‘Anti-Establishment’ Candidates Targeted in US Elections

Published in Beijing News
(China) on 3 February 2016
by Xu Lifan (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Bora Mici.
i>This year's U.S. presidential election has seen an outbreak of "severe political apathy syndrome." The two mainstream parties' "anti-establishment" candidates have begun to gain the political high ground, an indication that the U.S. political spectrum is now deviating from the conservatively central axis of the past and moving outward, toward the left and right extremes. The shift comes as both a source of vexation and a challenge for the traditional leadership of both parties.

The starting gun was fired with the Iowa caucuses that commenced Monday at 7 p.m. local time. Iowa has previously been called "the moderate state," and consequently occupies a position of strategic importance within the general election. There is no one among either the Republican or Democratic Party presidential candidates who does not view Iowa as a political weather vane, and every one of them is on the scene, giving their all in the hope of seizing an advantage in this and all of the state contests to follow.

Within the Republican camp, real estate mogul Donald Trump has enjoyed a consistent and considerable lead in the polls, and on the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has not seemed to be facing much in the way of strong competition. However, there has been a significant disparity between the votes cast by registered Republicans or Democrats within party primaries and polling numbers. According to Associated Press statistics from the first three hours after voting began, Republican Ted Cruz surpassed Trump with a 28.3 percent to 25 percent lead, while Marco Rubio sat in third place with 21.9 percent, and the other candidates stood in the single digits. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Clinton held a narrow lead with 50.7 percent over Bernie Sanders' 48.6 percent, and votes for other Democratic candidates did not amount to even 1 percent of the aggregate.

The outline formed by these preliminary results is that of a contest between Republicans Cruz, Trump and Rubio, while among the Democrats, it will come down to Clinton and Sanders. Even though Cruz and Clinton have carried the day within their respective parties, neither has done so by a decisive margin. Additionally, the number of party members eligible to vote has swelled immensely since four years ago, with the Republican polling location at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa recording five times more votes than in 2012.

The unexpectedly fierce competition and increased voting figures make evident that this year's U.S. general election is not like all the others. Compared to past iterations, this year's election has been swept by an outbreak of "severe political apathy syndrome." That Republicans Trump and Cruz have been received with such fervor is not because of any institutional or political principles they hold, but purely because they are new faces in politics.

The Democratic Sanders is much the same. The more lacking a candidate is in political resources, the more support he or she receives from voters; this is how Americans are expressing their dissatisfaction with U.S. politics.

The change has been projected onto the candidates themselves and their campaign strategies, as whoever can show that they are the most anti-establishment will be received with the most enthusiasm. The reason why the politically irreverent Trump has become the most eye-catching political celebrity for the moment is that he has successfully positioned himself as an outlet for the rancor that many Americans feel toward the political system. Sanders can go toe to toe with Clinton because he holds a clear-cut leftist position and advocates taking the United States down the path of Scandinavian-style socialism. These anti-establishment candidates have begun to gain the political high ground, an indication that the U.S. political spectrum is now deviating from the conservatively central axis of the past and moving outward, toward the left and right extremes.

Clearly, the shift comes as both a source of vexation and a challenge for the traditional leaderships of both parties, and the best way to deal with such a challenge is to nip it in the bud during the primaries. Viewed from this perspective, it is perhaps no accident that former "tea party hero" Cruz, who has been relatively sound politically and enjoys the support of evangelicals, emerged victorious over Trump, while Clinton and her overtly dynastic overtones edged out Sanders.

Of course, in the end, the final crowns will go to the candidates who can mobilize their party base and social media. And regardless of who goes on to represent their party in the final arena, one point is certain: Now that the primaries are officially underway, campaign strategy will play a bigger role than the political positions themselves.


  今年美国大选患上了“狂热的政治冷淡症”。两党“离经叛道”者开始占领政治高地,表明美国的政治光谱正在偏离以往保守的中轴线,开始向左右两极位移。这对两党传统主导力量来说都是烦恼与挑战。
  美国大选党内初选当地时间周一晚上7点在艾奥瓦州拉开帷幕。艾奥瓦州向来有“中立州”之称,因此在美国大选中具有战略地位。共和党和民主党的总统候选人无不将艾奥瓦州的党内初选视作风向标,都到了选举现场全力以赴,以图在今后各州的争夺中占据先机。
  共和党阵营中,房地产亿万富翁特朗普的民调支持率一直遥遥领先,民主党阵营中,前国务卿希拉里似乎也没有强有力竞争对手。然而,由共和党和民主 党注册党员进行的党内投票与民调大相径庭。根据美联社开选后近3小时的统计,共和党内克鲁兹以28.3%比25%一举超越了特朗普,卢比奥以21.9%的 得票率居第三位,其他候选人得票率为个位数;民主党内希拉里仅以50.7%比48.6%稍稍领先于桑德斯,其他党内候选人的得票率不足1%。
  这个结果,初步形成了共和党内克鲁兹、特朗普和卢比奥竞争,民主党内希拉里和桑德斯竞争的格局。尽管克鲁兹和希拉里分别在党内获得了首胜,但是 没有人获得绝对优势。另外,两党履行投票权的党员人数大大超过2012年选举时。位于艾奥瓦州首府得梅因的德累克大学的一个共和党投票点,投票人数甚至达 到了2012年的5倍。
  超出预期的激烈竞争和远超以往的投票人数,清晰显示出了今年美国大选的一些特殊性。相对于往届,今年美国大选患上了“狂热的政治冷淡症”。共和党内特朗普、克鲁兹之所以受到狂热欢迎,原因不是因为他们有多么系统的政治纲领,而仅仅是因为他们还是政治新人。
  民主党内的桑德斯同样如此。越是缺乏政治资源支持的候选人,越是受到选民们的拥戴,选民们用这种方式表达了对于美国政治的冷淡。
  这种变化投射到候选人身上,帮助候选人们改变了选举策略。谁更能显示出“离经叛道”,谁就能享受欢呼。触犯了许多政治忌讳的特朗普之所以成为当 下最耀眼的政治明星,原因即在于他成功地扮演了美国民众政治情绪宣泄口的角色。桑德斯之所以能和希拉里并驾齐驱,是因为他持鲜明的左派立场,主张美国走北 欧社会主义道路。“离经叛道”者开始占领政治高地,表明美国的政治光谱正在偏离以往保守的中轴线,开始向左右两极位移。
  显然,美国政治的这种变化,对两党传统主导力量来说都是烦恼与挑战。应对这种挑战的最好时机就是在党内初选时狙击。从这个角度看,相对官运稳健、受到福音派支持的前“茶党英雄”克鲁兹在首场初选中战胜特朗普,带有鲜明家族政治特征的希拉里战胜桑德斯,或许不是偶然。
  当然,最终谁能胜选,还要看两党候选人在基层和网络的动员能力。无论两党谁将站上最后的擂台,有一点是可以肯定的,在进入正式初选后,选举策略比政治立场宣示更重要。
  徐立凡(学者)
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