The Significance of Sino-US Relations Trumps Trump’s Petty Politicizing

Published in Wen Wei Po
(Hong Kong) on 10 February 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chase Coulson. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.

 

 

President Donald Trump wrote a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping to express New Year’s wishes, and to say that he looks forward to working with Chairman Xi in promoting constructive bilateral relations. China's Foreign Ministry gave an enthusiastic thumbs-up to Trump’s expression of holiday respects to both Xi Jinping and the Chinese people. Mutual respect and win-win cooperation is the only real choice for the two countries, and Trump’s expression of goodwill should be welcomed on the part of China. Trump took office in the wake of a bawdy demonstration of his “rules are made to be broken” style, and time and time again he has taken the hard-line approach toward Sino-U.S. relations, which has left the rest of the world biting its nails wondering what the prospects of Sino-American relations may be.

China and America are the two most powerful individual economies in the current global village paradigm, and the interests of the two are tightly interwoven; the state of relations between the two literally influences the prosperity and stability of the entire world. China is willing to maintain good relations with the United States, but has enough power to go toe-to-toe with the U.S. if it is ever challenged. China wants President Trump to exercise caution in all his dealings, and act responsibly in advancing the healthy development of Sino-US relations and to refrain from pushing the two into a sticky situation in which neither side benefits, and both sides suffer.

During the Chinese New Year, each and every past leader of the free world has paid holiday respects to the Chinese people via a friendly phone call, with the exception of Mr. Trump, who broke this longstanding precedent. Be that as it may, since Trump took office, the White House has been extremely active in foreign affairs, and though the highest leadership in both China and the U.S. have exchanged pleasantries over the phone, given Trump’s “historic” telephonic discussions with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, compounded with the fact that Trump has insinuated the U.S. will cut off trade dealings with China, America needs to look in the mirror and ask itself if it is still complying with the “One China” doctrine.

As we know from many such cases, concerns about the state of Sino-U.S. relations and whether or not relations will retrogress are certain to occur. This time around, Trump’s letter to the Chinese president expressing his holiday wishes to the Chinese people and his hope of further developing constructive relations with China was a bit belated. There is a local Cantonese idiom that goes, “Ci Dou Hou Gwo Mou Dou,” which roughly translates to, “better late than never.” President Trump’s letter should be viewed as a goodwill gesture toward China and a good sign with a certain symbolic significance that positive Sino-American relations are still ahead.

Whether or not Trump's belated letter of good wishes for a festive New Year signifies a turn in Sino-U.S. relations from cloudy and murky to sunny and cheery is unfortunately quite uncertain. In campaigning for the office of commander in chief, Trump decried China as a “currency manipulator” that is “stealing American industry,” and the attitude toward China of the national security team he assembled after assuming office has been colored in palpably hawkish overtones, especially from his newly minted National Security Council and the White House National Trade Council, whose spearheads are pointed straight at China’s gullet from every possible direction. An even greater threat is Trump’s desire to brand China as a “currency manipulator” and slap Chinese commodities with hefty import tariffs. Trump appointed Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who has long maintained a hardline stance of checking and rebalancing China, and the motivation behind his choosing to visit Korea and Japan is self-evident.

To repay the voters who put him in office, since his ascension Trump has put forth a series of highly controversial policies that have led to widespread dispute and suspicion. And who can say for certain that, after some time Trump won’t try to divert the public’s attention by waving the banner of “fair trade,” “currency manipulation,” and “the South China Sea dispute,” in order to get China into hot water. Whether Trump sincerely wants to bring real and tangible benefit to Sino-U.S. relations … well, to answer that question we must first keep our eyes and ears open.

President Xi Jinping noted that China and America have a heavy burden on their shoulders in maintaining world peace and stability, and promoting the development of progress and prosperity, President Xi Jinping noting also that the two have a wide array of common interests. The two nations are extraordinary in many similar ways: their economies represent one-third of world economic productivity; their nations represent one-fourth of the world population and one-fifth of its total trade. Bilateral trade between China and America tops $5,000 billion per year, and in 2015 China became the largest trade partner of the United States.

And then there is the little matter of China still holding over $1 billion worth of U.S. treasury bonds. Sino-U.S. relations can promote stable and healthy development only at such time as there is no conflict or rivalry, and when there is mutual respect, cooperation and a win-win attitude between them. If the United States antagonizes China and attempts to completely suppress it economically and militarily, then it will invite future global disaster–but it looks like America is content to cut off its nose to spite its face. A headline in Fortune magazine pointed out, “It won’t be easy for Trump to bully China.” While the article itself points out, “…if the world's two largest economies get into a mutually destructive economic confrontation, the real question won't be who has the biggest GDP, but which country has the highest threshold for pain.”

In a complex and ever changing geopolitical landscape, the government of China is ever more mature and confident, with more concentrated strategic ingenuity. It’s quite easy to predict that, in the early days of Trump’s ascension to politics’ highest seat, Sino-U.S. relations may take some twists and turns, and even a nasty beating or two, but the development of positive and constructive Sino-U.S. relations still represents the general trend, and fits in snuggly with America’s national interests, while a no-win situation is something that the vast majority of the wise and sagacious in America absolutely do not want to see made manifest. There’s no doubt that President Trump is going to understand the extreme importance of Sino-U.S. relations more clearly.


特朗普對華釋善意 望謹慎行事免雙輸

2017-02-10

美國總統特朗普致函國家主席習近平,向中國人民拜晚年,並期待與習近平推動惠及兩國的建設性中美關係。中國外交部對此表示,中方高度讚賞特朗普對習近平及中國人民的節日祝賀。中美相互尊重、合作共贏才是兩國唯一的正確選擇,特朗普對華釋出善意,值得歡迎肯定。特朗普上任以來充分展示其「打破常規」的作風,屢次就中美關係作出強硬表態,令外界對中美關係發展前景充滿憂慮。中美是當今世界最大的兩個經濟體,利益緊密攸關,兩國關係好壞,直接影響全球繁榮穩定。中國願與美國保持良好關係,但也有足夠實力應對美國的挑戰。希望特朗普總統謹慎行事,負責任地推動中美關係健康發展,不要做出兩敗俱傷的事情來。
中國農曆新年之際,世界主要大國領袖紛紛向中國人民拜年,獨缺特朗普,這也打破了前3位美國總統的慣例。不僅如此,特朗普就任以來,白宮對外聯絡活躍,雖說中美最高領導人也通過一次電話,但特朗普卻「歷史性地」與台灣地區領導人蔡英文進行了電話交談;特朗普還曾放話,中國如在貿易等問題不與美國合作,美國要考慮是否繼續遵守「一中」原則,凡此種種不能不引起人們對中美關係可能將走向倒退的擔憂。今次,特朗普致函國家主席習近平,向中國人民拜晚年,希望與中方發展建設性關係,廣東話有句俗語,遲到好過無到。特朗普總統的信件應視為向中國釋出善意的積極訊號,對中美關係保持穩定具有一定象徵意義。
特朗普晚來的賀信,是否意味中美關係由陰轉晴,恐怕也未必。特朗普在競選總統期間曾一再指責中國「操縱匯率」、「偷走美國就業」,上任後其組建的國安團隊對華鷹派色彩濃厚,尤其是其改組的國安會以及成立的白宮全國貿易委員會,處處將矛頭對準中國。特朗普更威脅要將中國列為「匯率操縱國」,對中國商品徵收高額關稅。特朗普任命的國防部長馬蒂斯,就持制衡中國的強硬立場,其首次出訪選擇日韓,用意不言而喻。特朗普為報答選民,上任以來推出一系列極具爭議性的政策,引起較大爭議和質疑,誰也不能保證,日後為了轉移視線,特朗普不會打着兌現承諾的旗號,拿貿易、匯率和南海等議題找中國的麻煩。特朗普是否真心實意推動惠及中美的建設性關係,要聽其言,更要觀其行。
習近平主席指出,中美兩國在維護世界和平穩定、促進全球發展繁榮等方面肩負着特殊的重要責任,擁有廣泛的共同利益。中美兩國經濟總量佔世界1/3、人口佔世界1/4、貿易總量佔世界1/5。中美雙邊貿易額高達每年5000多億美元,2015年起中國已成為美國的最大貿易夥伴,中國還持有過萬億美元的美國國債。中美只有不衝突不對抗、相互尊重、合作共贏,才能實質推動中美關係穩健發展。美國敵視中國,企圖在經濟上、軍事上全面遏制中國,必將給世界帶來災難,美國也害人害己。美國《財富》雜誌的文章指出,「特朗普要欺負中國,並不那麼容易。」「如果世界上最大的兩個經濟體進入經濟上相互摧毀的狀態,真正的問題並非誰的GDP最大,而是哪個國家承受痛苦的能力最強。」中國政府在複雜多變的國際舞台上愈來愈成熟和自信,越來越富有戰略定力。可以預言,即使特朗普當政之初中美關係可能遇到波折甚至大的衝擊,但中美發展建設性關係仍將是大勢所趨,也符合美國的國家利益,而雙輸局面是廣大美國人民和有識之士所不願看到的,特朗普總統將越來越理解中美關係的極端重要性。
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