US Decision to Sanction Kim Jong Un: Is US-North Korea Relationship ‘Crossing the Rubicon’?

Published in Kyunghyang
(South Korea) on 7 July 2016
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anthony Cho. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The United States has hit Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Worker’s Party in North Korea, with sanctions for violating human rights. Two days ago, the U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions on 15 individuals, including Chairman Kim, and eight organizations. They will be barred from entering the United States, have their assets in the United States frozen and will have all financial transactions suspended. Since U.S.-North Korea relations have already been severed, this situation is more of a symbolic action. However, it is obvious that North Korea will take as a major insult the branding of Chairman Kim — the [people's] supreme leader — as a perpetrator of human rights abuses.

By directly targeting Chairman Kim, the United States is sending a message that it will punish the regime regardless of [any change] in U.S.-North Korea relations. Through the Congress of the Worker’s Party and the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea proclaimed the Kim Jong Un era, and the imposition of sanctions at this time and during these major events is full of significance. Without North Korea giving up its Byungjin policy of parallel nuclear and economic development, there is no room for improvement for relations in Korea. Using the human rights card, a last resort for foreign relations, reveals a similar story. Because of this, whether it is the Obama administration or the next U.S. administration, it will be some time before U.S.-North Korea relations can be restored. U.S.-North Korea relations seem to have "crossed the Rubicon."

The United States bringing up the grave human rights situation in North Korea is consistent with the advocacy of universal human rights. North Korea’s political prison camps and the systematic and widespread abuse of human rights must come to a stop. However, although these recent measures may undermine North Korea’s authority, it is doubtful that they will have a real effect in improving human rights. The best-case scenario would be that North Korea accepts U.S. recommendations on [ensuring] human rights. But looking at North Korea’s attitude in the past, this is an unrealistic expectation. Rather, North Korea is more likely to exchange criticism and resist diplomatic pressure while making military threats. This situation would raise the political-military tension on the Korean peninsula. Moreover, North Korea is likely to have a negative reaction to the U.S.-South Korea joint military drills scheduled for next month.

It does not look like these sanctions on Chairman Kim will have a positive effect on resolving the issue of North Korean nuclear development. If these measures won’t improve the human rights situation nor resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, the United States cannot avoid the conclusion that its recent actions will deteriorate the U.S.-North Korea relationship and the situation on the Korean peninsula. We must carefully consider that the U.S.-North Korea policy does not only concern nuclear issues and human rights, but also influences inter-Korean relations and the Korean peninsula as a whole.


[사설]북 김정은 제재 결정한 미, 북·미관계 루비콘강 건너나

미국이 인권 탄압 혐의로 북한 김정은 노동당 위원장을 제재 대상으로 전격 지정했다. 미 재무부는 그제 김 위원장을 포함한 북한의 개인 15명과 기관 8곳을 제재 대상으로 지정, 발표했다. 이들은 미국 입국이 금지되고 미국 내 자금이 동결되며 거래가 중단된다. 북·미관계가 사실상 단절된 상황이니 상징적인 조치이다. 하지만 북한으로선 ‘최고존엄’인 김 위원장을 인권 범죄자로 낙인찍은 것이어서 커다란 모욕으로 받아들일 게 뻔하다.

미국이 김 위원장을 직접 겨냥한 것은 북한 정권을 응징하기 위해서는 북·미관계 파탄도 감수하겠다는 강력한 메시지다. 북한이 노동당대회와 최고인민회의 개최를 통해 김정은 시대를 선포하고, 본격 가동에 들어가는 시점에 제재 조치가 나온 것도 의미심장하다. 핵·경제 병진노선을 포기하지 않는 한 관계 개선의 여지가 없다는 뜻을 담은 것이다. 외교적으로 ‘마지막 수단’으로 통하는 인권 카드를 꺼내든 것도 마찬가지 맥락이다. 이로써 오바마 행정부 임기는 물론 차기 미 행정부 들어서도 상당한 기간 북·미관계 복원은 어려울 것 같다. 북·미관계는 루비콘강을 건넌 셈이다.

미국이 북한의 심각한 인권 상황을 거론한 것은 인류 보편의 인권에 부합하는 행동이다. 정치범 수용소 등 조직적이고 광범위한 북한의 인권 유린 행위는 당연히 중단해야 한다. 하지만 이번 조치로 북한의 권위가 손상되기는 하겠지만 과연 인권 개선 효과를 낳을지는 의문이다. 북한이 미국의 권고를 받아들여 인권을 개선하는 것이 최선이겠지만 북한의 과거 태도로 미뤄 볼 때 이런 기대는 비현실적이다. 오히려 북한은 비난 성명전 등 외교적 반발과 함께 군사적 위협 행위를 할 가능성이 있다. 한반도의 정치적·군사적 긴장 고조로 이어질 수 있는 상황이다. 더욱이 다음달에는 북한이 알레르기 반응을 보이는 한·미 연합군사훈련도 예정돼 있다.

김 위원장을 제재 대상에 포함시킨 것이 북핵 능력 고도화 차단 등 북핵 문제 해결에 긍정적으로 작용할 것 같지도 않다. 북한 인권 개선과 북핵 해결에 도움이 안된다면 미국의 이번 조치는 북·미관계와 한반도 정세를 악화시켰다는 평가를 피할 수 없을 것이다. 미국은 미국의 대북정책이 북핵 및 북한 인권뿐 아니라 한반도 정세와 남북관계에도 중대한 영향을 미친다는 사실을 숙고해야 한다.
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