What Does the Trump Effect Tell Us?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 19 August 2015
by Wu Zhenglong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yuzhi Yang. Edited by Alison Lacey.
On Aug. 6, the American Republican presidential candidates’ first televised debate made real estate mogul Donald Trump the focus of everyone’s attention. The latest polls showed that while Trump’s uninhibited speech during the debate brought a lot of controversy, he was still at the top of the list, with 25 percent of voter support.

This mogul not only played American politics, he also brought better ratings to the debate than the NBA finals, which is rare in American presidential politics. This author will refer to it as the “Trump Effect.” Any debate or election event with his attendance always becomes the focus of the media and gets branded with the Trump Effect.

Trump Effect #1: politics as entertainment. Many American media outlets called the debate a Trump reality show. His one-liners made the audience laugh nonstop. Trump first refused not to run as an independent if he lost the Republican primaries, receiving boos from the audience. Then he called American leaders and politicians “stupid,” and said he had given money to every candidate on stage, as well as the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton.

Trump was not answering the debate questions so much as he was delivering one-liners, making the election event funny, entertaining and dramatic. When he was questioned about immigration, he said there needed to be a wall between the U.S. and Mexico, and then an attractive gate built in the wall so that people can come in legally.

Every one of his appearances has been extraordinary. When he announced his presidential campaign, he “dropped from the sky” via a skyscraper’s elevator. When he went to the Iowa State Fair, he arrived in a private helicopter, adding endless entertainment to every event.

Trump Effect #2: Trump as a rebel. Unlike traditional politicians, his role as an “outsider” makes him unafraid of political taboos. He has fiercely criticized American immigration policy, called politicians incompetent and failures, and satirized the fact that America is obsessed with being politically correct. He said America was in big trouble, that it was losing to everybody, and that politicians didn’t fix anything. He announced that he had no time for being “politically correct.”

Trump Effect #3: Trump as a gossip hub. Trump is known for flashing his wealth and has been the subject of a lot of gossip. He was also once considered the most obnoxious mogul in America. Fox news anchor Megyn Kelly was one of the debate hosts. Trump hinted after the debate that she was stern to him because she was menstruating. This comment made a prominent conservative forum retract its invitation to Trump to attend its Atlanta event. Trump defended himself during a CNN phone interview, claiming that only someone sick would think this way. In spite of this, Trump refused to apologize, and reiterated his criticisms of Kelly, claiming she was unfair in her questioning of him.

Trump Effect #4: empty speeches. The televised debate gave the core candidates a platform to showcase their governing philosophies and personal talents to the public, and could greatly influence the election results. Trump was successful in promoting himself during the first debate, but he lacked ideas about governing. Behind all the fanfare and glamour is a void of national policy. Personal attacks have replaced serious policy debates. This fully illustrates how the American democratic system has deteriorated. Some media outlets have pointed out that while Trump swore he would revive America, how he would do so remains a mystery.

As a billionaire, it’s no surprise that Trump could be so sensational in the early stage of the Republican primaries. This only proves how the American political system has failed. As ex-President Carter has said, “Now it’s just an oligarchy, with unlimited political bribery being the essence of getting the nominations for president or to elect the president. [...] So now we’ve just seen a complete subversion of our political system as a payoff to major contributors, who want and expect and sometimes get favors for themselves after the election’s over.” The Trump effect is the best footnote for the money-driven American political system.

On the other hand, the Trump Effect shows just how disappointed the American public is with politics. Many Americans are unhappy with their political and economic system. They want change, and their hope lies with this political “outsider” for now.

It is hard to predict how long the Trump Effect will last. If he cannot create new excitement for the voters, his effect may be at an end.

The author is an ex-ambassador, a senior researcher at the Peace Development Fund for China Foundation for International Studies, and a special commentator for huanqiu.com.


6日,美国共和党总统竞选人举行首场电视辩论,房地产大亨特朗普迅速成为焦点。最新一份美国民调显示,虽然特朗普在辩论中口无遮拦引发激烈的争议,但他依然稳居共和党阵营首位,获得25%民意支持率。

  这位大亨不但消遣了美国政治,同时还为此次辩论带来超过NBA总决赛的收视率。这种现象在美国总统竞选史上实属罕见,笔者权且将其称作为特朗普现象。此次辩论以及其他竞选活动大凡有他参加,无不成为媒体关注的中心,并打上了特朗普现象的烙印。

  烙印之一娱乐化。多家美国媒体概括整场辩论堪称一场“特朗普真人秀”。特朗普口吐莲花,笑 料不绝。他一开始就拒绝承诺,不会在共和党初选落选后以独立人士身份参选,结果引起观众喝倒彩及嘘声一片。他再暴猛料,形容美国领导人和政治人物为“蠢 货”,并称自己曾捐钱给台上所有候选人和民主党候选人希拉里。

  特朗普的所答非所问,等于抖了不少包袱,让大选变得好笑好玩,富有戏剧化。在回答必答题移民问题时,他我行我素地答道,需要在美墨之间建一座墙,建好墙后再建一个漂亮的大门,这样人们就可以合法进入美国了。

  此外,他的每一次出场都与众不同。在宣布参选的时候,他从高楼的电梯上“从天而降”,而出席艾奥瓦州的农业展览时,特朗普以更吸引眼球的方式乘坐私人直升机来到会场。搞笑达到无以复加的程度。

  烙印之二反叛性。不同于传统政客,代表“局外人”形象的特朗普敢于大胆触碰政治禁 忌。他痛批美国移民政策,斥骂美国政客“无能”“失败”,揶揄美国的问题在于总是搞“政治正确”。他说,美国处在大麻烦之中,我们正在输给所有人,政治家 却无法解决问题,他作为竞选人没有时间搞“政治正确”。

  烙印之三八卦。特朗普以招摇炫富著称,成为八卦杂志的常客,也一度让他成为美国 “最讨人嫌的富翁”。福克斯新闻网女主播凯利是辩论提问者之一。特朗普事后受访时似暗示她因为月经来了,所以对他态度严厉。这番话立即导致在亚特兰大举行 的重要保守派论坛撤回对他的邀请。特朗普在接受CNN的电话采访时还为自已辩护,称只有有病的人才会那么想。尽管如此,特朗普不愿道歉,且重提他对凯利的 批评,再次指责她在辩论时提问不公平。

  烙印之四空洞化。电视辩论为核心竞选人提供了一个向公众展示自己执政理念的个人才 华的平台,对选举结果影响重大。然而,虽然特朗普在首场辩论中自我炒作成功,但执政理念乏善可陈。浮华热闹的背后是治理国家政策的空缺,相互攻击代替严肃 的政策辩论,这充分说明美国民主制度的堕落。有媒体指出,特朗普虽信誓旦旦要复兴美国,但具体如何复兴仍是个谜。

  作为亿万富翁,特朗普在共和党初选阶段呼风唤雨,不足为奇。这种现象产生凸现美国 政治制度失灵。正如美国前总统卡特指出,“现在,美国只有寡头政治,无限制的政治贿赂成为提名总统候选人或当选总统的主要影响因素。所以,现在我们的政治 体系已经遭到颠覆,它只是用来为主要的献金者提供回报。”特朗普现象是美国金钱政治的最好注脚。


  另一方面,特朗普现象也是美国民众对政治失望的一种宣泄。不少美国民众对美国政治和经济体制不满,期盼改变现状,于是暂时把希望寄托在了政坛主流之外的“局外人”。

  特朗普现象能持续多久,一时还不好说。如果他不能为选民制造新的兴奋点,特朗普现象或将就寿终正寝了。(作者是前驻外大使,现任中国国际问题研究基金会高级研究员;环球网特约评论员)
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