As the Scourge of Terrorism Spreads, a Joint US-Russian Effort Could Stem the Bleeding

Published in Ming Pao
(Hong Kong) on 7 November 2015
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Alison Lacey.
The flames of terrorism burn on in the Middle East, its violent conflagrations continuing to erupt in quick succession. While the commencement of an intensive Russian air strike campaign against the Islamic State terrorist organization in recent months had found a degree of success in suppressing Islamic State group activity, the group survived bloodied but unbroken, and its terrorist operations did not completely abate. It was at this juncture that a Russian civilian passenger jet crashed in the Middle East, and with Western intelligence hinting at links to terrorism, several airlines immediately halted flights over the Sinai Peninsula. On the surface, although Russia does not hold any concrete proof and has claimed that it is still too early to draw any conclusions, it appears to be on high alert under the lingering specter of terrorism.

Disjointed US and Russian Strategies an Opportunity for Islamic State Group

Despite the fact that Western nations have brought their best resources to bear on terrorists, more than a decade of fighting has won no resolution, but has rather seen terrorist organizations growing in strength. Take the brutal Islamic State group as an example; the group currently does not control just a few pieces of land, but occupies an enormous swathe of territory sufficient to make a bid for national authority. In the face of such an invasion, nations should have banded together from the start and fought back with their combined forces, but the implications to their individual interests and spheres of influence have ultimately resulted in a vacuum that Islamic State group has been all too happy to exploit.

That a terrorist organization such as the Islamic State group has surpassed al-Qaida in power and prestige in the space of a few short years is inescapably connected with the Middle East policies of Western nations. Policies, derived from blind spots in Western politicians' views on religious and societal development in Middle Eastern history, served as catalysts for Islamic State group expansion. If those nations continue to draw lines in the sand instead of standing together as one against the Islamic State group, the inevitable result will be an increase in terrorist activity and more tragic losses of innocent civilians' lives.

The West and Russia must find a way to collaborate in countering terrorism, as each side fighting its own war will only lead to each side losing its own battles. Recently, al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri called for supporters of al-Qaida and the Islamic State group to unite and collectively face enemy nations. With al-Qaida having become a faint shadow of its former self following the death of Osama bin Laden at the hands of U.S. forces in 2011, al-Zawahiri sought in his statement to revitalize his organization through that partnership. It is imperative to recognize that al-Qaida's cooperation with the Islamic State group would put the world in a much more dangerous place, foment terrorism and heighten the difficulty of a head-on strike against terrorists many times over.

It is worth noting that, as some analysts have pointed out, al-Zawahiri's appeal for unity was most likely recorded after Russia began its airstrikes in the Middle East at the end of September. This suggests that Russian military operations and the participation of other nations in bombing runs have put significant pressure on terrorists, forcing them to band together for survival. If the United States and Russia now each move according to their own calculus with separate Middle East policies, it will only erode the effectiveness of anti-terrorist units and move the world no closer to a solution.

US and Russia Must Fully Commit to Stop the Spread of Terrorism to the Homeland

The reason that fighting the Islamic State group independently would be misguided policy is that even with frequent air strikes from Russia and Western nations, their independent combat strength will be limited in the context of urban warfare and claiming territory. Such offensives have not been fruitful up to now even with air support, and have only resulted in the retaking of a minority of villages, with the Islamic State group still obdurately in possession of many major cities. In fact, after seeing that the Islamic State group would not be easily defeated with one round of airstrikes, Russia has more recently begun to cooperate with Syrian moderate and opposition forces in exchanging intelligence and collectively hunting Islamic State group elements. This could signal a turning point; if each side can cast aside the enmity and bias of the past, first concentrating their forces to fight terrorist organizations together and later resolving the Syrian issue through peace talks identifying the primary vs. secondary points of contention, the world can put a stop to the rampant terrorism that plagues it today.

The United States and Russia linking arms to fight terrorism will have salutary effects on the general situation in the Middle East, but even more urgent is the emerging trend of terrorism in the homeland. Both nations have been threatened domestically to varying degrees, with the 9/11 incident in the United States and Moscow's headaches settling Russia's holdings in Central Asia, as well as the loss of its passenger plane making headlines. At its root, the key point is that the United States and Russia have done little to strike at the heart of terrorist organizations, but have instead, each preoccupied by their regional contests, drawn up separate plans. Fighting terrorism has only been a pretense here while their other interests have remained at the core, and moving forward in such a manner will only breed more terrorism. The United States and Russia are both traditional stakeholders in the Middle East and command enormous influence in the region. If they can take the first step to unraveling conflicts of interest and forming a united front against terrorism, with the combined military might of the two nations, exterminating terrorist organizations should prove no difficult task.


中東的恐怖主義活動燒之不盡,一波之後又有一波,俄羅斯對恐怖主義組織「伊斯蘭國」(ISIS) 發動猛烈空襲之後,最近一段時期似乎遏制ISIS的活動,然而百足之蟲死而不僵,恐怖主義活動未見全部偃旗息鼓。就在此時,一架俄羅斯的民航客機墜毁中 東,西方情報聲稱這次事件可能涉及恐怖主義活動,一些航空公司更立即停止飛越西奈上空。從表面情况看來,雖尚未有真憑實據,俄方稱作出結論言之尚早,可是 警戒已然因此高懸,恐怖主義活動的陰影揮之不去。
美俄各自為戰 ISIS有可乘之機
西方國家發起的打擊恐怖主義活動,儘管精銳盡出,十幾年來未 竟全功,更加令人意想不到的是,如今恐怖主義組織愈發強大,以手段殘酷的ISIS為例,目前控制的不止是幾塊地方,而是足以爭奪國家政權的佔領大片土地。 面對ISIS攻城掠地,各國本應共同努力合力對付,可是當中牽涉各自的利益糾結及勢力分割,以致讓ISIS鑽了空子,由此坐大。
恐怖主義組 織如ISIS短短幾年間聲勢壓倒蓋達等組織,不能否認的是與西方國家的中東政策有關。西方政客對中東宗教及社會發展歷史的盲點,其衍生的政策到後來客觀上 促成ISIS的壯大。如今若繼續各自劃分地盤設定範圍,而非團結一體對付ISIS,往後必會有更多的恐怖主義活動發生,更多無辜平民慘死。
於 抗擊恐怖主義活動而言,西方及俄羅斯不得不團結,因為倘若仍是各自為戰,只會落得被逐個擊破的結局。最近,蓋達領軍人物扎瓦希里呼籲蓋達與ISIS的支持 者團結,共同對付他們的敵對國家。拉登於2011年被美軍擊斃後,蓋達氣勢大不如前,扎瓦希里此時出來發表聲明,既有通過團結合作以圖重振蓋達,人們更應 警覺的是,一旦ISIS與蓋達合作,世界就會落入更危險境地,恐怖主義蔓延,到時要施以迎頭痛擊的難度更大。
值得留意的是,分析指出扎瓦希 里這次呼籲大團結的講話,可能是9月底俄羅斯在中東地區展開空襲行動之後錄製,也意味俄羅斯的軍事行動及其他國家參與轟炸攻擊,對恐怖主義組織構成巨大壓 力,迫使他們合攏保命。因此,若美俄此刻因為各自的中東政策各懷打算,只會削弱反恐力量,師老無功,無助解決死結。
恐怖主義蔓延本土 美俄須全力遏制
面 對ISIS,各自為戰不是正道,因為縱然俄羅斯及西方國家空襲頻仍,但在爭城逐土的地面戰場,反ISIS的各方武裝力量單獨作戰能力有限,在空中轟炸支援 下至今仍未取得甜頭,只是拿下少數村鎮,ISIS依然牢牢控制多個大城巿。經過一輪空襲,俄羅斯看到ISIS不是易與之輩,近期與敘利亞溫和反對派合作, 交換情報,共同追剿ISIS。這是局勢出現轉捩的信號,各方若能捐棄前嫌與成見,先集中力量共同對付恐怖主義組織,之後再通過和平談判解決敘利亞問題,分 清主要矛盾與次要矛盾,現今的恐怖主義活動猖獗的狀况始可化解。
美俄共同反恐,對中東局勢是有正面作用,但更迫切的是恐怖主義活動燒到美俄 本土的趨勢冒現,兩國內部安全都受到程度不同的威脅,美國發生「九一一」事件,俄羅斯中亞地區也令莫斯科當局為之頭大,俄羅斯航機墜毁令人關注。正本清 源,關鍵是美俄打擊恐怖主義組織老巢不力,加上夾纏兩國的地區爭逐,變成各有算計,反恐只是幌子,自身利益始是核心,如此反恐,只會愈反愈多。美俄在中東 區內擁有巨大影響力,也是傳統的持份者,若能從自己開始消解矛盾共同反恐,以兩國軍力,消滅恐怖主義組織應該不會是太過困難的事。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Topics

Canada: It Turns Out Trump’s Tariffs Were Illegal After All

Australia: Trump’s Tariffs Were Already Ever-Changing. Now, Court Fights Add to the Uncertainty

Austria: Soon Putin Will Have Successfully Alienated Trump

Canada: Scorning Trump’s Golden Dome Would Be a Mistake

Related Articles

Hong Kong: Foreign Media Warn US Brand Reputation Veering toward ‘Collapse’ under Trump Policy Impact

Hong Kong: The Lessons of World War II: The Real World Importance of Resisting Hegemony

Mexico: The Trump Problem

Taiwan: Making America Great Again and Taiwan’s Crucial Choice

Venezuela: Vietnam: An Outlet for China