The US Wants to Use the South China Sea to Stir the Hornet’s Nest

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 18 November 2015
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fiona McAllister. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
At today's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting in Manila, the capital city of the Philippines, one of the greatest sources of suspense concerned the extent to which the U.S. would squeeze the issue of the South China Sea into discussions which should have predominantly concerned Asia-Pacific trade cooperation. The Philippines had already stated it would not raise the issue of territorial disputes in the South China Sea during the APEC meeting, but the U.S. said that even though the topic did not feature on the formal list of issues to be discussed, it would nevertheless raise this issue during the discussions.

Compared to the current state of upheaval in Europe, this situation should be considered trivial. Serious terror attacks have disrupted Europe: France has closed its borders and a few countries are once again reconsidering their approach to admitting Syrian refugees. Twenty-seven U.S. states, on the opposite side of the Atlantic, have refused to admit refugees from the Middle East. However, with the continuing unrest and chaos of war in the Middle East, the rush of refugees is never-ending, and their resentment will only grow deeper and deeper after having met these cruel migration roadblocks.

A great number of people believe the U.S. is responsible for the chaos in Europe. Sept. 11 was an outpouring of Islamic extremism toward America. Later, the U.S. successfully cultivated Middle Eastern terrorism outside its borders and pulled Europe into the Middle Eastern “hornet's nest.” Currently, the hornets aren't stinging the U.S; instead, they’re fiercely stinging Europe: first Madrid, then London, and most recently Paris.

On this side of the Pacific Ocean, the U.S. is closely watching the South China Sea. The U.S. is far from the South China Sea, the Middle East and Europe, yet the U.S. has taken up the issue of “re-balancing the Asia-Pacific” region in an attempt to re-stir the hornet's nest.

The West always follows this sort of logic: ‘We really like to stir up hornets’ nests, but the hornets set free from each of those nests didn't emerge because of us!’

So, in the end, it depends on whether the South China Sea is or is not a hornet's nest. If it is, the whole region will find it difficult to escape calamity. Some people question whether the confusion in the South China Sea is doing the U.S. more harm than good, and question whether the U.S. doesn't actually intend to turn the region into chaos. This analysis isn't without justification, but the problem is that disorder in the South China Sea causes greater problems for China and its distant surroundings than it does for the U.S.; Washington will require enormous courage to poke the South China Sea hornet's nest.

The U.S. is a nation in the middle of two oceans. It has very strong territorial land defenses, and in the past decade, its army has been stationed all over the world. A few people have died, but the hornets’ nests the U.S. has poked all over the world, when strung together, form an invisible wall of potential threats to the United States. Because building such a wall is costly, even if it may be useful to the U.S., they should first consider the benefits and drawbacks of such actions.

The South China Sea issues aren't really shocking. With regard to the region’s development, a real community has been formed, and as far as territorial disputes are concerned, they are no less than strategic buffers. No two countries claiming sovereignty within the South China Sea have any preferences or demands. As for territorial disputes in the South China Sea, the words “never-ending” and “incessant” are appropriate. Following China's construction of its island reefs, the South China Sea has gradually prevented a problem from being viewed as definitively breaking any unwritten rules. The U.S. has put on a noisy performance; its fleet has come here to conduct a patrol and finds itself inflaming the situation and interfering with the unwritten rules of the South China Sea.

The biggest strategic powers in the South China Sea region are starting to lean toward China. I am afraid this provides no absolute guarantee that the South China Sea won't become a hornet's nest to be stirred up by the United States. The U.S. is a great distance from the South China Sea; some of its hasty, rude and impetuous actions are hard to miss in China, especially when it acts like a naughty child by going around and breaking things. China needs to control the U.S. to be in line with the interests of the whole region.


社评:美国想把南海当马蜂窝试着捅

APEC峰会今天在菲律宾首都马尼拉举行,它的一大悬念是美国会在多大程度上把南海话题往这个本应主要讨论亚太经贸合作的会议上塞。菲律宾已经表示不会将南海领土纠纷列入APEC议程,但美国表示即使南海不在正式议题上,它也会在会议的其他场合提出这一问题。
  与欧洲当下的乱局比起来,APEC上较劲的这个点应当算是“小儿科”了。严重恐袭已经打乱欧洲的阵脚,法国关闭了边界,一些国家在重新考虑接纳叙利亚难民的态度,连大西洋对岸的美国也有27个州表明拒绝接纳中东难民。然而中东的战乱和动荡在继续,难民的涌出停不下来,被粗暴堵住的他们将形成“堰塞湖”,把新的不满和仇恨越堆越高。
  很多人认定,欧洲的混乱美国是根源性的责任者。“9·11”是伊斯兰极端主义对美国的直接倾泻,美国后来成功把中东恐怖主义堵在了国门之外,拉着欧洲一起去中东“捅马蜂窝”。马蜂咬不着美国,却一次次狠蛰了欧洲,先是马德里,然后是伦敦,最新是巴黎。

  在太平洋这边,美国盯住了南海。南海离美国比中东和欧洲离美国都远,美国拿起“亚太再平衡”这根更长的竹竿,试图把南海也当成一个马蜂窝来捅。
  西方一直有这样的逻辑:我们的确喜欢四处捅马蜂窝,但是每个地方的马蜂窝并不是我们放的。
  所以就要看南海到底是不是一个马蜂窝了。如果它是的话,整个地区有可能在劫难逃。一些人质疑,南海乱了对美国的坏处大于好处,美国没有让南海大乱的意思。这种分析也并非无道理,但问题是,只要南海乱了对中国和周边的坏处远远大于对美国的坏处,华盛顿把南海当马蜂窝捅的胆子就会是最大的。
  美国是两洋国家,又有超级强大的国土防御能力,过去十几年美军四处征战,死了一些人,但美国在海外捅的马蜂窝连在一起形成消耗对美潜在威胁的无形的墙。由于这堵墙造价昂贵,但却有用,美国对该不该继续造它们患得患失。
  南海本身没有那么强烈的爆炸性。整个地区在发展问题上形成了实际的命运共同体,它对领土纠纷来说不啻是战略性缓冲。南海任何两个声索国之间都没有宁肯什么都不要,也要先就领土问题“死磕”的意思,随着中国扩建岛礁等行动平稳落地,南海逐渐有了不让问题断然破裂的潜规则。
  美国采取了激烈的口头表现,它的舰队也来南海做巡航秀,它处在挑唆南海局势升级和加入南海潜规则体系的摇摆之中。
  南海的最大战略主动权在逐渐向中国倾斜。这恐怕也是南海不作为马蜂窝被美国捅了的根本保障。美国离南海太远,它在这里的一些轻率和莽撞倾向大概是难免的,它有时会在这里搞出顽皮孩子砸玻璃的表现。中国需要制约它,这符合整个地区的利益。
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