Trump’s Campaign Has Turned Into a Series of Errors
Published in Aktyalnye Kommentarii
(Russia) on 7 April 2016
by Olga Davidova (link to original)
(Russia) on 7 April 2016
by Olga Davidova (link to original)
Translated from
by Olga Devine.
Edited by Graeme Stewart-Wilson.
During the Republican primary in Wisconsin, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas beat his rival, billionaire Donald Trump. Deputy Director of the Center for Current Politics in Russia Oleg Ignatov explains to Aktualnye Kommentarii the reasons for Ted Cruz’s victory and the basic mistakes made by the odious businessman.
Over the past two weeks, Trump’s campaign has turned into a series of errors. First, he attacked Ted Cruz’s wife, then called for the punishment of women who get abortions. As a result, his already low ratings among female voters became worse.
Additionally, he gave several interviews that showed his lack of preparation in political matters. His campaign continues to exploit pure emotion, which is appealing to angry white men. But emotions are gradually beginning to run out of steam.
Against this background, Cruz managed to consolidate his dropout competitors’ part of the electorate around himself and present himself as the only anti-Trump candidate who can win. He also pressed his other competitor, John Kasich, who is continuing to participate in the race as a third candidate, and who now plays the role of spoiler for the senator from Texas.
However, the states where primaries will be held next in April are more conducive to Trump victories than to victories for Cruz. On April 19, voting will take place in New York — Trump's home state — where 95 delegates are at stake. Polls show that the businessman is leading there by a wide margin.
On April 26, primaries will be held in five other states, including Pennsylvania, which has a lot of delegates, and where Trump also is the leader.
It is important for Cruz to use his victory in Wisconsin to change the dynamics of the polls in those states, as well as to continue expanding his support base. If this happens, it will keep alive his chance of getting ahead of Trump in the delegate race, and of going to the convention as leader.
For the businessman, in turn, it is necessary to look for an opportunity to restart his campaign, so that this one defeat will not become a negative trend. Nevertheless, right now, the most likely scenario is an open convention, where neither Trump nor Cruz have the necessary 1,237 delegates, and everything will be decided at the Republican convention. This means that the fight will go to the very end — until June 7 when voting will take place in five states, including California.
Over the past two weeks, Trump’s campaign has turned into a series of errors. First, he attacked Ted Cruz’s wife, then called for the punishment of women who get abortions. As a result, his already low ratings among female voters became worse.
Additionally, he gave several interviews that showed his lack of preparation in political matters. His campaign continues to exploit pure emotion, which is appealing to angry white men. But emotions are gradually beginning to run out of steam.
Against this background, Cruz managed to consolidate his dropout competitors’ part of the electorate around himself and present himself as the only anti-Trump candidate who can win. He also pressed his other competitor, John Kasich, who is continuing to participate in the race as a third candidate, and who now plays the role of spoiler for the senator from Texas.
However, the states where primaries will be held next in April are more conducive to Trump victories than to victories for Cruz. On April 19, voting will take place in New York — Trump's home state — where 95 delegates are at stake. Polls show that the businessman is leading there by a wide margin.
On April 26, primaries will be held in five other states, including Pennsylvania, which has a lot of delegates, and where Trump also is the leader.
It is important for Cruz to use his victory in Wisconsin to change the dynamics of the polls in those states, as well as to continue expanding his support base. If this happens, it will keep alive his chance of getting ahead of Trump in the delegate race, and of going to the convention as leader.
For the businessman, in turn, it is necessary to look for an opportunity to restart his campaign, so that this one defeat will not become a negative trend. Nevertheless, right now, the most likely scenario is an open convention, where neither Trump nor Cruz have the necessary 1,237 delegates, and everything will be decided at the Republican convention. This means that the fight will go to the very end — until June 7 when voting will take place in five states, including California.
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