Can Russia’s Gambit Force a Stalemate with the United States?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 9 October 2015
by Feng Yujun (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Rachel Pott.
Since Sept. 30, Russia has been pushing forward with a large-scale assault on Islamic State forces within Syria. Why is Russia mobilizing its troops so heavily in Syria?

Despite skepticism from the West toward Russia's assertion that it is attacking the Islamic State group, I believe Russia is, to a great degree, planning such a course. This view emerged not only out of the knowledge that Russia has suffered greatly from terrorism and has firsthand experience with two bloody wars in Chechnya, but more crucially, because there are currently over 7,000 Russian citizens fighting alongside the Islamic State group in Syria and Iraq. If allowed to return, dangerous elements could easily take root and fester within the heart of Russia.

Of course, this is not to suggest that Russia's goals are so simple. In addition to air strikes on locations seized by Islamic State forces, Russian military targets have been somewhat more heavily focused on the Syrian opposition’s front lines, which have been stifling government troops. This reveals Russia’s aim to prop up Bashar Assad's regime, and, by doing so, maintain Russia's strategic presence in Syria and the Middle East.

From a military and security perspective, a key objective of Russian military operations within Syria is to protect the Russian naval technology center at Tartus and the air base in Latakia. As many well know, Russia has long sought supremacy over the waters of the Black Sea and access to, as well as a foothold in, the Mediterranean. Especially following the Crimean crisis, Russia will treat its bases in Syria as a forward strategic fulcrum in the Mediterranean for its Black Sea Fleet, as Russia indeed believes these bases are necessary to counterbalance NATO "containment" efforts.

Russia's calculus is clearly not limited to this. According to Russia, ever since the Iraq War, the U.S.’s "greater Middle East strategy" has encompassed a string of missteps. As the United States accelerates the pace of its withdrawal from the Middle East, in favor of a pivot to Asia, a power vacuum – not seen since the close of the Cold War – has appeared. If Russia is able to move in quickly, filling the gap will move it a long way toward restoring its former influence within the region and will win it a strategic piece on the board, matched with the United States. Perhaps even more significantly, such actions would to a large extent help the Russian bear reawaken its long-dormant sense of pride as a great power.

It is also important to note that, for three centuries, the hallmark of Russian diplomacy has been misdirection. Now, Russia is using a simultaneous "show of force," through military action in Syria and an "impression of weakness" in implementing the Minsk II agreement, to extract itself from the quagmire of the Ukraine crisis and is making a play to force a stalemate with the United States through a strategic presence in Syria.

Foreign affairs are an extension of internal politics and air strikes in Syria are linked to complex political and economic intricacies within Russia. Under heavy pressure from Western sanctions and falling oil prices, the Russian economy has entered into a recession that will likely continue into the next year and result in adverse political and societal effects. According to Russian strategists, air strikes in Syria could force the Saudis to increase their assistance to the Syrian opposition, subsequently causing enough financial pressure to induce a change in their policy of maintaining [oil] production targets to depress prices and seize a greater market share. But, in addition, they could increase Iran's confidence in supporting the Assad regime, thereby lowering the competitiveness of adversaries who have re-emerged in the international energy market with the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue. This geopolitical "uncertainty" in the Middle East would prop up international oil prices, solving one pressing concern for Russia. Dispatching troops to Syria to "heroically" push back against the United States and NATO may also serve to fire up the Russian people and lend a boost to [Vladimir Putin's] approval ratings.

In sum, these actions by Russia have not only been taken to simply assist Assad in reclaiming lost territory, as a mere effort to sweep out the Islamic State group or as part of a desire to engage in a "duel to the death" with the United States and NATO. Their focus is on advancing on one front while retreating on another, using both a carrot and a stick and killing two birds with one stone, all as part of a meticulously laid-out plan to win a compromise with a fight. But while people may formulate plans, their success in practice is the sole dominion of the heavens. Whether or not Russia's gambit will go as hoped will depend upon not only Russia's eye for strategy, but on its strength as a nation, the measures undertaken by the West to counter Russia's every move and the myriad contests being played out by forces throughout the Middle East and Syria.

The author is a research fellow at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.


  自9月30日以来,俄罗斯开始对叙利亚境内的IS武装进行大规模打击。俄罗斯究竟为何在叙利亚“大动干戈”呢?
  尽管西方对俄罗斯打击“伊斯兰国”的说辞倍加置疑,但我认为俄罗斯在很大程度上有这方面考虑。这不仅是由于俄多年来深受恐怖主义之害并经历过两次血淋淋的车臣战争,更重要的是目前有7000多名俄罗斯公民参加了IS并在叙利亚和伊拉克作战,这股祸水如果回流,无疑将成俄心腹大患。
  当然这不意味着俄罗斯的目的就如此单纯。除空袭IS武装盘踞的地点,俄军打击目标更多集中在叙利亚反政府武装对政府军形成压制的前沿地带。这反映出俄罗斯要力挺巴沙尔政权,从而维系俄罗斯在叙利亚和中东地区的战略存在。
  就军事安全角度而言,俄罗斯在叙军事行动的重要目标就是力保其在塔尔图斯的海军技术中心和 拉塔基亚的空军基地。众所周知,寻求在黑海的海上优势并获取通往地中海的通道和立足点是俄罗斯的不懈追求。特别是在克里米亚危机之后,将在叙利亚的基地作 为俄黑海舰队前出地中海的战略支点,更被俄罗斯视为抗衡北约“围堵”的必然选择。
  当然,俄罗斯的盘算还不止如此。在俄罗斯眼里,自伊拉克战争以来,美国的 “大中东战略”就接连失误,目前美国正加速从中东抽身并“重返亚太”,因此中东出现了冷战结束以来前所未有的力量“真空”。俄罗斯如能及时填补,就可在很 大程度上恢复在中东的传统影响并获取对美博弈的战略“棋子”。更为重要的是,这在很大程度上可以满足俄罗斯久违了的大国自豪感。
  还要看到,300年俄罗斯大国外交的一个重要传统就是“明修栈道、暗渡陈仓”。当前,俄罗斯正以在叙军事行动的“示强”和在落实“明斯克2”协议上的“示弱”来为自乌克兰危机后遭遇的困境解围,并力图通过展现在叙利亚的战略存在“逼和”美国。
  外交是内政的延续,空袭叙利亚还和俄罗斯国内复杂的政经形势不无关联。在油价下跌和西方制裁的重压下,俄罗斯经济今明两年面临衰退压力,而这可能会给国内政治社会带来负面影响。在俄战略界人士来看,空袭叙利亚不仅可以迫使沙特加大对叙利亚反对派的援助力度从而因财政压力改变“保产压价争市场”的政策,还可以增强伊朗支持巴沙尔政权的信心从而使因“伊核问题”解决而重现国际能源市场上的对手竞争力下降,让中东地缘政治“不确定性”推升国际油气价格,解俄燃眉之急;而出兵叙利亚、抗击美国和北约的“豪气”还可以使俄民众斗志昂扬并进一步提升领导人的支持率。
  总之,俄罗斯此次行动既不单单是要帮助巴沙尔全面“收拾旧河山”,也并非仅仅要荡 平IS,更不是与美国和北约“血拼到底”,其实质是有进有退、软硬兼施、一箭多雕、以斗争求妥协的精细算计。但谋事在人、成事在天,这些“锦囊妙计”能否 成功实施,不仅要看俄罗斯的战略谋划,还取决于它的整体国家实力、西方的应对举措以及中东包括叙利亚各种势力错综复杂的多重博弈。

(作者是中国现代国际关系研究院研究员)
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