The Winners and Losers of Orlando’s June 11 Incident

Published in Sina Blog
(China) on 14 June 2016
by Tao Duanfang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Calvin Blackburn. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
in an LGBT nightclub in Orlando, Florida, there occurred a horrible terrorist attack. At 2 a.m., 29-year-old Afghan-American Omar Mateen, with an AR-15 semi-automatic rifle in his hands and handguns at his side, charged into a “Latin Flavor” special event being held that night with more than 350 participants (among them were many homosexual, bisexual and transgendered people) and went on a shooting rampage. However, after he took hostages, he entered into a standoff with police who rushed to the scene in an action that lasted until nearly 4 a.m. until Omar was finally shot to death. According to police reports, the current casualty toll stands at 50 deaths, and 53 injured at the hands of this gunman. This mass shooting incident has caused the greatest number of casualties on American soil since the 9/11 attacks.

There is no greater loser in this incident than the domestic counterterrorist system which the government has presented with pride. Even though there is no lack of controversy within the American political forum, media and general public over counterterrorist measures, laws and specific acts – for example there are people who are not pleased with the government and intelligence agencies using counterterrorism as an excuse to expand their power and peer into citizens’ private lives, and there are people who complain about the inconvenience caused in wake of the strengthening of counterterrorist measures, “prisoner abuse in Guantanamo,” “the Snowden incident,” and even “the Apple unlocking crisis,” all of which have often led to controversy – nearly everyone will admit that since 9/11, the United States has indeed established the world’s most rigorous domestic counterterrorist network, managing to defeat a great number of terrorist plots aimed at American soil. It is because of this that not long ago, the U.S. Department of State recently issued a travel warning to U.S. citizens headed for Europe prior to the opening of the Euro Cup, saying that they are “alerting U.S. citizens to the risk of potential terrorist attacks throughout Europe” (equivalent to simultaneously hinting that “American territory is safe”). This warning gave no recognition whatsoever to America’s European allies.

At the present moment the Euro Cup is in full swing, and under the rigorous security of the French, only one group terrorist incident has occurred. This “bloody tragedy” of rising trouble on the streets is in fact only melees among each country’s fans. On the other hand, in the “safe American territory,” there has occurred a lone-wolf terrorist incident that makes one’s head hurt and pokes a big hole in this notion of safety in America. For the trust vested in the U.S. government’s domestic counterterrorism efforts, this is undoubtedly a big attack.

The occurrence of the June 11 incident also has been awkward for an Obama who has flaunted his “decisive victory” over counterterrorism, and who has been determined to reduce America’s military presence in places like the Middle East and Afghanistan on the grounds of this success. Against the backdrop of Orlando’s painful injuries, in recent days Obama has invariably avoided the topic of using U.S. ground forces, but has put great effort into playing with the idea of the “casualty-free counterterrorism” of “air strikes from double aircraft carriers” in the eastern Mediterranean, a game that might turn into a laughable and high priced affair; this kind of “avoiding the serious and pursuing the easy” method might allow American troops to be casualty-free, but it has yet to allow U.S. citizens to be casualty-free.*

Naturally, Obama has a means of spinning this that he knows like the back of his hand – interpreting this incident as a “tragedy caused by the over-prevalence of guns,” and then promoting a discussion of the importance of gun control.* In one smooth motion, this places the responsibility for this tragedy on the shoulders of those who have held up his efforts on gun control: the Republicans. After last year’s Dec. 2 massacre in San Bernardino, Obama acted the same way (indeed, in the last eight years, it only took a large incident involving guns for Obama to respond with the same script). If the details are constantly changing, will this method be able to effectively resolve these issues?

The FBI was the first government agency to label this incident a “terrorist” act, but in reality this well-known intelligence agency is sadly also one of the losers in the June 11 incident. Since 9/11, many FBI programs have come under pressure from criticism that the FBI has “infringed on freedoms,” but the FBI has nonetheless steadfastly moved forward with these controversial methods. In its defense, the reasoning has been that through these programs they “can once again take control of the situation of terrorist attacks,” “facilitate early warning,” and the FBI is acting because these programs “might increase our factor of counterterrorist security.”* Yet, in wake of the June 11 shooting, this kind of self-defense reasoning is noticeably unpersuasive. To exacerbate things further, an official with the Florida branch of the FBI admits that in truth, in 2013 and 2014, the FBI carried out two investigations on Mateen on suspicion of him being involved in terrorism, but concluding that there was insufficient evidence and that he did not pose a real threat, the FBI let him off the hook. In 2009, U.S. intelligence agencies paid no heed to repeated warnings from a Nigerian banker that “my son has inclinations toward terrorism,” with that Nigerian banker’s son turning out to be Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the man who nearly blew up Northwest Airlines’ Flight 253 on Christmas of that year.*

Were this predicament to occur once more, many people would face the difficult question of how intelligence agencies that are costly to support and require a large number of personnel have allowed things to end up like this? Naturally, the FBI and other organizations might all draw good fortune from bad, and as a result of this incident’s occurrence obtain even more funding and freedom of action.

Hillary Clinton, one of the two popular candidates in the U.S. presidential election, was very cautious in the wake of this incident, choosing her words carefully as she condemned “the actions that led to tragedy.”* Yet, at the very least, she avoided using definite terms such as “terrorist,” so that even some American observers said it was as if she were attempting to place the emphasis on “homophobia” and not on “terrorism.” She is likely to have done this to avoid provoking her base supporters, and to take the opportunity to express good will to her large base of homosexual supporters. All of this bears risks: to avoid the clearly prevalent issue of terrorism might very likely offend the great number of citizens who are sensitive about security, not to mention the fact that many people already have criticized her flip-flopping and two-faced approach to the issue of terrorism. As to her performance on the matters of the Middle East while she served as secretary of state, and the responsibility she ought to bear for the spread of fundamentalist terrorism due to her record, there have been many discussions.

The biggest winner in this incident has unfortunately been the group that claimed responsibility for it, the Islamic State. However, there are clear signs that this incident was a lone-wolf attack and that the suspect Mateen was brainwashed online and is at best chalked up as a marginal player in the international terrorist network even though he cannot even really be counted among this peripheral group, his terrorist attack’s operation very likely being independently planned and carried out.

Nevertheless, prior to carrying out his violent attack, Mateen dialed 911 to proclaim his loyalty to the Islamic State group and made many pro-Islamic State group statements online. The Islamic State group naturally cannot relinquish such a great return on an investment they never made. Although they paid nothing, they are taking this all the way to bank, with media attention and “victory in battle.” Also, this attack has helped to expand the awareness of terrorism, seizing the pulpit from al-Qaida and other terrorist extremist organizations, as well as being able to supplement terrorist equipment and manpower. This is very important for the survival and development of international terrorist groups. Of course, Mateen also professed his approval and support for al-Qaida, and the terrorist organization will sadly be remiss to let go of the opportunity provided by this situation.

However, there is bad fortune lurking in good, and this cheap and ready-made opportunity also means that they need to bear a part of the imminent consequences of America’s anger.

And another victor from this might just be the Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump. After the incident occurred, the man who talked with a “big mouth” on the issue of counterterrorism immediately shouted out, “I called it,” and then aggressively demanded that Obama resign. The blood and life lost in Orlando led to him forget about any risk of his political incorrectness, once again proclaiming with his hate speech that Muslims ought to be banned from entering the United States. He need only project a knowing expression, and he can reap a “box office bonus.”

Moreover, the Republicans do not need to act like the Democrats, who remain silent about the terrorist nature of this incident, and Republicans may well take this opportunity to fiercely denounce the Obama administration’s counterterrorist measures as ineffective. And on account of the nature of the groups that have been harmed, and the special nature of where this occurred, a Republican party that has consistently been prickly on the issue of homosexuals might have just received a great gift – right now they do not even need to bring up the dilemma of homosexuality, they only need to continually stress “safety” and “homosexual victims” to extract a great deal of the “rainbow people’s” votes from the Democratic Party. Naturally, there has likewise been a degree of overkill on this issue, and American society as well as the electorate have both gone through “fast-foodization” and are forgetful. Emotions such as anger and sympathy come like a flood, but fly away just as fast. Things that are a big topic quickly fade away the moment they spring up. But as the issues resound beside traces of blood that have been diluted, the situation might just produce the opposite result.

*Editor’s note: These quotes, accurately translated, could not be verified.


奥兰多“6.11”事件的赢家和输家
6月12日,美国佛罗里达州奥兰多市LGBT夜总会发生恶性恐怖袭击事件,29岁的美籍阿富汗裔青年奥马尔.马迪恩(Omar Mateen)在当天凌晨2时许手持AR-15半自动步枪,身佩手枪,杀入当时正举办有350多人参加(其中许多是同性恋者、双性恋者和变性人)的“拉丁风情”专场活动的夜总会,疯狂射击、劫持人质后与闻讯赶到的警方对峙近4小时才被最终击毙,截止目前据警方通报,事件已造成包括枪手本人在内50人死亡,53人受伤。这是“9.11”后美国本土发生的伤亡人数最多的一起渉枪暴恐事件。

这一事件最大的输家莫过于美国朝野引为自豪的本土反恐体系。尽管对于某些反恐措施、法案和具体行为,美国政坛、媒体圈和公众不乏争议,如有人对政府和情报部门借反恐扩大权力、窥探公民隐私不满,有人对加强反恐措施后造成的种种不便怨声载道,“关塔那摩虐囚”、“斯诺登事件”乃至“苹果解锁风波”更不时引发一番争论,但几乎所有人都承认,自“9.11”后美国的确建立起全球最严密的本土反恐体系,并挫败了绝大多数有组织的、针对美国本土目标的恐怖袭击企图。正因如此,不久前美国国务院才敢于在欧锦赛开赛前公开对拟往欧洲旅行的美国公民发布“小心当地发生恐怖袭击危险”的旅行警示(这等于同时暗示“美国本土是安全的”),丝毫不给欧洲盟友面子。此刻欧锦赛如火如荼,法国在严密安保下至今只发生了一起暴恐事件,街头更棘手的“流血惨剧”反倒是各国球迷互殴,而“安全的美国本土”却被令人头疼的“独狼式暴恐”捅了个大窟窿,这对于美国朝野的本土反恐信心,无疑会是个重大打击。

“6.11”事件的发生也会令一直炫耀自己反恐“决定性胜利”,并以此为由执意减少美国在中东、阿富汗等地反恐军事存在的奥巴马感到尴尬。在奥兰多惨痛伤亡的衬托下,奥巴马近期一味回避陆地用兵,却劳师动众地在东地中海玩“双航母空袭”的“零伤亡反恐”,就可能成为一种可笑的、代价高昂的游戏——这种避重就轻的做法或许可以让美国士兵“零伤亡”,但未必能让美国公民也如此。当然,奥巴马也有自己驾轻就熟的“格挡手段”——把此次事件解读为“枪支泛滥的悲剧”,并进而大谈“控枪的必要性”,顺手将悲剧的责任甩给一直阻挠其控枪努力的共和党人。去年“12.2”圣贝纳迪诺血案发生时他正是这么做的(事实上8年来只要美国本土发生重大渉枪案件他都这么如法炮制),只是戏法一变再变,如今还能“手到病除”么?

FBI是事发后第一个宣布事件的“暴恐”定性的官方机构,事实上这个著名的情报机构恐怕也会是“6.11”事件的输家。“9.11”后FBI顶住各种“干涉自由”之类非议压力,执意推动种种有争议做法,其自辩的理由正是“可充分掌握恐怖袭击情况”、“便于预警”、“能增加反恐安全系数”,但此次“6.11”事件的发生令这种自辩显得缺少了许多说服力。雪上加霜的是,佛罗里达当地FBI官员霍珀(Ronald Hopper)承认,FBI事实上2013和2014年两度以“涉恐嫌疑”为由对马迪恩展开调查,但最终都因证据不足不了了之,更以“不构成实质性威胁”为由将此人“脱锁”。2009年,美国情报部门就曾对尼日利亚银行家多次警告“我儿子有暴恐倾向”置若罔闻,结果那名尼日利亚银行家的儿子阿布杜穆塔拉卜(Omer Faruk Abdulmutallab)险些在当年圣诞节引爆了美航253航班,此次窘境重演,许多人难免会质疑,情报部门劳民伤财、兴师动众“搞情报”,何以会搞成这样?当然,FBI等情报机构同样可能“祸兮福所倚”,因此次事件的发生而获得更多经费和行动自由度。

今年美国大选的两大热门之一——希拉里.克林顿在事发后显得小心翼翼、字斟句酌,她谴责“造成悲剧的行为”,但尽量避免使用“暴恐”等定性词汇,甚至如某些美国观察家所言,似乎试图将焦点放在“恐同”而非“恐怖主义”上,这恐怕是希望避免因此刺激到自己的基本支持群体,并借机向基数庞大的同性恋及其支持群体示好。但这些都是有风险的:回避显而易见的暴恐问题,很可能得罪众多对安全敏感的选民,更何况许多人早就对其在反恐问题上的首鼠两端、左右摇摆啧有烦言,对其国务卿任上在中东事务方面的表现,及这些表现对全球原教旨恐怖势力的泛蓝、蔓延究竟应负什么责任议论纷纷。

此次暴恐事件最大的赢家恐怕是率先宣布对事件负责的ISIS。尽管种种迹象表明,这又是一起“独狼”事件,嫌犯马迪恩只是在线被“洗脑”,充其量算是国际恐怖网络的一个“外围”,甚至连“外围”都算不上,他的恐怖袭击行动也很可能是独立决断并实施的,但马迪恩毕竟在行凶前亲自致电“911”宣称效忠ISIS,且在网上多有亲ISIS言论,后者当然不会放过这个无本万利的良机——几乎不需付出什么代价,就可以赚回满满的人气、媒体关注和“胜利战果”,而这些对于其扩大“恐怖知名度”,和“基地”等其它极端恐怖组织争夺“恐怖话语权”及“恐怖物流、人力”的补充,对国际恐怖组织的生存、发展,是至关重要的。当然,由于马迪恩在平时网上对“基地”系恐怖组织同样多有赞誉追捧之辞,后者恐怕也不会放过借题发挥的机会。不过“福兮祸所伏”,占“现成便宜”也意味着必须承担随之而来的“美国愤怒”后果。

而另一个可能的赢家则是共和党及另一位总统热门候选人特朗普。事发后一直在反恐问题上“大嘴”的特朗普立即高呼“我说的应验了吧”,并咄咄逼人地要求奥巴马辞职,奥兰多的鲜血和生命让他甚至无需再冒“政治不正确”风险重复“不让穆斯林进入美国”的过激言论,只需摆出一副“你们懂的”表情,便可占得许多“票房红利”,而共和党也无需像民主党那样对事件的暴恐性质噤若寒蝉,大可借机猛烈抨击奥巴马政府反恐措施不力。不仅如此,由于此次受害群体、事发地点的特殊性,一贯在同性恋问题上“不讨巧”的共和党可能捡到一个“大红包”——如今他们甚至都不需要直接谈很容易让自己进退两难的同性恋问题,只需不断强调“安全”、“同情受害者”,就能从民主党那里挖到不少“彩虹人士”的选票。当然,在这个问题上同样是“过犹不及”,美国社会和选民都是“快餐化”和健忘的,愤怒或同情之类的情绪来得汹涌,去的也飞快,一旦热点消逝,他们仍在被冲淡的血迹边喋喋不休,就可能产生相反的效果。
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