The Trump Administration’s First 100 Days – Has the US Changed?

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 1 May 2017
by Wu Zurong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fiona McAllister. Edited by Christine Murrison.
On Jan. 20, 2017, the Republican Party’s presidential candidate, Donald Trump, was sworn in as the 45th president of the United States. In his speech, he stated that he would take the power from those in Washington and give it to the people, reinforce unity, bring an end to domestic in-fighting, and adopt an “America First” strategy to make America great again. Trump’s declaration as he took office sounded as if he were declaring to the world that the U.S. was on the eve of a revolutionary transformation. However, on April 29, the first 100 days of his administration were up, and there has been no complete transformation of the U.S. under Trump’s leadership. Trump’s grand plans to transform the U.S. have met with crushing defeat; although in individual areas he has had valuable success, his entire strategy needs revision and a return to reality to follow a traditional path.

Trump’s aspiration to fundamentally change American politics is separated from reality, the thwarted implementation of his policies inevitable. First of all, giving power back to the people is not an empty political slogan. To achieve a change of power of this kind would first require a fundamental systematic change to a form of government which serves the people. As a very rich man, Trump clearly has no intention of overthrowing the current capitalist system which serves the rich.

Secondly, Trump’s presidential power is restricted. The reasonably priced health care law of former President Obama brought benefits to a large section of the U.S. population; the Republican Party went to extremes to oppose it for several years without success. Now, although the Republicans control the White House and Congress, they have failed to achieve a general consensus within society, and have retreated in the face of confrontation in Congress. The president’s immigration ban was blocked by a federal judge and the amended version was subsequently frozen, causing a blow to the Trump government’s prestige. The ban relates to immigration and religion, among other issues. There are clauses expressly written into the Constitution, not only to defend national security and to take presidential authority into consideration, but which also allows for the establishment and enforcement of new regulations. As for his energy independence executive order, primarily aimed at Obama’s clean energy plan, to loosen the restrictions on CO2 emissions by power plants, and which has drawn opposition from 23 states, local governments and environmental organizations, it will not be plain sailing. Meanwhile, The United States’ promises with regard to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions have now been called into question by the international community.

Thirdly, as the only superpower, America’s well-being is highly intertwined with that of all other countries in the world. Every foreign policy being tangled and complicated, and subjectively doing just as it pleases, will inevitably harm America's own interests. The U.S. policy toward Russia, NATO and China has already basically returned to pragmatic conventions. The claims Trump made during his election campaign regarding rapidly improving relations with Russia, calling NATO outdated, and claims of putting China under pressure have proved inopportune and not beneficial to the U.S.

Trump’s new policy continues to advance, and has made some important progress. First of all, by cleverly changing the voting rules, Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch passed through Congress and became a Supreme Court justice, which tipped the scales of the Supreme Court in favor of the conservative faction. Secondly, via newly established White House offices, political lobbying and appointment of officials, regulations are being reformed to raise governmental efficiency. Thirdly, although the president’s immigration ban cannot be wholly implemented, current immigration laws are in the process of being tightened, undocumented immigrants with criminal records will be strictly investigated and some will be sent back to their home country. Entry visa requirements are once again being examined from a strict and tight perspective. Fourth, concerning foreign political affairs, the U.S.’s exit from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement has already been implemented, honoring Trump’s election campaign promise. Settling the North Korean nuclear and missile issue has received significant attention; the president rarely meets with the 15 member countries from the United Nations Security Council. Congressional specialists listen to administrative authorities in relation to the North Korean situation. The secretary of state plans to preside over the United Nations Security Council minister level conference to seek a plan to settle the situation. At the same time, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system has been deployed to South Korea, expanding both South Korea and Japan’s military exercises and military deployments on the periphery of North Korea. The military operations in Syria and Afghanistan, as well as the negotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement and trade negotiations with its trading partners have received international attention.

The taxation reform plan recently gave rise to a new policy of domestic politics that will have far-reaching effects. Significantly reducing taxes for businesses and citizens to raise the economic competitiveness of the American economy, to promote economic growth and to increase citizens’ income will no doubt make a bad situation worse considering the $20 trillion deficit. Hoping for rapid economic growth to increase household incomes by cutting taxes is very likely to fail. During the first 100 days of the Trump administration, the federal budget deadlock has once again caused problems for the White House, with both parties playing games which threaten the regular functioning of government. This just demonstrates Trump's inability to overcome the restrictions of the capitalist system’s market dominance to implement real change. Fundamentally closing the widening gap between the rich and poor, racial discrimination, increase in violent crime, and fierce political battles are problems that are so hard to solve they feel unachievable.

The author is a researcher at the China Foundation for International Studies.


吴祖荣:特朗普施政百日,美国变了吗

2017年1月20日,美国共和党总统候选人特朗普在宣誓就任第45任总统的演说中表示,他将把权力从首都华盛顿的权贵手中交还给人民,加强团结,结束国内恶斗,采取美国优先战略,使美国再次强大。特朗普的就职宣言好像向世界发出美国即将发生革命性变革的强烈信号。然而,4月29日施政百日到了,在特朗普领导下的美国并没有出现翻天覆地的新变化。特朗普改变美国的宏伟计划遭遇重挫,虽在个别重要议题和领域取得宝贵胜利,但总体战略被迫调整,回归现实、传统路线已成为基本取向。
  特朗普从根本上改变美国的政治意愿脱离实际,政策执行受挫势在必然。首先,把权力交还人民不是一句空洞的政治口号。要实现权力的这种转移必须优先把国家根本制度改变为为广大人民服务的政治体制。身为超级富人的特朗普显然无意推翻现有为有钱人服务的资本主义制度。其次,特朗普的总统权力受到各方制约。奥巴马政府制定的平价医保法案涉及广大美国公民的切身利益,共和党从一开始就极力反对,数年未能成功。现在,共和党虽然掌控白宫和国会,但仍未能形成全社会最大共识,在国会对决中只能暂时知难而退。总统发布的入境限令先被联邦法官封杀,修改后的文本出台后又被冻结,给特朗普政府威望带来沉重打击。入境限令涉及移民、宗教等宪法或法律有明文规定的条款,不是光从维护国家安全利益和总统权威考虑就能另立新规、强制执行的。至于他的能源独立行政令,主要指向奥巴马的清洁发电计划,放松对发电厂排放二氧化碳的限制,引起23个州、地方政府和环保组织的反对,执行难以一帆风顺,同时,美国对2015年气候变化巴黎协定有关温室气体排放的承诺也受到国际社会质疑。第三,作为唯一超级大国,美国的利益与世界各国高度融合,长期形成的各项外交政策错综复杂,主观随意突变必然损害自身利益。美国对俄罗斯、北约和中国的政策已基本回归务实传统,特朗普在竞选中表达的快速改善对俄关系、宣布北约过时、对中国施压等主张都已证明不合时宜,对美不利。
  特朗普新政持续推进,也取得一些重要进展。首先,巧妙通过修改投票表决规则,顺利让特朗普提名的法官戈萨奇在国会过关,成为最高法院大法官,从而促使最高法院政治天平向保守派倾斜。其次,通过新设创新办公室等白宫机构,推进对有关政治游说,官员任用、提高政府效率等的规章制度改革。第三,虽然总统的入境限令不能全面执行,但根据现有法规收紧移民政策的举措正在推进,有犯罪记录的无证移民受到严格审查,有的被遣送回国;入境签证规定正在重新审理,从紧从严是主要取向。第四,在涉外事务中,退出跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定已经实现,兑现了特朗普竞选承诺。解决朝鲜核和导弹问题受到异常重视,总统罕见会见联合国安理会15个成员国常驻联合国代表,国会专门听取行政当局有关朝鲜形势吹风,国务卿计划主持联合国安理会部长级会议,寻求解决方案;同时加紧在韩部署萨德反导系统进程,扩大同韩国和日本的军事演习和在朝鲜周边的军事部署。在叙利亚和阿富汗的军事行动以及重新谈判北美自由贸易协定和对经贸伙伴的经贸谈判政策动向也颇受国际社会关注。
  近日出台的税收改革方案是特朗普新政一项对内政具有深远影响的重大举措。大幅减少对企业和公民的税收有利于提高美国经济竞争力、促进经济增长,增加居民收入,但对已有20万亿美元财政预算赤字的国库来说,无疑是雪上加霜;指望经济出现高速增长增加财政收入、以弥补税收减少的计划很容易落空。在特朗普施政百日之际,值逢联邦政府预算僵局再次困扰白宫,两党围绕预算案的博弈威胁着政府的正常运行。这恰好说明特朗普新政无力冲破国际垄断资本主义体制束缚,实施革命性变革的现实。根本解决贫富差距扩大、种族歧视、暴力犯罪增多和党派恶斗等老大难顽症更是遥遥无期。(作者是中国国际问题研究基金会研究员)
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