Trump vs. Clinton: Battle of a Man-Eating Shark and a Canary

Published in DW News
(China) on 5 May 2016
by Wang Tianyi (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fiona McAllister. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.

 

 

With John Kasich's withdrawal from the presidential race, Trump has been confirmed as the presumptive Republican Party candidate. This also means he will face the lauded Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. So, will he defeat Clinton and enter the White House?

To get your head around this, you need to understand the strengths and weaknesses of both candidates. First of all, Trump and Clinton are both disliked by portions of their own country. However, they are not alike in how they are disliked; Clinton has a bad reputation among voters, and this is something which has been established over the years. Clinton's dishonesty during the political process, her rudeness and impetuousness as senator during the Iraq War, and the fact that she did not take responsibility as secretary of state during the Arab Spring, all combined with the voters' vague hatred of Wall Street, has cemented her situation, and her bad reputation is the kind that is extremely difficult to shake off. However, Trump’s bad reputation — one of being a racist, fascist, a women-hater and a hater of the disabled, etc. — is unsubstantiated. This notoriety is partly due to Trump's unbridled talk, but is also partly the result of the media seizing the opportunity to create hype, and this kind of bad impression is very easy to change. Under these kinds of circumstances, it is in fact Clinton who is in an enormously disadvantageous position, but the majority of observers are ignorant of this.

Secondly, in comparing Clinton to Trump, her greatest inadequacy is her poor ability to grasp the demands of voters and her difficulties understanding the ordinary person's observations on societal issues. She is adept at dealing in “officialese," but clumsy at pointing the finger at the core of the issue. In fighting for voters' approval, she has raised topics such as "a cabinet of women" and "alien disclosure”; and while these are perhaps attractive to women such as Madeleine Albright and UFO enthusiasts, for those struggling to meet their own basic needs, it is difficult to sympathize. To make matters worse, when she faced desperate coal mine workers, Clinton repeated her previous “officialese.” While this kind of language is perhaps useful for conflict and buck-passing, this is the major reason why she is despised by the masses. (The people who accept the language used by officials are, in fact, stupid.)

But Trump is different; his policies all repeatedly emphasize American jobs and American incomes; together with his slogan of "Make America Great Again,” he is essentially pandering to the masses who are feeling the impact of immigration, a sense of loss in their living standards, and a sharp decline in support for globalized industry. Faced with the public demand for income, Trump, without the slightest hesitation, advocated setting up a trade barrier to prevent industry moving abroad, establishing a wall to put an end to illegal immigration and creating more job opportunities. Regardless of reality, this satisfies the people's thirst for their needs to be met.

In this respect, Clinton's voters in fact are only “female-voters,” “minority-voters” and “issue-voters,” not voters directly interested in work and income. Compared to Trump, Clinton is actually quite weak, and this is something that those who do not understand the nature of politics ignore. The longer time has gone on through two general elections, the more her achievements have lacked a purpose.

The most important thing is that Clinton's personality is seriously flawed; throughout her career, she has lacked the ability to grasp the political pulse, has been very easily influenced by opponents and allies, and to some extent, does not possess the ability to cope with political pressure.

During the Iraq War, during the 2008 general election, while interfering in Libya, during the coup d'etat in Egypt, and with the killing of the U.S. ambassador in Benghazi, Clinton was very easily influenced by her opponents and allies and easily changed her opinions. This fatal flaw was reflected during this election when, while being pressed on left-wing thinking by her campaign rival Bernie Sanders, she repeatedly echoed his position rather than assert her own viewpoint. After the ambassador in Benghazi was murdered, Clinton appeared out of her mind with panic; in the media’s eyes she was a strong woman, but in reality she had no ability to apply political pressure. This is a serious disadvantage for Clinton compared to Trump, the latter previously having been on the brink of bankruptcy and still managing to weaken the siege against him while being attacked from all sides by both the media and his own party.

Consequently, compared to Trump, Clinton is actually at a great disadvantage; despite plenty of media outlets believing Clinton will undoubtedly win, this could just be the fantasy of wishful thinking. Trump is not only a cruel and unfeeling politician, he is also a deceitfully agile politician, similar to a deep-sea man-eating shark.


随着卡西奇的退出,特朗普正式确定了共和党总统候选人的身份,这也意味着他将代表共和党挑战备受媒体吹捧的民主党候选人希拉里。那么,特朗普能否击败希拉里,赢得通往白宫的入场券呢?

要了解这个问题,就必须理解希拉里与特朗普两名候选人的优劣所在。
首先,希拉里和特朗普一样,备受国内部分民众厌恶。不过,两者不同的就是,希拉里在选民中的恶名,是长年累月沉积下来的。希拉里从政过程中的不诚实、当参议员在伊拉克战争中的莽撞、当国务卿时在阿拉伯之春时的不负责任、与备受选民憎恨的华尔街不清不楚的暧昧,都是板上钉钉的事情,这种恶劣印象是极难被扭转的。

但是,特朗普的种族主义、法西斯、仇视女性、仇视残疾人等恶名并非查有实据,这些恶名部分是特朗普说话放肆,部分则是媒体借机炒作的结果,这种不良观感是相对容易被改变的。这种情况下,希拉里在民众的接受度上,实际上处于相对不利局面,而许多观察家对这种情况缺乏认识。

其次,希拉里与特朗普相比,最大的不足,就是对选民诉求把握能力较差,并难以理解普通民众对社会事物的本质观感,她长于官话应付,却拙于直指问题的要害。希拉里为了争取选民认同,先后抛出“女性内阁”、“外星人解密”等议题,这些话题或许对生活优渥的女性如奥尔布赖特或者闲散无事的外星发烧友有吸引力,但对疲于衣食住行的老百姓,则很难有什么共鸣。

更糟糕的是,当希拉里面对绝望的失业煤矿工人时,却是重复以往的官话应付,这种语言或许能够应付官僚之间的彼此倾轧推诿,却绝难满足民众迫不及待的渴望,这实际上是希拉里被民众厌憎的一个重要原因。

特朗普则不同,他的所有政策都反复强调美国民众的工作、美国民众的收入,他的“Make America Great Again!”本质上迎合了失落大众生活水平,在全球化产业外移和外来移民冲击下出现大幅下滑的现实需求。面对民众对收入的需求,特朗普毫不犹豫地主张设置贸易壁垒防止产业外移、建立围墙禁绝非法移民,创造更多工作机会,不管现实与否,但这极大契合了许多民众切身利益渴望得到满足的心理。

从这个方面来看,希拉里的选民实际上仅仅是出于“女性”“少数族裔”等“议题选民”,而非出于“工作”、“收入”等切身利益的“固化选民”,相比特朗普,希拉里的基本盘实际上相当脆弱,这是很多不了解政治本质的观察家所忽视的,也是希拉里两次大选中,时间越长,战绩越差的根本原因。就像阿道夫·希特勒在《第二本书》中所说的那样:“民众在政治运动的初期往往会被领袖的名声所吸引,但终究决定民众归属的还是民众能否从政治运动中汲取足够的利益。”

最重要的就是,希拉里本人的性格具有严重缺陷,由于她职业生涯一片坦途,她缺乏对政治节奏的把握能力,很容易被对手或盟友所影响,这某种程度上是她不具备承受政治压力的心理素质。

在伊拉克战争中、在2008年大选中、在利比亚干涉上、在埃及政变中、在班加西大使遇害中,希拉里都极其容易受到对手或者盟友的影响,轻易改变自身的见解。最能体现希拉里这一点致命缺陷,就是在这次选举中,她被竞选对手伯尼·桑德斯左翼思潮挤压时,频频跟随对手的主张,而非坚持己见。联系到班加西大使遇害后,希拉里惊慌失措的表现,表明了这个媒体眼中坚强的女人,实际上没有坚强凶狠的政治承压能力。这是希拉里与特朗普相比的严重劣势,后者曾从破产边缘挺过来,并在媒体和党内围攻之中杀出重围。

因此,尽管很多媒体认为希拉里必胜无疑,但她可能并没有多大优势,犹如画家笔下美妙的金丝雀。而特朗普不但是一个残酷无情的商人,也是一个狡诈机敏的政客,犹如深海之中的食人鲨,所过之处,尸骨无存。在这场注定是历史性的对决中,谁将最终胜出,不仅取决于二人接下来的表现,更考验美国人民的选择和智慧。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Australia: Donald Trump Made MAGA a Promise on the Epstein Files. They Are Holding Him to It

China: Blind Faith in US ‘Security Commitments’ Is Short-Sighted

Taiwan: Tariff Showdown Doesn’t Shake Confidence

Sri Lanka: As Albanese Stands Tall, Let’s Stand by Her

Topics

Ireland: US Tariffs Take Shine Off Summer Economic Statement

Israel: Epstein Conspiracy: When the Monster Has a Life of Its Own and Rises Up

Spain: Another Threat from Trump

Canada: Negotiating a Business Deal without Trust

Taiwan: Tariff Showdown Doesn’t Shake Confidence

Australia: Donald Trump Made MAGA a Promise on the Epstein Files. They Are Holding Him to It

Australia: What’s Behind Donald Trump’s Latest Crypto Adventure?

Related Articles

Ireland: US Tariffs Take Shine Off Summer Economic Statement

Israel: Epstein Conspiracy: When the Monster Has a Life of Its Own and Rises Up

Poland: Putin’s Biggest Mistake — Will Trump Force Him to the Negotiating Table?*

Spain: Another Threat from Trump