Abandoning the Withdrawal of American Troops: How Should We Depict the Stability of Afghanistan?

Published in Kyoto Shimbun
(Japan) on 22 October 2015
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephanie Chiu. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
U.S. President Barack Obama has abandoned his plans to withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. As of now, there are around 10,000 troops stationed there, and after the end of this year, the number will be cut to around 5,500 troops.

This constitutes a large policy change for the Obama administration, which made an important public commitment to end the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Though President Obama is approaching the end of his term in January 2017, he must continue to spend the last of his efforts on Afghanistan’s stability.

Because of 9/11, a 2001 terrorist attack centered on the U.S., the U.S. and NATO launched a strike on Afghanistan’s Taliban, caused its collapse, and after a decision made by the U.N. Security Council, dispatched the International Security Assistance Force with American troops at its center.

After that, President Obama took another look at the armed intervention promoted by the previous Bush administration, and aimed to reduce the American military’s level of involvement. In May 2014, Obama announced a plan to withdraw all troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. By the end of 2014, ISAF had completed its mission. Now, of the maximum 100,000 troops who were dispatched, roughly 10,000 soldiers remain to assist Afghan soldiers through training and the teaching of anti-terrorist tactics.

Despite this, security in Afghanistan is worsening. In September, anti-government Taliban forces captured Kunduz, a vital city in the north. Government troops recaptured it a few days later with the assistance of American forces, but because the new government has been mismanaged since its inauguration, it was doubtful that the plan to withdraw American troops would really take place.

On top of that, in the fighting that continued after the recapture, American forces mistakenly bombed a hospital operated by “Doctors without Borders,” an international organization dedicated to providing emergency medical care. The incident resulted in a large amount of casualties, and came to show and symbolize the chaotic nature of Afghan policy.

And time and time again, terrorist attacks by the radical organization Islamic State continue to rise.

In 2011, when American forces completely withdrew from Iraq, public order deteriorated and the Islamic State group was able to greatly expand its influence. The U.S. was showered in criticism from the international community for withdrawing too early. Most likely the U.S. has judged that it cannot prevent this from happening again.

The Afghan government and NATO both welcome the idea [of abandoning withdrawal], but this does not mean that there is any new strategy for peace in Afghanistan. It is highly likely this will be an important issue in the next presidential election.

In the end, suppression through military might only gives birth to a cycle of revenge through terrorism, of which we have witnessed the limits. Though difficult, the only path we can take is to hold a peace conference and move forward through dialogue.

Thus far, Japan has supported Afghanistan through reconstruction projects and police training. I’d like for us to continue on a steady path of cooperation, and nurture talented people who could carry the future of the country on their shoulders.


米軍撤退断念  アフガン安定どう描く

 米国のオバマ大統領が、2016年末までに予定していたアフガニスタン駐留米軍の完全撤退を断念した。約1万人の現在の駐留規模を維持し、16年末以降、約5500人に削減するという。
 イラクとアフガンの「二つの戦争」終結を、重要公約に掲げてきたオバマ政権にとって大きな政策転換となる。オバマ氏は17年1月に大統領の任期満了を迎えるが、アフガンの安定に向けてぎりぎりの努力を続ける必要がある。
 01年の「9・11」米中枢同時テロで、米国と北大西洋条約機構(NATO)はアフガンのタリバン政権を攻撃、崩壊させ、国連安全保障理事会の決議で、米軍を中心とした国際治安支援部隊(ISAF)が派遣された。
 その後、オバマ氏はブッシュ前政権が進めた武力介入を見直し、米軍の役割縮小を目指してきた。14年5月、アフガンから16年末までに完全に撤退する方針を表明。14年末にはISAFが戦闘任務を終了し、最大10万人を派遣してきた米軍は現在、約1万人の兵士を残し、アフガン軍の訓練や対テロ作戦の支援を行っている。
 ところが、アフガンでは治安情勢が悪化。9月に、反政府勢力タリバンが、北部の重要都市クンドゥズを制圧した。米軍支援を受けた政府軍が数日後に奪還したものの、新政府発足以来の失態で、米軍撤退計画も危ぶまれていた。
 さらに、奪還後も続く戦闘で、米軍は国際的な緊急医療援助団体「国境なき医師団」が開設した病院を誤って空爆。多数の死傷者を出し、アフガン政策の混迷ぶりを示す象徴的な出来事になった。
 数々のテロを起こしている過激派組織「イスラム国」も台頭しているという。
 11年に米軍が完全撤退したイラクでは、治安が悪化して「イスラム国」が勢力を拡大し、早すぎた撤退と国際社会の批判を浴びた。その二の舞いを避けるためのやむを得ない判断といえるだろう。
 アフガン政府やNATOは、歓迎の意向を表明しているが、アフガンの和平に新たな戦略があるわけではない。米国の次期大統領選でも重要な争点になる可能性は高い。
 武力による制圧は、結局、テロによる報復の連鎖を生み出し、その限界を露呈した。困難ではあるが、和平協議を実現し、対話を進めるしか道はあるまい。
 日本はこれまで、アフガンの復興事業や警察官の教育を支援してきた。国の未来を担う人材育成に地道に協力を続けたい。
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