Trump’s Election Would Alter Cross-Strait Relations

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 6 May 2016
by E-ning Chang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anthony Chantavy. Edited by Kevin Uy.
Since the beginning of the U.S. elections, Donald Trump has been a dark horse with his unmatched popularity and leading approval ratings. Now, Trump is almost guaranteed to become the Republican presidential nominee. However, a lot of foreign media are worried and restless. While they worry about U.S. democracy, they fear more that Trump's isolationism will cause the U.S. to completely withdraw from Asia, letting China sit back and reap the benefits. When that time comes, Taiwan-China relations will be altered without America.

A Financial Times editorial once stated that nobody wants to see Trump become president more than China. China, which has long endured Hillary Clinton's outspoken criticism of its human rights record, is highly supportive of Trump's isolationism. Moreover, even if Trump fails, his isolationism has had an impact on Washington's strategic thinking. This will also heavily influence American activity in the Asia-Pacific region, removing much unwanted military or economic behavior and finally letting Beijing take command.

A Foreign Policy magazine article stated that a vote for Trump is a vote for China. If Trump is elected, it would strengthen the Chinese Communist Party's place in the world, making China responsible for a portion of U.S. obligations. The Wall Street Journal wrote that Trump's presidency would make China great again and take a firm stance in the Asia-Pacific region. Barron’s magazine wrote in a special column that Trump's authoritarian tendencies would drag the U.S. back toward its pre-World War II state and wreck friendships with old allies, giving China a bigger opportunity to get involved in international affairs to enhance its influence. CNN wrote that China dislikes Clinton's lawyerly proclivity, and Beijing finds it hard to deal with lawyers who like to set up rules.

More noteworthy is that The Diplomat said just last year that Trump's Asia policy would be a disaster. If he is elected, first of all, he would withdraw the U.S. military from Asia. Second, he would eliminate U.S. forward presence in Asia, leaving several problems for locals to deal with. It implies that the South China Sea issue will also be left to China and surrounding countries. It implies an alteration in Taiwan-China relations, the probability of China's hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's relations with its neighboring countries left for it and those countries alone to settle, and South Korea's loss of grip on its tensions with North Korea.

If Trump's slogan "Make America Great Again" really is built on isolationism from the international game, then the U.S. has fallen into a more painful abyss in every way.


美國大選開始以來,川普就以黑馬姿態,人氣爆棚,支持率一路領先。走到現在,川普幾乎可以確定成為代表共和黨參選的總統候選人。然而多家外媒都對此感到憂心忡忡,在擔憂美國民主的同時,更擔心川普的孤立主義會讓美國徹底退出亞洲,讓中國坐享其成。屆時,台灣與中國的關係,也因為不再有美國的介入而變化。

《金融時報》在社論中表示,最希望看到川普當選的莫過於中國。長期飽受來自於希拉蕊歐美菁英領導人關於人權批評的中國,對於川普的孤立主義是非常支持的。而且,即使川普失敗了,其保護主義的思維也對華盛頓的對外戰略產生了一定的影響。而這也將大大地影響美國在亞太的活動,撤退許多不該有的軍事或經濟行為,最終使北京坐穩亞太龍頭。

《外交政策》也說過,投給川普一票就是投給中國。文中表示,川普當選的話會提高中共領導人的世界地位,讓中國去承擔部分美國不應該但卻被迫盡的義務。《華爾街日報》也說過,川普的當選,會讓中國重新偉大,站穩亞太。美國《巴倫》也在專欄中表示,川普的獨裁性,會把美國拉回二戰前的狀態,破壞美國與傳統盟友的關係,讓中國有更大的機會介入國際事務,提升自身影響力。CNN也表示過,中國不喜歡希拉蕊的律師作風,北京不喜歡與愛講規則的律師打交道。

更值得注意一點的是,外交分析網《外交家》更在去年時就說過,川普的亞洲政策是個災難。如果他當選的話,首先,他會將亞洲的美軍撤回美國。再來,會放棄美國在亞太已插手的事務,讓許多問題交回給當地人去解決;意味著南海議題也將交還給中國與地區國家解決、意味著台灣與中國關係的變質、意味著中國在亞太獨霸的可能性、意味著日本與鄰國的關係也必須交還給日本和其他國家解決、意味著南北韓問題的南韓失去了後台。

若川普的競選口號「再次塑造強有力的美國」(Make America Great Again)真是建構在孤立主義上從國際遊戲中退出的話,那麼美國各方面都肯定會陷入更痛苦的深淵中。

(中時電子報)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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