Opening Pandora’s Box: The Decision To Deploy THAAD on the Korean Peninsula

On July 8, the South Korean and U.S. governments decided to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System on the Korean Peninsula. The day prior, the U.S. government took issue with North Korean human rights violations and targeted the chairman of the Korean Worker’s Party, Kim Jong-un, in a series of strong-arm policies. As these sanctions on Chairman Kim Jong-un extend to affect North Korea, THAAD deployment is a comprehensive decision that also affects China and Russia, and could trigger a political-military-security conflict in Northeast Asia. Dialogue and negotiations have been pushed back and a dangerous and anxious situation seems to be on the horizon. Simply put, the decision to deploy THAAD on the Korean Peninsula has opened “Pandora’s Box” in Northeast Asia.

Chinese and Russian Backlash Greater than Expected

South Korea and the United States opened a press conference at the Ministry of Defense stating, “South Korea and the U.S. have made the joint decision to deploy the THAAD system,” in order, the two nations continued in their joint statement, “to guarantee the security of the Republic of Korea and our people from North Korea’s nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile threats.” Aware of China and Russia, the two countries that oppose THAAD deployment on the Korean Peninsula, the joint statement emphasized, “If the THAAD system were deployed on the Korean Peninsula, it would be focused solely on North Korea.” Our government stated that it also relayed a similar explanation to China and Russia the day before.

However, this type of explanation will not get through to China or Russia. China and Russia have regularly and publicly opposed THAAD deployment on the Korean Peninsula as something that would tip the strategic balance between the United States and China, and the United States and Russia. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded immediately to the joint decision revealing a harsher tone and position of “extreme dissatisfaction and firm opposition.”* Furthermore, the South Korean ambassador to China, Kim Jang-soo, was summoned and a strong protest was lodged with him.

It is then inevitable that China and Russia’s opposition will burden our country in two major ways. The first, a diplomatic-security issue, is that the North Korean nuclear issue becomes more difficult to resolve and there is an increased likelihood of a new Cold War between South Korea-Japan-United States and North Korea-China-Russia on the Korean Peninsula. Up until now, our government was working tirelessly to gain China’s cooperation to address its biggest security threat, the North Korea nuclear issue. Even despite U.S.-Japanese opposition, President Park Geun-hye attended China’s Victory over Japan Day festivities in order to make inroads to Pyongyang. However, because of this decision, it is not an exaggeration to say all that effort was for nothing. Further, this decision means South Korea has now placed its foot in the U.S.-Japan-led missile defense system and encirclement of China. Since South Korea has now turned into a forward base to observe and check the Chinese and Russian military posture, South Korea is now at the center of a South Korea-U.S.-Japan versus North Korea-China-Russia confrontation. It is paradoxical that THAAD deployment, aimed to check North Korean provocations, has made the security situation on the Korean Peninsula more dangerous and unpredictable.

Secondly, Chinese-Russian opposition is likely to bring dark clouds to our economy. Chinese opposition will likely have a negative effect on trade, tourism, and other sectors of the economy. It is difficult not to worry when considering South Korea’s heavy economic reliance on China. China-related stocks are already slumping and creating sensitive reactions in the market.

If all other factors are excluded and we only look at the military aspect, it is true that deploying THAAD can help deter North Korean missile provocations. However, this logic is equivalent to not looking at the entirety of the chessboard and struggling to save one piece on the corner of the board. The only current warfare-ready THAAD system is deployed in Guam; its performance has not been sufficiently vetted; and the price for deployment is 1.5 - 2 trillion won. Even experts have pointed out that due to the short testing period, it would be difficult for THAAD to intercept North Korean missiles.

President Park Geun-hye’s Full Responsibility

From June 2014, when the Park Geun-hye government first publicly considered deploying the THAAD system with then-U.S. Forces Korea Commander Curtis Scaparrotti, until North Korea’s fourth nuclear test this year, the government consistently espoused the Three No’s – “no request, no consultation, no decision” – regarding THAAD. However, in this year’s presidential New Year’s address on Jan. 13, the government reversed course. If there were consultations between the United States and South Korea during this time of the Three No’s, the government was deceiving its own citizens and neighboring countries. If the policy was changed suddenly after North Korea’s fourth nuclear test, this decision is too sudden and emotional. Regardless, this is not something that a responsible government would do.

Following the government’s decision to deploy THAAD, the location for the deployment has become an object of great domestic concern. Military authorities stated that they intend to select a site within a few weeks, with the goal of operationalizing it by late next year. The discussed possible sites of Chilgok County in North Gyeongsang Province are already subject to fierce opposition and protest by local citizens and authorities.

Ultimately, President Park Geun-hye is the one responsible for this decision and must bear the full responsibility of the domestic and international aftermath.

*Translator’s note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified.