For Trump To Win the Election, Sanders Holds All the Cards

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 21 July 2016
by Qiu Zhibo (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
The results of delegate voting at the Republican National Convention were announced on July 19 officially nominating Donald Trump as the party's presidential candidate against Democrat Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House. After several long months of pregame calisthenics during the primaries, the drama of the general election has only just begun, but the plot has already proven to be quite the nail-biter. Who will claim the final victory? Who will dig deep and pull ahead down the final stretch?

In the opinion of this author, the individual commanding the greatest sway over the votes garnered by each candidate in the general election will be one who has already lost; to wit, Democratic presidential contender Bernie Sanders. Sanders recently made it official in declaring his support for Clinton to represent the Democratic Party in the race for the presidency. After many rounds of negotiations, Clinton in the end promised to incorporate into her own campaign platform Sanders' propositions on education, health care, and the minimum wage, among other issues. The two camps have yet to close the gap on other matters such as foreign policy and extensive reforms pertaining to political contributions, however.

The Chinese media have largely focused on the Republicans' offering in Trump, perpetually dogged by controversy as he is, and so have neglected the "political revolution" that Sanders has begun among young Americans and the impact that it will have on U.S. society and the future political direction of the country. Having gone from being a relatively unknown figure to having standing room only at his rallies, Sanders' unflagging perseverance over the past several decades has encouraged a generation of young Americans to challenge the power of the mainstream political elite and re-establish a more decentralized democratic system. It is well worth noting that Sanders' rise has drawn in a massive number of young and newly-minted voters, and that these neophytes' loyalty to the "political revolution" that Sanders stands for far exceeds any attachment to the Democratic Party.

If we look only at core views, there is none who matches Trump more closely than Sanders. In each of his speeches during the primaries, Sanders decried the Democratic establishment of which Clinton is emblematic, as well as the Wall Street financiers that symbolize the top percent of the population controlling the vast majority of society's wealth and resources. Promising to take "big money out of politics," Sanders torpedoed the youth's trust of political elites, and in its place instilled a sense of political thirst and enthusiasm within them. So when Sanders stands together with the establishment, announcing that he is prepared to do his utmost to ensure that Clinton becomes the next president of the United States, the resultant strong emotional disconnect is a bitter pill to swallow for many of his supporters, so much so that there are those among them who vow that they will "never vote for Hillary."

Under these circumstances, Clinton’s ability to easily woo over the 13 million votes cast for Sanders during the Democratic primaries remains a dubious prospect. And although Clinton and her team have said that they have a game plan, events as they unfold will not necessarily be as favorable as they might expect.

As donkey and elephant find themselves matched hoof for hoof, this runoff from the Democratic reserves will probably be considerably more than what current poll results suggest. Sample sizes for popular polls are typically minuscule, with the newest U.S. general election poll samples hovering at around 1,000 or 2,000 people who are surveyed. Bias in sampling methods and the political leanings of survey designers can make for relatively large inaccuracies as well.

The truth of the matter is that a portion of young Democratic voters who supported Sanders will likely vote independent, while another segment will choose Trump in a fit of despair. Yet another portion will perhaps not vote at all, or will still write Sanders' name on the ballot.

More than three months remain before the general election in November, and whether or not Clinton makes good on her promise to take guidance from Sanders' political views for her general election campaign is a factor that will also be decisive in winning back Sanders supporters' trust in the political elite, as well as their votes. Trump, for his part, is not sitting idle, but has extended the olive branch to disappointed and disaffected Sanders supporters, claiming that it is he who will continue the fight against the establishment and usher in change. As Sanders retires from the field, the contest between Clinton and Trump will, like that between “leavers” and “remainers,” be simplified into a binary choice: "keep the status quo," or "change the status quo." And should young voters "feeling the Bern" keep the embers of their disgruntlement and anger well stoked going into the general election, it's a pound to a penny that they will be casting their votes for change.

The author currently works at an international institution within the United States.


  美国共和党全国代表大会于当地时间19日宣布投票结果,特朗普正式成为总统候选人与民主党的希拉里竞逐入主白宫。经过长达几个月初选的铺垫,大选这台戏虽然才刚刚开始,但剧情已经跌宕起伏。谁将夺得最后的胜利?谁会影响最后的进程?
  笔者认为影响这两人在大选阶段得票数的是一个“落选者”——民主党总统竞选人伯尼·桑德斯。不久前,桑德斯正式宣布支持希拉里代表民主党竞逐美国总统。经过多轮谈判,希拉里最终承诺将桑德斯在教育、医疗和最低工资等方面的政治主张纳入自己的竞选政策。然而双方在外交政策和彻底改革政治献金等方面仍存在差异。
  中国国 内媒体大多聚焦在饱受争议的共和党候选人特朗普身上,却忽略了桑德斯及其在美国年轻一代掀起的“政治革命”对美国社会和未来政治走向的影响。从默默无闻到 集会场场爆满,桑德斯几十年坚持不懈的精神鼓舞了一代美国年轻人勇于挑战主流政治精英的权威,重新树立更广泛的民主制度。值得关注的是,桑德斯的崛起吸引 了大量年轻的新兴选民。而这些选民对于桑德斯所代表的“政治革命”的忠诚度远远高于他们对于民主党的忠诚度。
  如果仅从部分核心观点来看,与特朗普最接近的是桑德斯。桑德斯在每一场预选演讲中,痛斥希 拉里所代表的民主党建制派和华尔街金融家所代表的1%人口占有了社会绝大部分财富和资源,许诺彻底改变“金钱主导政治”的现状。大大降低了年轻人对政治精 英的信任度,燃起了许多年轻人对于政治的渴望和激情。当桑德斯与建制派站在一起,宣布他准备尽己所能来确保希拉里成为下一任美国总统时,这种强烈的情感反 差让很多桑德斯的支持者表示难以接受。甚至有桑德斯的支持者打出“决不给希拉里投票”的牌子。
  在这种情况下,希拉里能否轻松赢得民主党初选中支持桑德斯的1300万选民手中的选票,还是一个很大的疑问。虽然希拉里及其团队表示成竹在胸,但实际情况未必像他们料想中那样乐观。
  在民主党和共和党势均力敌的情况下,民主党票仓的流失很有可能要远远高于现在民意调查的结果。民意调查的样本基数往往很小,最新关于美国大选的民调样本往往都在一两千人左右。抽样方法的偏差,以及民调设计者的心理偏向往往会引起较大的误差。
  事实上,支持桑德斯的民主党年轻选民很可能会一部分投给独立党派候选人;一部分“破罐破摔”投给特朗普;而另一部分或是不投票,或是仍然在选票上写上桑德斯的名字。
  离11月大选还有三个多月,希拉里会否兑现将桑德斯政治主张变成大选竞选纲领的承 诺,也决定着桑德斯的支持者能否重新“相信”政治精英,将选票投给她。而希拉里的对手特朗普也不甘落后,向失望和愤怒的桑德斯支持者抛出橄榄枝,坚称自己 会继续挑战建制派,带来改变。随着桑德斯的“退出”,希拉里和特朗普的竞争,也会像留欧派和脱欧派的竞争一样,简化为二选一:“维持现状”还是“改变现 状”。如果年轻的桑德斯支持者将失望和愤怒的情绪持续到大选中,很有可能会将选票投给“改变现状”。
(作者是驻美国际机构工作人员)
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