Trump’s Wall

Published in Excélsior
(Mexico) on 1 June 2016
by Francisco Guerrero Aguirre (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Louisa Devine. Edited by Danielle Tezcan.
Donald Trump has said that he will build a wall of concrete and steel, 1,609 kilometers long and around 15 meters high, along the border between the U.S. and Mexico. He also insists that our government will cover all the costs for this wall.

“Trump’s Wall” encapsulates a xenophobic and isolationist viewpoint that is deeply rooted in the minds of millions of North Americans. However, from a practical point of view, this ignominious wall is unfeasible, ridiculous, and completely based in fantasy.

It was first mentioned in a New York Times article published on May 20. The article was virtually ignored by the Mexican media, which were more interested in covering the “mud-slinging match” into which our local election battles had descended.

The article discussed the operational implications of the construction of “Trump’s Wall.” Building it would be a nightmare in financial, logistic, administrative and legal terms. A 12-meter high concrete wall, plus three additional meters below ground-level, would cost around $26 billion. The logistics of it would be complex, even more so when you consider the ambitious timeline of four years for its construction.

The work would involve thousands of people who would have to move closer to the construction areas in order to meet the deadline. It is unknown which federal agencies would be involved in the project, how these would coordinate with one another throughout the process, and who would be responsible for the maintenance costs once it was completed.

There is no justification for “Trump’s Wall.” According to information published by the National Survey of the Demographic Dynamic, between 2009 and 2014, 1 million Mexicans and their families left the U.S. for Mexico. The Pew Research Center estimates that this resulted in a net loss of 140,000 from 2009 to 2014. That is to say that there are more Mexicans emigrating from the U.S. than immigrating to our northern neighbor.

It is logical that Trump has chosen to sell the promise of a wall during his campaign. A vast majority of Republicans have bought it. According to a survey carried out by the Pew Research Center on the May 11, 2016, 84 percent of those who support Trump for the GOP nomination are in favor of building a wall along the border. That means that almost 9 out of every 10 Trump supporters want the wall. Even 56 percent of Republicans who do not support Trump support the construction of the wall.

Evaluation

The hope is that on a national level, voters who do not trust Trump (two-thirds of the electorate, according to The New York Times and CBS News) will prevail at the polls in November. Hopefully, the 57 percent of the electorate who believe that immigrants strengthen the country through their work and their talent will win out over the 35 percent who feel that they are a burden, as the Pew figures show.

The construction of “Trump’s Wall” is a false promise, and is unrealistic. The financial, logistic, administrative and legal costs are complex and unsustainable. However, Trump has already sold and built his invisible wall, and that is much more dangerous.

Trump is just one person. What is worrying is the sentiment felt by the significant part of the electorate he represents. It is a phenomenon that will undoubtedly surpass Trump as an individual and even the Republican Party as a democratic institution. Even if Hillary Clinton wins in the end, this phenomenon will be present in the U.S. for years to come. This political and cultural wall is what should really worry us.


Donald Trump ha dicho que construirá un muro de concreto y acero de 1,609 kilómetros y alrededor de 15 metros de altura en la frontera ente EU y México. Ha insistido en que la factura de la obra será pagada en su totalidad por nuestro gobierno.

El Muro Trump sintetiza una visión xenofóbica y aislacionista que se encuentra enraizada en la mente de millones de norteamericanos. Sin embargo, desde un punto de vista práctico, esta muralla ignominiosa es inviable, ridícula y fantasiosa.

Lo anterior quedó ilustrado en un reportaje de The New York Times del 20 mayo, mismo que fue virtualmente ignorado por los medios mexicanos, más interesados en la cobertura del “festival de lodo” en el que se han convertido nuestras contiendas electorales locales.

En la nota se detallan las implicaciones operativas de la construcción del Muro Trump. Erigirlo sería una pesadilla en términos monetarios, logísticos, administrativos y legales. Un muro de concreto de 12 metros de altura —más 3 metros bajo tierra— costaría alrededor de 26 mil millones de dólares. La logística sería compleja, más aún con un tiempo de entrega ambicioso de cuatro años.

Se requeriría el trabajo de miles de personas que tendrían que mudarse cerca de las zonas de construcción para cumplir con los plazos. No se sabe, por ejemplo, cuáles serían las agencias federales involucradas en construir el proyecto, cómo sería la coordinación entre éstas durante el proceso, y quién se haría cargo de los costos de mantenimiento una vez finalizado.

El Muro Trump carece de justificación. De acuerdo con información publicada por la Encuesta Nacional de la Dinámica Demográfica, de 2009 a 2014, un millón de mexicanos y sus familias abandonaron EU hacia México. El Pew Research Center estima que esto resulta en una pérdida neta de 140,000 entre 2009-2014. Es decir, hay más mexicanos emigrando de EU que inmigrando al vecino del norte.

Tiene lógica que Trump haya optado por vender la promesa de un muro durante la campaña. Una gran mayoría de republicanos la han comprado. Según una encuesta elaborada por el Pew Research Center del 11 de mayo de 2016, el 84% de los que apoya a Trump para la nominación del GOP está a favor de construir un muro en la frontera. Esto significa que casi nueve de 10 partidarios de Trump quieren el Muro Trump. Incluso, un 56% de republicanos que no apoya a Trump, también apoya su construcción.

BALANCE

La esperanza es que en el agregado nacional, los votantes que no confían en Trump, dos tercios del total del electorado, según la última encuesta de The New York Times y CBS News, predomine en las urnas en noviembre. Se espera que el 57% del electorado que opina que los inmigrantes fortalecen al país a través de su talento y trabajo, se imponga sobre el 35% que opina que son una carga, de acuerdo a cifras de Pew.

La construcción del Muro Trump es una promesa falsa, poco realista. Los costos financieros, logísticos, administrativos y legales son complejos y poco sustentables. Sin embargo, Trump ya vendió y construyó un muro invisible, mucho más letal y peligroso.

Trump es tan solo una persona. Lo preocupante es el sentimiento de gran parte del electorado que él representa. Es un fenómeno que sin duda lo sobrepasa a él como individuo y al propio Partido Republicano como institución democrática. Aunque finalmente gane Hillary Clinton, este fenómeno seguirá presente en EU en años por venir. Ese muro político y cultural es del que realmente deberíamos preocuparnos.
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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