South Korea Truly Values the US; Is This Good?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on Feb. 3, 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fiona McAllister. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
On Feb. 2, South Korea became the first country to be visited by the newly appointed Defense Secretary James Mattis. The acting South Korean president was quick to meet with Mattis, and both sides emphasized the need for a “joint response to the threat of North Korea.” Mattis reiterated the American promise to defend South Korea, and conveyed Trump’s belief in the “high importance of the U.S.-South Korean alliance.” Mattis also told reporters that Pyongyang’s “provocative behavior” is the sole reason for the U.S.’s deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system in South Korea. “There is no other country that needs to be concerned about THAAD other than North Korea,”Mattis said.

South Koreans seemed excited that their country was the first to be visited by Mattis. Previously, Trump had stated that he wanted South Korea and Japan to contribute more to the cost of U.S. troops stationed in their countries, and that he did not attach too much importance to relations with allied nations, causing great concern to Seoul and Tokyo.

It seems as if Mattis has come to calm South Korea and Japan; perhaps he will mention in passing the cost of the stationed troops. In general, South Koreans are a little confused, they not only attach importance to Trump’s government reaffirming its promise of security for South Korea, but they also care about where on the list of America’s priorities their country stands. After visiting Seoul, Mattis visited Tokyo. The order of his visits pleased South Koreans because during previous visits to East Asia, U.S. secretaries of defense visited Tokyo before they visited Seoul.

South Korea apparently sees the U.S. as its savior; North Korea’s nuclear activities really seem to be scaring them. Seoul has already turned toward the U.S. and has let itself be controlled by the United States.

Seoul’s independent diplomacy is almost dead, even its ability to independently think politically is seriously withering. Because South Korea has turned toward the U.S., it will never be able to settle its security concerns. South Korea originally played an independent role in the issues of the peninsula, but it has actively renounced this role. Washington’s interest in peace for the peninsula is certainly lower than that of Seoul. South Korea’s last bargaining chip is to urge the U.S. to consider the benefits to South Korea when drawing up its policy in the peninsula.

The issues between North and South Korea, the nuclear issues of recent years, and Washington’s policy of controlling China are problems in the peninsula. It is hard for Seoul to grasp that it will soon be reduced to a chess piece for Washington.

This is the sorrow of South Koreans, and the sorrow of all of Northeast Asia. Not long ago, South Korea was full of mettle and proud of its achievements. Now, however, in a flash it has changed and now looks quivering toward the United States. Regrettably, China is unable to assuage South Korea’s fears. Seoul wants Beijing to act as if THAAD is only to be used to handle the North Korean nuclear threat; but because this is not the case, the Chinese cannot join the South Koreans in projecting their confused role.

The THAAD issue involves the quality of China’s strategy of nuclear deterrence. China is determined to ensure that its own continually increasing nuclear deterrent power is strong; maybe these games have already just begun. South Korea has half-knowingly, half-unknowingly, been drawn into a power game. This will be a long-term burden, one that South Korea will slowly have to bear.

Mattis said that THAAD will not target any country other than North Korea; China does not take this statement seriously. If Washington changes its tough tone, China will not care. China has already adapted to the fact that the U.S. is strengthening its alliances with South Korea and Japan. If everybody really wants to play “big game” in Northeast Asia, China will be obliged to join them. But please take note: China will not procrastinate like other countries do.


韩国2日成为美国新任国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯首次出访的首站国家,韩国代总统及高官迅速与马蒂斯会见,双方强调了“共同应对朝鲜威胁”,马蒂斯重申了美国对韩防卫承诺,转达了特朗普“高度重视美韩同盟”的态度。马蒂斯还对记者说,“平壤的挑衅行为”是美国在韩部署“萨德”系统的唯一理由,“没有其他任何一个国家需要为部署‘萨德’担心”。

  韩国舆论对自己国家成为马蒂斯的“首访首站”表现出兴奋,就像他们心中的一块石头落地了一样。此前特朗普表示要让韩日多分担美国驻军的费用,并且有不太重视同盟国关系的意思,让首尔和东京都很担心。

  马蒂斯像是来给韩日吃定心丸的,尽管也有人猜测,他或许会“顺便提及”驻军费用的问题。总的来看,韩国人的心绪有些乱,他们不仅重视特朗普政府重申对韩安全承诺,而且很在意自己国家在美国外交重要性排序中的位置。马蒂斯先来首尔后去东京,这一与以往美国防长来东亚顺序的调换也很让他们开心。

  韩国人似乎在把美国当成“救星”,朝鲜的核活动看来的确把他们吓住了。首尔已经彻底倒向美国,并且听任后者摆布。

  首尔的独立外交差不多已死,甚至独立政治思维能力也严重萎缩。因为这样完全倒向美国并不能解决韩国的安全困境,在半岛问题中,韩国本来是有一个独立角色的,但是它主动放弃了这个角色。华盛顿对半岛和平的兴趣及执着肯定比首尔低,韩国在放弃促美国在制定半岛政策时多考虑韩国利益的最后筹码。

  半岛上既有南北问题,又有这些年冒出来的核问题,还加上了华盛顿牵制中国的更大战略考虑。首尔很难把握这一切,只好简化它们,最后做了华盛顿的棋子。

  这是韩国人的悲哀,也是整个东北亚的悲哀。就在不久以前,韩国还意气风发,踌躇满志,在大国之间率意施展平衡术。然而转眼之间,它就像要重新退缩成一个仰望着美国哆哆嗦嗦的小角色。

  非常遗憾,中国没有能力帮助韩国去除它的恐惧。首尔希望北京真的就当是“萨德”只用来对付朝鲜核威胁,但因为它的确不是这样,中国人不能跟着韩国人一样装糊涂。

  “萨德”问题涉及中国战略核威慑的质量,中国确保自己核威慑力不断提升的决心非常坚定,相关博弈或许刚刚开始。韩国半清楚半糊涂地卷入大国博弈,这个包袱将是长期的,相关代价韩国只能慢慢承受。

  马蒂斯说“萨德”不针对朝鲜之外的任何国家,中国不会当真。华盛顿如果变个什么强硬的调子,北京也不会在意。对于美国加强美韩及美日同盟,中国也已适应。如果大家都愿意在东北亚“玩大的”,中国只能奉陪。请注意,中国“耗”的能力一定不比其他各方低。
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