US Should Give Earnest Consideration to North Korea’s Proposal for Denuclearization

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 18 January 2016
by Chen Fengjun (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Rachel Pott.
On Jan. 15, North Korea named two conditions for "ceasing nuclear tests," suggesting it would do so if able to strike a peace treaty with the United States and if no more U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises are held. The statement is significant because it comes in the wake of North Korea's fourth nuclear weapons test, but Pyongyang has offered similar terms on multiple occasions in the past. For example, in January 2015, via a United Nations press conference, North Korea openly urged the United States to accept its offer to halt nuclear weapons tests in exchange for the suspension of military exercises, at the time claiming that "many things will be possible" with "very meaningful implications" if the United States agreed to engage in dialogue on the matter.

Objectively speaking, North Korea's proposal has its own rationale and positive points. First, North Korea's desire for a peace treaty to replace the ceasefire agreement is not entirely without basis. In fact, within the joint statement produced on Sept. 19, 2005, via the Six Party Talks, it was noted that "the Six Parties [are] committed to joint efforts for lasting peace and stability in Northeast Asia. The directly related parties will negotiate a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula at an appropriate separate forum." The statement also mentioned that "the Six Parties agreed to explore ways and means for promoting security cooperation in Northeast Asia," as well as that "the D.P.R.K. and the United States undertook to respect each other's sovereignty, exist peacefully together, and take steps to normalize their relations subject to their respective bilateral policies."

The content of these clauses, however, has been almost entirely shelved, making the document simply paper and ink. North Korea was alone in its near-daily calls for the signing of a peace treaty. The United States, meanwhile, has insisted upon North Korea abandoning its nuclear program as a precondition, and is seemingly unwilling to change the Cold War state of affairs on the peninsula. In the opinion of this author, real implementation of the above measures is of paramount importance to establishing peace and stability and denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. Only by replacing the ceasefire agreement with a peace treaty and establishing trust between the United States and North Korea can the root causes of the nuclear conundrum be addressed. Speaking only of denuclearization to the exclusion of all else and setting such a step as a precondition is no longer a viable approach. Why should it not be possible for North Korea's nuclear disarmament and a peace regime to take effect at the same time? If such an agreement can be reached, it would be a comprehensive "package" deal that could bring the Cold War standoff on the peninsula to an end.

Second, North Korea's security concerns are entirely understandable and worth bearing in mind. Its possession of nuclear weapons is, at its core, primarily to ensure its security, as Pyongyang must constantly be wary of U.S. and South Korean forces, which are many times more powerful than its own. As a result, North Korea's proposal to cease nuclear weapons tests, if the United States puts a halt to military threats and joint military exercises with South Korea, is undeniably grounded in reason. And on the part of the United States and South Korea, doing so would not be difficult. The United States, however, remains committed to the threat of force, having never treated North Korea's security concerns and the nuclear issue as matters of equal importance. If those concerns are not suitably addressed, what chance is there of denuclearization?

The United States has consistently and categorically rejected North Korea's aforementioned proposals in favor of adopting a policy of so-called "strategic tolerance," meaning the United States and South Korea are resolved to not budge from their positions unless North Korea first makes compromises. The policy requires the United States to ignore North Korea's provocations and bluffs until it returns to the "path of reason," and the U.S. makes economic aid and political compromise contingent upon the abandonment of North Korea's nuclear program. But the truth is that the United States is neither "tolerating" nor "restraining" Pyongyang and is instead choosing more radical schemes to deal with North Korea, such as the expansion of economic sanctions, a "fight fire with fire and nukes with nukes" posture, and other measures intended to precipitate the collapse of the North Korean regime.

These policies have made abundantly clear the true substance of U.S. "strategic tolerance," and that the United States has little interest in establishing a peaceful regime on the peninsula or addressing the root cause of the nuclear issue. Some analysts believe Washington is intentionally angering North Korea and tempting it to rash action, hoping to thereby reap even greater strategic benefits for itself. The United States has taken every available opportunity to forward its "Asia-Pacific rebalance" strategy and accelerate its military pivot to Asia, two of its very real and long-term strategic goals, and those with unclouded vision will recognize in a glance that Washington is most likely now leveraging the North Korean nuclear issue toward the same purpose.

After so many years, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has not been ameliorated, but aggravated, and North Korea has not only refused to abandon its nuclear program, but is now expanding it. Regardless of how many strategic conjectures one makes, what is certain is that North Korea's "willfulness" originates from its own security considerations. And in this regard, the United States is unquestionably primarily responsible for heightening North Korea's perception of insecurity. As such, it has now come to a point where U.S. policies could bear some adjustment, and an objective evaluation and consideration of North Korea's proposal would be a judicious decision indeed.

The author is a professor at Beijing University's School of International Studies.


  朝鲜15号开出“停止核试”的两个条件,表示如果能跟美国达成和约,以及美国停止跟韩国进行联合军事演习,朝鲜就会停止核试。这是朝鲜第四次核试验后的一次重要表态,但实际上朝鲜之前也曾多次提过类似建议。比如2015年1月份朝鲜就在联合国公开催促美国接受“不核试换不军演”提议,称如果美方同意就此对话,“许多事情将成为可能”,会产生“深远影响”等等。
  客观而论,朝方建议有其合理性与积极意义。其一,朝方渴望以和平协定取代停战协定并非毫无 依据。实际上,六方会谈“9·19共同声明”中己有这方面表述:“六方承诺,共同致力于东北亚地区持久和平与稳定。直接有关方将另行谈判建立朝鲜半岛永久 和平机制”。同时,“六方同意探讨加强东北亚安全合作的途径。朝方和美方承诺,相互尊重主权,和平共存,根据各自双边政策,采取步骤实现关系正常化”。但 这些相关条文过去几乎被束之高阁,成了一纸空文。只有朝方几乎天天在呼吁要签订“和平协定”。美方则以朝鲜先弃核做为先决条件。实际上,美国似乎并不愿意 改变半岛的冷战格局。笔者认为真正落实此条款乃是解决半岛和平稳定与无核化之根本大计。以和平协定取代停战协定,在美朝之间建立信任,半岛核问题才能从根 本上得到解决。单纯谈弃核问题并以此为条件已经不合适宜。朝鲜弃核与和平机制同时生效,有何不可?如果能够达成,这可谓是全方位终结半岛冷战格局的“一揽 子”方案。
  其二,朝鲜安全关切确实可以理解也值得关注。朝鲜拥核说到底就是为了自保安全。对于军事实 力达到其数倍的美韩,朝鲜一直提心吊担。因此,朝方提出若美停止武力威胁和与韩联合军演,朝便可以停止核试,不能不说是有情有由。对于美韩而言,这样做也 并非很难。但美方仍然执意以武力相威胁,始终没把朝鲜的安全问题与核问题作为同等重要的事情予以对待。“朝鲜安全关切”的“转弯点”不解决,何来朝鲜弃核 之说?
  美国一直断然拒绝朝方上述建议,而是采取对朝所谓“战略容忍”政策,意即“美韩坚决不动, 除非朝鲜先妥协”。该政策要求美国忽视朝鲜的挑衅与讹诈,直到朝鲜回归“理性的轨道”——真正弃核,才会给予经济援助和政治妥协。实际上,美国绝非是对朝 “容忍”或“克制”,相反是在采取更为激进的招数来对付朝鲜,比如通过加大经济制裁、“以武制武”“以核制核”、促使朝鲜政权崩溃等方法。
  这些政策表明了美国“战略容忍”的实质,它对通过构建半岛和平机制而从本源上解决 朝核问题没有多大兴趣。有分析认为,美国是在故意激怒朝鲜,诱其采取不智行动,进而从中获取最大战略红利。借助各种机会贯彻“亚太再平衡”战略,加快军事 重心向该地区倾斜,是美国现实与长远的战略重大目的之一。而明眼人一看便知,华盛顿现在可能正以朝核问题作为抓手,来推动这一目的的实现。
  这么长时间以来,朝鲜半岛局势不仅没有明显缓和反而越趋紧张,朝鲜不仅没有弃核反 而加大了有核化趋势。无论有多少种战略猜测,朝鲜的这种“任性”首先肯定源自保护自身安全的考虑。而让朝鲜感到不安全的责任,美国当然无法推卸。美国政策 到了该调整的时侯了,客观评估和考虑朝鲜的建议是其明智之举。(作者是北京大学国际关系学院教授)
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