近代最嚴重之事故,要數一九七九年那次,當時美國國家安全顧問布熱津斯基致電總統卡特,報告系統探測到蘇聯核導彈來襲,最後查明電腦晶片故障致誤鳴。

前蘇聯也發生過類似事件,一九八三年,蘇聯人造衞星偵測到美國洲際彈道導彈射向蘇聯本土,一名蘇聯高官表示懷疑,通報上級這是警報誤鳴,理由是美國若動真格攻蘇,發射的導彈肯定不止五枚,事後證明該官員判斷正確,預警系統被雲層反射的太陽光線誤導。

美軍核部隊成員玩忽職守醜聞不絕,反映美國維護核武安全之經費日削月割,俄國情況大同小異。此消彼長,網絡攻擊破壞力與複雜程度有增無減,美俄未見積極提升核武防護措施,將大部分核武維持在高度戒備狀態,因誤會引發核戰絕非危言聳聽。卡特賴特力倡延長啟動核武所需之時間,靠無核世界主張贏得諾貝爾和平獎的奧巴馬無甚表示,葉公好龍乎?

美俄因烏克蘭問題鬧僵,形成你硬我更硬之惡性循環。美方咄咄相逼,聲稱俄方違反《中導條約》,威脅在歐部署中短程導彈,或迫使俄方將核武部署當成反制手段。把核武戒備水平降低理據再充分,奧巴馬與普京騎虎難下,硬着頭皮與計時炸彈為伴,焗全球一同玩火。

卞世聞
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