What Does the Trump Victory Mean for the World?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 9 November 2016
by Li Guangdou (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yuzhi Yang. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
The tumultuous American presidential election, which happens every four years, has finally ended. Donald Trump won.

Before “email gate,” Hillary’s popular support always seemed greater than Trump’s, so how did Trump make a comeback? Trump’s election demonstrates Americans’ disgust with elitist politics. China’s rise and America’s decline has made Americans retreat to an isolationist Americanism, in which America belongs to Americans and not the world. From now on, America will not be concerned with the world, only itself. Average American citizens don’t want their country to police the world; they want an experienced businessman to revive the country’s economy.

Trump won. Will he really fulfill his ridiculous claims? Let’s see what he actually said during the election.

Trump said China was a country which manipulated currency, and he said he would punish China with sanctions, trade wars, and tariffs on Chinese products to bring back job opportunities for Americans. He said he would build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and make Mexico pay for it; that he would engage in trade wars with new countries to earn back American jobs; that America has no responsibility to maintain world peace, and therefore he would cut NATO spending; and that Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea need to be more independent. He also said that if he were elected, he would also improve relations with Vladimir Putin, etc. Trump said his top diplomatic adviser was himself, and that he was gifted in that area.

Before the FBI decided to investigate the Clinton email charges, Hillary had consistently led Trump in all the polls. Why was there such a big difference between the polls and the election results? Polls are the weather vanes in an election, but none of them, whether conducted online or via phone, can be trusted 100 percent. People can hide their real opinions in polls, especially in dictatorships. It matters more how much money people give you and not how many “likes” you receive. In addition to online promotion, support on the ground and door-to-door campaigning often had more impact, which was the Republicans’ strong suit.

Let’s also take a look at Trump’s campaign team. The CEO of Trump’s campaign, Stephen Bannon, ran the extreme right-wing site Breitbart News, and Trump is known for his right-wing views himself. When Trump is sworn in as president, America’s mainstream ideology will turn to the right.

While 93 percent of the votes cast in Washington, D.C. were for Hillary, the political elite does not decide America’s direction anymore. In this election, all of the mainstream media and all of the business titans asked people not to vote for Trump, but the voters did anyway. An America which is unified in its public opinion no longer exists; there are divisions between the grassroots and the elite. For the first time in over 200 years, the awakening of the grassroots population has led to an America that is fractured in opinion and which lacks consensus.

Trump’s capriciousness and contrary nature will make it hard for the world to adjust. He’s bound to inflict enormous shock on America and the world. Every leader in the world has to learn how to deal with characters like Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte.

The author is a renowned brand strategist in China and the brand adviser for CCTV.


轰轰烈烈、四年一度的美国总统大选终于落下帷幕,特朗普赢了。

在邮件门之前,希拉里的民调支持率一直领先于特朗普。为什么特朗普会反超呢?这说明美国人已经厌倦了精英政治,而中国的崛起和美国衰落让美国人退回了孤立的“美国主义”:美国是美国人的美国,而不是全世界的美国。从今以后美国人不再关心全世界,开始只关心自己。美国的普罗大众不再希望去当世界警察;而是希望一个懂行的商人来重振美国经济。

特朗普赢了,他那些不靠谱的言论真的会实施吗?先回顾一下特朗普竞选时候说了些什么?

当选后立即宣布中国是汇率操纵国,制裁中国并与中国开展贸易战,通过对来自中国的货物施加关税予以惩罚,重新为美国人夺回工作机会;在美墨边境修一道墙,让墨西哥买单;跟新兴国家打贸易战,为美国人夺回工作岗位;美国没必要为维护世界和平劳心劳力,北约军费支出要减减,日本、韩国那些亚洲盟友们适当自力更生一些;如果当选,会和普京搞好关系等等。特朗普说:“我的首席外交政策顾问就是我自己,我在这种事上有很好的天赋。”

在FBI决定启邮件门调查之前的所有民意调查中,希拉里支持率一直领于特朗普。为什么民意调查会和实际结果出现这么大的反差:民调是选举的风向标,但无论是网络民意,还是电话民调,都不能百分之百信赖。因为在民意调查中人们会隐藏自己的真实意图,在专制国家尤其如此。关键不是有多少粉丝给你点赞,而是看有多少人愿意出钱打赏。除了线上动员,地推和挨家挨户拜票收效更大,而这一直是共和党的强项。

再看一下特朗普的竞选团队,特朗普竞选活动执行总裁斯蒂芬•班农,曾是极右翼网站Breitbart News的负责人,特朗普本人就以右翼主义出名,特朗普若成为美国总统,那么美国的主流意识形态就要集体往右转了。

美国首都所在的哥伦比亚特区有93%的的选票都投给了希拉里,但政治精英已决定不了美国的走向。这次美国大选,所有美国主流媒体和商界大佬都号召大家不要投票给特朗普,但选民却把选票投给了这个不靠谱的人。一个民意统一的美国不复存在,美国底层和精英出现分歧,底层的觉醒带来了200多年首次出现的一个“民意分裂、失去共识”最难管制的美国。

特朗普的任性和出尔反尔,会让全世界不适应,他一定会在美国和世界掀起巨大的震动,全世界领导人都要学习如何与一个杜特尔特式的人物相处。(作者简介 李光斗:中国品牌第一人、著名品牌战略专家、中央电视台品牌顾问 )
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