No Reason to Rush Labeling the Orlando Shooting as Religiously Motivated

Published in Beijing News
(China) on 15 June 2016
by Li Bingbing (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
With life's warmth yet lingering on the bodies of the victims in the Orlando shooting, the imminent U.S. general election has instilled the incident with weighty political connotations and made it a veritable battleground between the two major U.S. political parties' candidates.

Three days have passed since the attack, but as further details slowly come to light in the media, the motives of shooter Omar Mateen have only become more nebulous.

In an interview, Mateen's father has denied his son was mentally ill or that his actions were prompted by religious extremist ideology, and he instead linked his son's behavior to anti-homosexual sentiment. Mateen's ex-wife has also claimed he "wasn't very religious," seeking to shift the focus away from that subject.

Complicating the matter, many witnesses have established that Mateen frequented the Pulse gay nightclub he later attacked, and gay dating apps were also found on his phone.

However, according to the FBI, an eyewitness revealed that Mateen had watched videos of Anwar al-Awlaki, a top leader in al-Qaida's Yemen branch; consequently, the influence of religious extremism cannot be ruled out in this case. The Islamic State has also claimed responsibility for the shooting via its Amaq news agency. Moreover, during a period when Mateen was placed under FBI investigation, he indicated he had been angered by co-workers' derisive comments about his Muslim background. Such factors make it very difficult to confirm the motivations behind his crime or to give the incident an accurate classification.

President Barack Obama has done his utmost to avoid labeling the shooting a "terrorist" attack, calling it an "act of terror and an act of hate" in a televised national address on the afternoon of June 12 and referring to the incident as a case of "homegrown extremism" on the following day.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has taken a similarly cautious approach. In a speech, she referred to the incident as an example of action by "lone wolves," and denied Mateen carried out the attack under direct orders from the Islamic State group. Meanwhile, her challenger, Republican candidate Donald Trump, went on Twitter immediately after the shooting to point fingers at Islamic extremist ideology, reiterating his proposal to ban Muslims from entering the United States. He believes doubling down on immigration controls is a key component for putting domestic terrorism in check.

And so, with life's warmth yet lingering on the bodies of the victims in the Orlando shooting, the imminent U.S. general election has instilled the incident with weighty political connotations and made it a veritable battleground between the two major U.S. political parties' candidates. While much evidence has yet to be uncovered, both parties' classifications of the incident have played out along the lines of their differing identity politics stances. Clinton has placed her sights on the issue of gun control, questioning how the FBI-investigated Mateen acquired multiple firearms, while Trump – or perhaps one should say the Republican Party backing him – has strongly opposed gun control and criticized the Obama administration for being too soft on Muslims.

It should come as no surprise that the shooting and the underlying security issues will become an integral part of the election story throughout the coming months. With respect to the short term, the shock from the attack will provide Trump with a small uptick in support due to his hard-line stances on immigration and religion. However, as the voting blocs of both parties have tended to be relatively stable, how the general election will be shaped by these events in the long term is yet to be seen, and moderate votes will be the key that unlocks each candidate's path to victory. But if the shooting is confirmed to be a "terrorist" incident, Clinton will be put on the back foot when it comes to the anti-terrorism debate, and the death of the U.S. ambassador in Benghazi during Clinton's tenure as secretary of state will become an even more vulnerable point of attack for her opponents.


  奥兰多枪击事件受害者尸骨未寒,但伴随着美国大选的临近,该事件成为两党候选人互相攻讦的焦点议题,被赋予了更多政治内涵。
  奥兰多枪击案过去三天了,更多细节被媒体披露出来,但枪手奥马尔的动机却愈发扑朔迷离。
  奥马尔的父亲日前接受采访,否认其子有精神疾病以及受宗教极端思想驱使,而是试图将其行动与“反同性恋”倾向挂钩,其前妻亦称其“对宗教不是特 别虔诚”,又试图将其从宗教的焦点转移。多名目击者则证明其曾多次出没该同性恋夜总会——“脉搏”夜总会,其手机上还有“同性恋交友软件”。
  不过,FBI称,有目击证人揭示奥马尔曾观看“基地组织”也门分支最高领导安瓦尔·奥拉基的视频,因此不能排除宗教极端思想的影响;“伊斯兰 国”通过其所属“阿玛琪”(Amaq)通讯社宣称对“奥兰多枪击案”负责。此外,此前在接受FBI调查中,奥马尔曾表示其同事嘲笑其“穆斯林”身份,使其 感觉到被冒犯。凡此种种,让我们很难确认奥马尔的犯案动机以及给该事件准确定性。
  美国总统奥巴马竭力避免将其定性为“恐怖主义行动”,其在6月12日下午发表全国电视讲话时将该事件称之为“恐怖”和“仇杀犯罪”,13日又将该事件定性为“本土极端主义案例”。
  民主党总统候选人希拉里同样表态谨慎。希拉里在演讲中将其称之为“独狼”行动,否认其行为受“伊斯兰国”指示。但其竞争对手——共和党候选人特 朗普,在枪击事件发生后,第一时间在“推特”上直接将矛头转向伊斯兰极端主义,重提其“禁止穆斯林进入美国”的移民方案。在其看来,加强移民控制是遏止国 内恐怖主义的关键组成部分。
  奥兰多枪击事件受害者尸骨未寒,但伴随着美国大选的临近,该事件成为两党候选人互相攻讦的焦点议题,赋予了更多政治内涵。在没有更多证据呈现之 前,两党对该事件的定性由于其自身政治立场的不同而被“对号入座”。希拉里将关注点放在“控枪”议题上,质疑受到FBI调查的奥马尔如何成功获得不止一把 枪支;而特朗普,或者说其背后的共和党,强烈反对“控枪”,指责奥巴马当局对穆斯林过于宽容。
  不出意外,该事件及其背后的安全议题将会成为纵贯未来几个月的大选的焦点。短期来看,受该事件的冲击,在移民和宗教问题上立场强硬的特朗普的支 持率将会出现小幅上涨;但从长远来看,由于双方的选民结构已经趋于固定,如何争取中间选民则是候选人们获胜的关键,而这一议题究竟如何影响大选,则有待于 更多细节披露。一旦该行动确定为“恐怖主义”事件,希拉里的反恐立场则趋于被动,其担任国务卿期间的“美国驻班加西大使遇袭事件”将会更多被拿来作为攻击 的对象。
  李冰冰(媒体人)
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