Trump’s Candidacy Reflects the US’ Current Plight at Home and Abroad

Published in Youth Daily News
(Taiwan) on 9 May 2016
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Daniel Lin. Edited by Kevin Uy.
The U.S. presidential primary nomination has now undergone a dramatic change. Candidate Donald Trump, who has been a constant source of controversy within the Republican Party, continues to surmount all difficulties. After winning primary elections in five northeastern U.S. states, he recently won a Midwest primary in Indiana, bringing in even more electoral votes and dashing the hopes of his competitors who had originally hoped to block his nomination. His other two competitors, Cruz and Kasich, announced in succession that they would end their campaigns; thus Trump has become the sole presidential candidate for the Republican Party. He will certainly secure the nomination and contend with the most likely candidate for the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, for the presidency.

Trump’s abrupt rise fell below most people’s radars. He had just joined the Republican Party in 2012 and prior to this election had never held public office and had no political experience. Furthermore, he has been prone to committing gaffes during the election process, maliciously attacking other candidates and the media, raising inconceivable political stances and abundantly displaying his lack of political cultivation and experience. However, he has still been able to continue to win Republican primaries, defeating candidates with more political experience and prestige, defeating George W. Bush’s brother, among others, and finally overwhelming other candidates with his momentum to become the Republican nominee.

Trump’s candidacy reflects the United States' current predicament at home and abroad. During President Obama’s eight-year term, although the economy has recovered somewhat, this has not spread to the general public and working class. These people have been subjected to unemployment, suffered low wages and stressful lives, and have seen the gap between the rich and the poor grow. Thus, they have taken out their dissatisfaction on the liberalization of U.S. trade policy — especially when it comes to illegal immigration, which they perceive as stealing jobs and causing manufacturing and public security problems. They also blame foreign countries, including China, for dumping cheaply made goods into the U.S. market. Internationally, the United States' position is sliding in the face of the emergence of Russia and China. When it comes to the Middle East and the expansion of the Islamic State, not only have they beheaded American hostages, but they have produced terrorist attacks in the U.S. and anti-Muslim sentiment has also been aroused in a part of the U.S. populace. With regard to Americans receiving higher education and economically secure lives, they can still support Obama’s trade and security policies, but as far as middle and lower class citizens are concerned, free trade policies and illegal immigration are the exact source of their troubles.

Each of Trump’s extreme positions — building a large wall at the U.S.-Mexico border to stop Central and South American stowaways and narcotics; limiting imported products from China to protect American industry and labor; taking a hardline with other countries on trade negotiations to protect benefits for American trade; cracking down on the Islamic State group to defend U.S. security abroad; limiting Muslim immigration to the U.S. to protect domestic security – are simple, straightforward and easy to get. Although they deviate from traditional American values and policy, they are endorsed by the middle and lower classes of the United States. As a result, the Republican primary has received much support from grassroots and fundamentalist voters. As far as Trump’s foul mouth goes, that’s already become a trivial issue for voters, even to the point that it seems he is saying what he really thinks, and it's not enough to influence their determined support. Simply put, the rise of Trump represents the rise conservatism, nationalism and protectionism in the American populace as well as pushback against globalization, free trade, immigration, terrorism and the rise of developing nations.

Trump has already created an outstanding complication for the Republican Party. His unconventional style and political positions have not received the blessings of forces higher up in the Republican Party. They originally placed their hopes on nobody having the required 1,237 electoral votes at the Republican convention as the reasoning for consulting or trading votes to choose some other candidate to stand in for the election. However, with regard to every candidate having just withdrawn their candidacy, Trump can confidently obtain the nomination. If the Republican elites try to rub out Trump, this will lead to intense pushback from grassroots voters, leading to the collapse of the Republican Party. However, if compelled to nominate Trump there is also the possibility that this will lead to those in the party who do not endorse Trump’s positions defecting and voting for the Democrats, or not voting at all. Despite Trump being able to rely on extreme stances to defeat his competitors in the party, he may not be able to gain majority support in the general election and would thus cause the Republican Party to lose the election. When choosing the lesser of two evils, the approach of the Republican elites is changing. After all, Trump is the candidate the majority of Republican voters have endorsed, and he has a high profile domestically. If the Republican Party does not endorse him, thus leading to chaos in the party, this will undoubtedly cost them the election and hand power back to the Democrats for four more years. Nominating Trump at least gives them a fighting chance. Due to this, the Republican National Committee Chair Reince Priebus has already started calling Trump the presumptive nominee and has called on the whole party to completely unify and win the election.

Although the Democrats still have two candidates competing for the nomination, Hillary Clinton is way ahead of Sanders in delegate votes and should have no problem clinching the nomination, which will make it a showdown between her and Trump. Currently, the majority of U.S. opinion polls put Clinton ahead of Trump. However, riding a trend of anti-globalization and anti-establishmentarianism among the U.S. populace, Trump still holds a substantial base of support and excels in seizing on issues and promotion. Once the two are officially competing for office, Trump will set his sights on Clinton and maybe shape into a stifling force. Clinton herself has many negative points, including “emailgate” and excessively close ties with the financial sector on Wall Street. Whether those in the party who support Sanders will completely back Clinton is also questionable. Because of this, it is premature to infer who will be elected president at this moment. The real competition will begin once the respective candidates from each party are officially nominated. When that time comes, our country, along with the rest of the world, will closely watch how this election unfolds.


社論:川普的出線 反映美當前國內外困境

 美國總統初選提名出現戲劇性的變化,共和黨內爭議不斷的候選人川普持續過關斬將,繼贏得美國東北部5州初選後,近日又贏得中部印第安那州的初選,囊括了更多的選舉人票,使得黨內競爭者原本想阻止他獲得提名的希望落空,其他兩位候選人克魯茲及凱西克相繼宣布退出選舉,川普於是成為共和黨內唯一的總統候選人,將篤定獲得提名,與民主黨最有可能的候選人希拉蕊角逐總統大位。
 川普的崛起之路跌破許多人的眼鏡,他是2012年才加入共和黨,在此次參加初選之前從未擔任公職,無任何從政經驗,而且在初選過程中口無遮攔,惡意攻擊其他候選人及媒體,提出許多匪夷所思的政治主張,充分顯示他的缺乏政治經驗及素養,但是卻能持續地贏得共和黨內的初選,擊敗許多更有政治經驗及聲望的候選人,包括前美國總統小布希的弟弟等人,終至聲勢壓倒其他候選人,成為黨內唯一的候選人。
 川普的出線反映當前美國的國內、外困境,在歐巴馬總統8年任內,雖然經濟有所復甦,但是仍未普及到一般社會大眾及勞工階級,這些人飽受失業及低薪所苦,生活壓力大,又看到國內貧富差距的擴大,遂將自己的不滿遷怒於美國的自由化貿易政策,尤其是外國及中國大陸的廉價商品傾銷,以及外來的不法移民,認為他們搶奪了工作及製造治安問題。在國際上,美國的國際地位下滑,遭到俄羅斯及中國大陸崛起的挑戰;在中東地區則有伊斯蘭國的擴張,不只斬首美國人質,並在美國境內製造恐怖攻擊事件,部分美國民眾也興起一股反穆斯林的情緒。對於受過高等教育及經濟生活穩定的部分美國人民而言,仍能支持歐巴馬政府的經貿及安全政策,但是對於中下階層的人而言,自由貿易政策及非法移民正是造成他們生活困境的來源。
 川普的各項極端主張,例如在美墨邊界築起高牆以阻止中南美偷渡客及販毒、對於中國大陸出口產品限制以保護美國產業及勞工、與他國貿易協商強硬以保護美國經貿利益、對於伊斯蘭國份子嚴厲打擊以保護美國海外安全、限制穆斯林移民美國以維護國內安全等,雖然悖離傳統美國價值及政策,卻簡單直接,容易獲得中、下階層美國民眾的認同,也因此在共和黨內的初選中獲得許多基層民眾與基本教義選民的支持。至於川普口出穢言對他們而言已是小節,不足以影響其支持的決心,甚至認為是敢於說真話的表現。質言之,川普的崛起代表美國民眾保守主義、民族主義及保護主義的抬頭,以及對於全球化、自由貿易、外來移民、恐怖主義及新興大國的反彈。
 川普的一枝獨秀已造成共和黨的困擾,他的特立獨行風格與政策主張,並不受到共和黨黨內高層勢力的青睞,他們原本寄望在共和黨大會中以無人獲得提名所需的1237張候選人票為理由,採取協商或換票的方式推舉其他候選人代表出馬。但是以目前各候選人相繼退選的情勢而言,川普將篤定獲得提名,如果黨內大老試圖搓掉川普,將引發基層選民的強烈反彈,導致共和黨的分崩離析。然而,如果被迫提名川普,也有可能導致黨內不認同川普主張的人倒戈投向民主黨或拒不投票,更何況川普雖然能靠著極端主張擊敗黨內其他對手,卻可能在大選中無法獲得多數選民的支持而使得共和黨敗選。在兩害相權取其輕的情況下,共和黨內高層的態度也開始轉變,畢竟川普是黨內選民多數能夠認同的候選人,在國內也有極高的知名度,如果共和黨不提名他而導致黨的紛亂,在大選中必敗無疑,將把政權再拱手讓給民主黨四年,提名川普至少還有放手一搏的機會。因此,共和黨全國委員會主席蒲博思已開始稱呼川普是可能的共和黨提名人,並呼籲全黨團結一致以贏得選舉。
 目前民主黨內雖然還有兩位候選人在競逐,但希拉蕊在黨代表人數票方面已遙遙領先桑德斯,獲得提名應無問題,未來將是她與川普兩人的對決。目前美國多數民調仍然是希拉蕊領先川普,但以美國民眾目前反全球化及反體制的趨勢,川普仍然握有不少基本的支持票,而且他擅長掌握議題及造勢,一旦兩人正式競選開始,川普將會把矛頭指向希拉蕊,也可能形成壓制的力量。希拉蕊本人也有許多負面的問題,包括郵電門事件及與華爾街金融圈關係太密切等,黨內支持桑德斯的選民是否會全力支持她,也尚有疑問。因此,此時論斷誰會當選總統仍然言之過早,真正的競賽將在兩人各自在黨內獲得正式提名後才開始,屆時包含我國在內的全球各國,也將密切注視這場選戰的發展。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Pakistan: Trump’s Gaza Blueprint Unfolds

Mexico: The Network of Intellectuals and Artists in Defense of Venezuela and President Nicholás Maduro

Israel: From the Cities of America to John Bolton: Trump’s Vendetta Campaign against Opponents Reaches New Heights

Ireland: Irish Examiner View: Would We Miss Donald Trump and Would a Successor Be Worse?

Peru: Blockade ‘For Now’

Topics

Peru: Blockade ‘For Now’

Japan: US President and the Federal Reserve Board: Harmonious Dialogue To Support the Dollar

Austria: The EU Must Recognize That a Tariff Deal with Trump Is Hardly Worth Anything

Mexico: The Network of Intellectuals and Artists in Defense of Venezuela and President Nicholás Maduro

Hong Kong: Cordial Cross-Strait Relations Will Spare Taiwan Trump’s Demands, Says Paul Kuoboug Chang

Germany: The Tariffs Have Side Effects — For the US Too*

Ireland: We Must Stand Up to Trump on Climate. The Alternative Is Too Bleak To Contemplate

Canada: Carney Takes Us Backward with Americans on Trade

Related Articles

Peru: Blockade ‘For Now’

Japan: US President and the Federal Reserve Board: Harmonious Dialogue To Support the Dollar

Germany: The Tariffs Have Side Effects — For the US Too*

Ireland: We Must Stand Up to Trump on Climate. The Alternative Is Too Bleak To Contemplate

Canada: Carney Takes Us Backward with Americans on Trade