New Strategy Needed in Europe and US Effort To End Syrian Civil War

Published in Sankei Shimbun
(Japan) on 19 January 2016
by Daisuke Murakami (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Maisha Kuniyuki. Edited by Melanie Rehfuss.
President Obama’s final State of the Union address was anticlimactic. Nowhere in his administrative policy for the coming year did the U.S. president, the leader of a superpower nation, mention important issues in Asia such as North Korea’s nuclear tests and China’s disregard for international law with its maritime advances.

Furthermore, counterterrorism was the only foreign policy mentioned. Even this was only mentioned in an abstract manner, with neither a concrete plan nor outlook.

Even today, the Sunni extremist Islamic State group continues to incite violence comparable to last year’s terror attacks in Paris and similar suicide bombings in Jakarta.

The war on terror is an important issue that is shared by many countries. However, while President Obama is right to make this his “priority number one,” it is difficult to say that the U.S. is taking any initiative on the issue when all the address stressed was international cooperation.

Last week, former Republican Secretary of Defense Hagel, who served under the Obama administration for two short years, told a group in Washington that “we should have learned from Saddam Hussein and Gadhafi: you can take a brutal dictator out but [you] better understand what you may get in return. We never asked that question, what’s coming after Assad?”

Hagel also criticized Obama’s failure to carry out his promise to remove Assad from Syria during the beginning of the country’s civil war, saying, “to make those kinds of pronouncements and then not follow through does affect the credibility of a president.”

There is no doubt that the prolonged civil war has allowed the Islamic State group to extend its influence. Even if the Assad regime had been overthrown, however, it is likely that even more chaos would have ensued under the rule of the al-Nusra Front, a branch of the al-Qaida terrorist group that has international reach, and the Islamic State group.

The argument that we need to remove the Assad regime in order to defeat the Islamic State group is a futile one that is often made in the U.S. The same argument is also made in Europe.

Russia, however, supports the Assad regime and has been increasing its influence in the Middle East. Unfortunately, this is a result of its level-headed and accurate analysis of the situation. Europe and the U.S., on the other hand, have not correctly grasped the situation, resulting in ineffective strategies. At this rate, they will not be able to produce a sound solution that would remedy the issue.


米欧はシリア内戦終結に向け「間違った前提」見直せ 論説副委員長・村上大介

オバマ米大統領の任期最後となった一般教書演説には、拍子抜けさせられた。超大国である米国の大統領が示す今後1年の施政方針は、北朝鮮の核実験問題や国際ルールを無視した中国の海洋進出といったアジアの重要課題に一言も触れなかった。
 さらに、外交面で唯一強調した「テロ対策」についても何ら具体策や展望を示さず、抽象論に終始したのは、どうしたものか。
 昨年のパリ同時多発テロと手法が酷似するインドネシアの首都ジャカルタでの連続自爆テロなど、イスラム教スンニ派過激組織「イスラム国」(IS)の絡む事件が今年に入っても続いている。
 「テロとの戦い」は各国共通の重要な課題であり、オバマ氏が「最優先課題」に挙げることを否定はしない。だが、各国との協調ばかりが強調され、米国のイニシアチブが示されたとは言いがたい。
 共和党員ながら2期目のオバマ政権で短期間、国防長官を務めたヘーゲル氏は先週、ワシントンでの講演で、「米国はイラクのフセインやリビアのカダフィが唐突に排除された後を襲った混乱と無秩序から学ぶべきだった」と指摘した。
 オバマ氏がシリア内戦の初期に同国のアサド大統領排除を公言したことについて「その後の米国の政策の手足を縛った」とも批判した。
内戦の泥沼化がIS伸長を許した要因であることは間違いないが、単にアサド政権を崩壊させても、それに続いたのは、さらなる混乱と、国際テロ組織アルカーイダ系のヌスラ戦線とISの「天下」だったろう。
 アサド政権を排除しないからISを倒せないといった、米国でよく聞かれる議論は、まったく空回りしている。欧州でも同様だ。
 ロシアはアサド政権にてこ入れし、中東での発言力を増している。残念ながら冷徹な読みが当たっているからだ。そもそも間違った前提に立ち、戦略を欠く米欧は、このままでは有効な処方箋は出せまい。
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