A Changing America? Obama’s Challenging Foreign Policy

Published in Chunichi Shimbun
(Japan) on 27 April 2016
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Maisha Kuniyuki. Edited by Graeme Stewart-Wilson.
Foreign policy is a part of politics — and history will determine its effectiveness. While Obama’s foreign policy has been called weak, it has also been seen as one that is careful and looks beyond military action. What will history make of Obama’s foreign policy?

President Obama sat in a plush chair in Saudi Arabia’s Erga Palace and met with King Salman in the latter half of April. It is said that relations between the two are growing increasingly strained, as King Salman did not greet the president at the airport.

Seated behind the president were Secretary of State John Kerry, who participated in protests against the Vietnam War, and Ambassador Susan E. Rice, who is said to be more of a scholar than a diplomat and who wore an eye-piercingly red suit. The foreign policy of Obama’s second term in office has been constructed and enacted by the president and these two advisers. It is likely that these three are disliked throughout the world.

A Change From Past Methods

America’s foreign policy is undoubtedly different from what it has been in the past.

Although Obama seemed to pledge retaliation should the Assad regime cross the line of chemical weapons usage, there was no military intervention when President Bashar Assad’s government was suspected of using poison gas in Syria. This noticeably increased the belief that Obama’s policy is weak. However, although there was strong support within the government for aerial bombing, the general public was against military intervention.

Obama has even stated his belief that “America is not the world’s policeman.” That said, international political leaders and scholars have noted that U.S. forces are so much a part of international security that their loss would also mean a loss of international order.

This is certainly true for Russia and China, where the threat of U.S. military action is relied upon to keep the two countries in check. Whether in Ukraine or the South China Sea, America’s looming presence is what narrowly preserves the balance in tense situations. The might of America is still very much needed in the world.

A Solution More Favorable Than Military Force

However, the world is also gradually making some changes.

While the 20th century seems to have been consumed by war, the 21st century seems averse to it. Blood-shedding wars have turned into economic competitions waged with money. And although the boundaries of the nation state have not broken down, despite the recent globalization of many different fields, we have exited a time in which people did the state’s bidding and stepped into one in which the state must listen to its people.

America’s military and the defense industry that supplies it are the best in the world. It might even be said that wars are waged because these weapons are being produced.

President Obama Is Frequently Compared to President Eisenhower

Eisenhower was a notable figure during World War II and commanded battles like the Battle of Normandy as the Supreme Commander Allied Expeditionary Force. After the war, he became the Republican Party’s presidential candidate. Once inaugurated, he ended the Korean War and maintained a hard line against Communism. However, in January 1960 at the age of 70 he made the following farewell address to the public:

“Until the latest of our world conflicts, the United States had no armaments industry. American makers of plowshares could, with time and as required, make swords as well. But now we can no longer risk emergency improvisation of national defense; we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions... Yet we must not fail to comprehend its grave implications… We must never let the weight of this combination endanger our liberties or democratic processes.”

Considering the present economic recession, continued inequalities, and crippling military expenditures, it is not strange that Obama brings to mind Eisenhower’s pragmatic prediction from half a century ago. Above all, Obama is a president who was elected on the promise he made to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. He is a president who was selected not by the elite, but by the people.

The nuclear deal with Iran involves Europe, China and Russia; in other words, it is an international agreement. This deal, however, has incited anger in Israel and Saudi Arabia. The America of the past, after all, was different. There is now a sense of novelty and challenge here, a suggestion that there is a better solution than using isolation to increase strain. In regard to being able to expect a better future, this policy might be thought of as weak, since the restoration of diplomatic relations with Cuba is a victory for diplomacy rather than the military. America, however, is bloodlessly restoring relations with Central and South America, which are important to the defense of the U.S. from Russia and China.

Forward-looking Visit to Hiroshima

As for Japan, the U.S. is considering a visit to Hiroshima where the nuclear bomb was dropped. Ahead of this possible visit, Secretary of State John Kerry paid a visit to the Hiroshima Peace Dome alongside other foreign ministers. This visit could be considered an effort at preventing such tragedies from happening in the future.

Obama is in the process of building the legacy that he will leave after his term as president is complete. When we consider Iran, Cuba and even this possible visit to Hiroshima, we can see that Obama’s legacy may be different from that of past presidents. It may change the very foundations of American foreign policy.

Since we cannot see the results of this foreign policy yet, it is still too soon to judge its effectiveness. There is no doubt, however, that this will be a challenge decided by world history.


アメリカは変わるか オバマ氏の挑戦的外交

 外交は政治の一部であり、結果は歴史が判定する。弱腰外交と呼ばれたアメリカのオバマ外交は果たしてどうか。武断を超えた深謀にも見えるのだが。

 四月下旬、オバマ大統領は、サウジアラビアの宮殿で深々としたいすに座ってサルマン国王と向き合っていた。二人はかつての両国にない不仲といわれ、国王は空港に大統領を出迎えもしなかった。

 大統領の後ろ、控えのいすにはかつてベトナム反戦運動でならしたケリー国務長官、そして外交官というより学者肌ともいわれ、目を射る緋色(ひいろ)のスーツを着込んだライス大統領補佐官。二期目のオバマ外交は大統領とこの二人で組み立てられ、進められている。世界の嫌われ者かもしれない。
過去と異なった様相

 過去のアメリカ外交と明らかに様相は異なった。

 シリアで政府軍の毒ガス使用が疑われた時、もし一線を越えれば武力攻撃を行うと半ば公言していたようでもあったのに、結局は武力に踏み切らない。弱腰論はひときわ大きくなった。しかし政治の世界では空爆支持が多かったとはいえ、民衆の間では武力不介入の声が大きかった。

 オバマ外交は、アメリカはもはや世界の警察官ではない、とも言った。国際政治家や学者の中には、そうは言っても世界に突出した米軍事力なくしては世界の安定は保てないという現実認識は今に至ってもある。

 確かにロシアや中国の力の行使に対しては、頼りになるのはアメリカの軍事力によるにらみである。ウクライナにせよ、南シナ海にせよ、力の緊張はアメリカの見えざる力によってかろうじて均衡を保っている。アメリカの力はまだまだ世界には必要なのである。
軍事よりましな解決

 しかし世界は徐々に変化を遂げてもいる。

 戦争万能のようだった二十世紀と、戦争に嫌気がさした二十一世紀とは違うようだ。血を流す戦争はマネーを競う経済競争となりあらゆる分野ではじまったグローバル化は国民国家の枠組みはゆるがせないにせよ、国民が国家の言いなりだった時代から、国家が国民のいうことをより聞かざるをえない時代に突入している。

 アメリカは世界に冠たる軍産複合国家である。兵器を生産するから戦争を起こさずにはいられない、とまでいわれる。

 オバマ大統領は、アイクことアイゼンハワー大統領をしばしば引き合いに出すそうだ。

 アイクは連合国軍最高司令官としてノルマンディー作戦などを指揮した第二次大戦の英雄。戦後、共和党に大統領候補として引っ張り出され、就任後は朝鮮戦争を休戦させ反共強硬路線を貫いた。ところが一九六一年一月、七十歳の国民向け退任演説でこう述べた。

 <第二次大戦までアメリカに軍需産業はなかった。鋤(すき)をつくっていたアメリカ人は求められれば剣もつくった。しかし今やわれわれは巨大で恒常的な軍需産業をもたざるをえなくなった。警戒せねばならない。それがアメリカの自由や民主的政治プロセスを危うくさせるようなことを許してはならない>

 不景気で、格差が進んで、しかも軍事費が国の財政を苦しめているという現実に直面して、オバマ氏が半世紀前のアイクの現実的予言を思い起こしたとしても不思議はない。何より、アフガンとイラクからの撤兵を公約として選ばれた大統領である。エリートでなく民衆の選んだ大統領である。

 イラン核合意は欧州と中ロを巻き込んでの、いわば世界合意である。イスラエルとサウジは頭に血が上るほど怒った。過去のアメリカとは違ったからだ。そこに新味と挑戦はある。孤立させて緊張を極限化させるよりましな解決はあるはずという態度だ。よりましな未来を期待するという意味ではこれも弱腰かもしれない。キューバ復交は、軍事でなく外交の勝利といってもいい。アメリカの自衛に大切な中南米を流血なしにロシア、中国から取り戻しつつある。
深謀遠慮の広島訪問

 そして日本に対しては、被爆地・広島の訪問を検討している。一足先にケリー国務長官は各国外相を引き連れ原爆ドームの前に立った。ことを起こす前の深謀遠慮にも見える。

 退任前の政治遺産づくり、レガシーづくりといわれる。そうではあろうが、過去の大統領たちのそれとはちがうかもしれない。イランにせよ、キューバにせよ、また広島訪問の可能性にせよ、それらはアメリカ外交の質を根底から変えるようだからである。

 この外交の結果はまだ見えない。だから評価はまだ早いのだが世界史への挑戦であることは疑いないだろう。
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